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Science and Technology · Multi-outcome
Consensus is open-interest weighted across venues with eligible prices.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Consensus | Venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | - | 66% | 66% | - |
| ChatGPT | - | 14.4% | 14.4% | - |
| Gemini | - | 12.8% | 12.8% | - |
| Grok | - | 6.8% | 6.8% | - |
| Muse Spark | - | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| - |
| Qwen | - | 0.7% | 0.7% | - |
| Ernie | - | 0.5% | 0.5% | - |
Combined open interest
$828k
Polymarket locked USDC plus Kalshi max-payout notional.
Polymarket OI
N/A
Locked USDC reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi OI
$828k
Contracts multiplied by max-payout notional.
Polymarket volume
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD.
Kalshi volume
$1.05M
Kalshi-reported contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Combined volume
$1.05M
Polymarket traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Combined 24h volume
$15.1k
Polymarket 24h traded USD plus Kalshi $1 face-value contract volume.
Polymarket 24h
N/A
Price-weighted traded USD reported by Polymarket.
Kalshi 24h
$15.1k
Kalshi-reported 24h contracts at $1 face value when captured.
Polymarket resolution
Rules unavailable in snapshot.
Kalshi resolution
Open venueIf xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.