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Economics · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | - | 79% | 79% | - |
| Exactly 1 cut | - | 16.8% | 16.8% | - |
| Exactly 2 cuts | - | 5% | 5% | - |
| Exactly 3 cuts | - | 1.9% | 1.9% | - |
| Exactly 5 cuts | - | 0.9% |
| 0.9% |
| - |
| Exactly 4 cuts | - | 0.9% | 0.9% | - |
| Exactly 7 cuts | - | 0.4% | 0.4% | - |
| Exactly 6 cuts | - | 0.4% | 0.4% | - |
| Exactly 9 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 8 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 20 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 19 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 18 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 17 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 16 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 15 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 14 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 13 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 12 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 11 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
| Exactly 10 cuts | - | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
Combined open interest
$732k
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
N/A
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$732k
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$911k
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$911k
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$29.8k
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$29.8k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Rules unavailable in snapshot.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf the Fed cuts 9 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
$82.8k Vol.