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0xfe9455e2cad5257b26547af62cbbfd75c8968a3d
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
67% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (61%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.80).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:46:46 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $42.7k | $160k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $8.24k | $81.5k | $63.6k |
| Win rate | N/A | 49% | 58% | 61% |
| ROI | N/A | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.001 | 0.404 | 0.410 |
| Markets | 5 | 46 | 61 | 115 |
| Best day | N/A | $2.43k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 1.14 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $235 | $1.46k | $935 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $-265 | $335 | $67 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 1.21 | 0.98 | 0.80 |
| Largest win | N/A | $26.5k | $136k | $136k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-23.4k | $-108k | $-108k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | $14.8k | $11.3k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.001 | 4.199 | 1.168 |
| Calmar | 11.733 | 11.733 | 11.733 | 11.733 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 39% | 46% | 45% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 75% | 73% | 70% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 84% | 87% | 85% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 243 | 4540 | 8262 | 24396 |
| Unique markets | 5 | 46 | 61 | 115 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 69% | 77% |
| Avg entry price | 0.083 | 0.189 | 0.260 | 0.137 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.298 | 0.197 | 0.117 | 0.091 |
| Maker share (notional) | 96% | 95% | 92% | 73% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.2 | 31.0 | 46.0 | 965.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.2 | 33.4 | 49.3 | 1164.2 |
| Max concurrent | 3 | 40 | 48 | 73 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.62 | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| Add-to-winner share | 36% | 35% | 32% | 66% |
| Average-down share | 56% | 62% | 66% | 33% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.15 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 0% | 84% | 71% | 57% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0035 | 0.2227 | 0.0661 | 0.0409 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0035 | 0.1180 | 0.1091 | 0.0970 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.798 | 0.541 | 0.681 | 0.794 |
| Exit quality ($) | $3.24k | $-3.12k | $6.67k | $4.68k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 183.7% | -8.9% | -6.6% | -3.6% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0123 | -0.0123 | -0.0123 | -0.0123 |
| Alpha ($) | $7.23k | $7.23k | $7.23k | $7.23k |
| Alpha ROI gap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0015 | -0.0015 | -0.0015 | -0.0015 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 5.05e-17; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $61.4k |
| $61.4k |
| Worst day | N/A | $-4 | $-3.5k | $-15.3k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $235 |
| $1.46k |
| $935 |
| <0.10 |
| 67% |
| 47% |
| 47% |
| 47% |
| 2% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | 50% | 50% | 15% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 0% | 57% | 60% | 67% | 8% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | 80% | 80% | 8% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 81% | 67% |
| 0% |
| 10% |
| 8% |
| Spread capture | -0.0100 | 0.0089 | -0.0017 | 0.0147 |
| Inventory turnover | 243.00 | 4540.00 | 8262.00 | 24396.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.34 | 2.88 | 1.24 | 1.52 |
| Avg ticket | $55 | $168 | $340 | $224 |
| Median ticket | $5 | $6 | $9 | $4 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 591.50 | -107.99 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.63 |
| 0.78 |
| 1.38 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $41.5k | 51% | 51 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $11k | 100% | 2 |
| Bitcoin | $9.34k | 90% | 10 |
| Soccer | $844 | 100% | 1 |
| NBA | $555 | 100% | 1 |
| Ethereum | $302 | 100% | 2 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x37a6de1b… | $-37.4k | $70k | -53.4% |
| 0x7b52405a… | $27.5k | $1.01M | 2.7% |
| 0x0c4cd205… | $24.2k | $25k | 96.7% |
| 0x0891e479… | $19.4k | $65.6k | 29.6% |
| 0x375409bc… | $-17k | $201k | -8.5% |
| 0x84edef36… | $-16.7k | $1.07M | -1.6% |
| 0x4f3421fb… | $16.3k | $354k | 4.6% |
| 0xccc07a83… | $12.3k | $45.6k | 27.1% |
| 0x2bf419aa… | $11k | $9k | 122.2% |
| 0x94e50623… | $10.1k | $10.9k | 92.3% |
| 0xc6d651e1… | $4.01k | $53k | 7.6% |
| 0x8860c803… | $3.67k | $3.53k | 104.0% |
| 0xad9e90bf… | $3.6k | $4.4k | 81.8% |
| 0xd61673fd… | $3.54k | $57.5k | 6.2% |
| 0xe8c4faf4… | $3.1k | $77.9k | 4.0% |
| 17681 |
| 17681 |
| 17681 |
| 17681 |