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0xfe78…0319 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xfe78…0319
0xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319
This wallet is categorized as a Market Maker because it mostly provides liquidity rather than taking directional bets.
Maker share of notional is 90% and two-sided activity is 65%, which is structurally different from taker-heavy styles.
Inventory turns over quickly (turnover 50792.0), consistent with quoting both sides and recycling risk.
Little of its inventory is held to resolution (9%), so PnL comes from the spread and flow rather than forecast outcomes.
Updated 2026-07-19 16:00:08 UTC
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $169k | $194k | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $692k | ∞ | ∞ | ∞ |
| Win rate | 67% | 64% | 59% | 59% |
| ROI | 14% | 16% | 9% | 9% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.148 | 0.176 | 0.048 |
| Markets | 339 | 1392 | 1392 | 1392 |
| Best day | $-40.5k | $335k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 2.54 | 2.92 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.7k | $1.22k | $675 | $675 |
| Median trade PnL | $11 | $9 | $7 | $7 |
| Payoff ratio | 1.27 | 1.67 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Largest win | $185k | $230k | $417k | $417k |
| Largest loss | $-103k | $-103k | $-302k | $-302k |
| Expectancy | $1.7k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $172k | $221k | $249k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.035 | 0.210 | 0.201 | 0.035 |
| Calmar | 0.357 | 0.357 | 0.357 | 0.357 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 37% | 14% | 4% | 4% |
| Concentration top-10 | 49% | 20% | 7% | 7% |
| Max win streak | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Max loss streak | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 15487 | 50792 | 50792 | 50792 |
| Unique markets | 339 | 1392 | 1392 | 1392 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 125% | 125% | 125% |
| Avg entry price | 0.418 | 0.427 | 0.427 | 0.427 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.045 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| Maker share (notional) | 93% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Two-sided share | 73% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Max concurrent | 63 | 176 | 176 | 176 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Add-to-winner share | 49% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Average-down share | 45% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.00 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 13% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0872 | 0.1004 | 0.1417 | 0.1417 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1563 | 0.1367 | 0.1609 | 0.1609 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.139 | 0.174 | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-1.31k | $-1.27k | $-675 | $-675 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 62.3% | 78.5% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0856 | 0.0856 | 0.0856 | 0.0856 |
| Alpha ($) | $46k | $46k | $46k | $46k |
| Alpha ROI gap | 493.3% | 493.3% | 493.3% | 493.3% |
| Contrarian score | -0.166 | -0.166 | -0.166 | -0.166 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0235 | -0.0235 | -0.0235 | -0.0235 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Post-fill observations |
| Worst day | $-40.5k | $-161k | $-342k | $-1.74M |
| Spread capture | 0.0301 | 0.0426 | 0.0426 | 0.0426 |
| Inventory turnover | 15487.00 | 50792.00 | 50792.00 | 50792.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.31 | 0.79 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Avg ticket | $407 | $315 | $315 | $315 |
| Median ticket | $24 | $20 | $20 | $20 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $5.27M | 61% | 4862 |
| Esports | $1.01M | 54% | 1469 |
| Tennis | $477k | 58% | 3634 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xcd84f901… | $418k | $482k | 86.7% |
| 0x6d621f9a… | $328k | $407k | 80.5% |
| 0xecba7b1d… | $282k | $321k | 87.8% |
| 0x95f726bb… | $234k | $153k | 153.3% |
| 0x28590a13… | $220k | $275k | 80.0% |
| 0x5f84b35f… | $210k | $399k | 52.6% |
| 0xdae2fd2a… | $172k | $114k | 150.9% |
| 0x776956c5… | $171k | $266k | 64.3% |
| 0x3a1cce40… | $168k | $126k | 133.3% |
| 0x0f5e01cf… | $150k | $280k | 53.6% |
| 0x475b9074… | $-128k | $178k | -72.0% |
| 0x97d575b7… | $126k | $111k | 113.6% |
| 0x4b84a8e0… | $125k | $398k | 31.3% |
| 0x8054fef9… | $-122k | $418k | -29.2% |
| 0x4a575a7c… | $121k | $96.6k | 125.1% |