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0xfe203e3bd8a4ce3e2689bd7281e41e5ae99667de
Tilted GamblerGrade Darchetypes-v1
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 1.16 and disposition ratio 23.80, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 70.5), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:46:02 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$37.9k
Open PnL
$19.2k
Max drawdown
$20.5k
Underwater days
164
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $38.7k | $51.2k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $22.1k | $17.6k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 100% | 54% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | 58% | 33% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.379 | 0.069 |
| Markets | 0 | 4 | 13 | 40 |
| Best day | N/A | $479 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | ∞ | 3.82 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $2.76k | $628 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $1.28k | $8 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.31 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $14k | $14k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-2.84k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | $6.84k | $1.74k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 2.006 | 0.125 |
| Calmar | 2.476 | 2.476 | 2.476 | 2.476 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 63% | 47% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 94% | 76% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 92% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 6 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 5 | 15 | 185 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 4 | 13 | 40 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | 50% | 39% | 7% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.230 | 0.339 | 0.134 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | 0.536 | 0.188 | 0.083 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 61.0 | 35.1 | 1232.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 61.0 | 29.9 | 54.2 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 4 | 12 | 31 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 1091.62 | 23.80 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 79% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 21% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 100% | 100% | 70% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.2235 | 0.1268 | 0.1525 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.2055 | 0.0906 | 0.1154 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.688 | 0.826 | 0.262 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-0 | $-0 | $-77 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | -0.0% | 0.0% | -10.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.1034 | -0.1034 | -0.1034 | -0.1034 |
| Alpha ($) | $-133 | $-133 | $-133 | $-133 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -45.1% | -45.1% | -45.1% | -45.1% |
| Contrarian score | -0.240 | -0.240 | -0.240 | -0.240 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0261 | -0.0261 | -0.0261 | -0.0261 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 63.1%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 59.5%
- Conviction Holder: 47.3%
- News Sniper: 43.9%
- Contrarian Fader: 39.6%