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0xfc2f…10c7 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xfc2f…10c7
0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7
Secondary: Conviction Holder
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 6000 with median hold 29.9 hours, maker share only 38%.
Capital velocity 0.4 and held-to-resolution 89% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Conviction Holder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:45:47 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $26.3k | $50.9k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $997 | $42.6k | $87.7k | $821k |
| Win rate | 100% | 75% | 68% | 69% |
| ROI | 10% | 34% | 9% | 10% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.355 | 0.276 | 0.104 |
| Markets | 14 | 32 | 102 | 190 |
| Best day | $-3.88k | $24.5k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 9.79 | 3.86 | 4.33 |
| Mean trade PnL | $997 | $3.55k | $1.01k | $1.59k |
| Median trade PnL | $997 | $904 | $103 | $151 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 3.26 | 1.83 | 1.98 |
| Largest win | $997 | $25.6k | $25.6k | $128k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-2.87k | $-6.14k | $-34k |
| Expectancy | $997 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $9.96k | $6.54k | $11.8k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 1.195 | 0.357 | 0.117 |
| Calmar | 2.055 | 2.055 | 2.055 | 2.055 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 62.0 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 62.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 100% | 49% | 21% | 10% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 94% | 54% | 26% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 36% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 51 | 367 | 1977 | 6000 |
| Unique markets | 14 | 32 | 102 | 190 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 100% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.226 | 0.442 | 0.408 | 0.366 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.184 | 0.106 | 0.143 | 0.099 |
| Maker share (notional) | 18% | 34% | 35% | 38% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.5 | 32.8 | 86.1 | 62.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.0 | 10.0 | 39.0 | 29.9 |
| Max concurrent | 10 | 25 | 90 | 175 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0.89 | 1.50 |
| Add-to-winner share | 100% | 67% | 66% | 68% |
| Average-down share | 0% | 30% | 33% | 31% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 88% | 86% | 89% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.2881 | 0.0909 | 0.1098 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.1197 | 0.1505 | 0.1556 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.383 | 0.568 | 0.533 | 0.640 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-10.4k | $-2.45k | $-3.93k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 381.7% | 60.4% | -22.2% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0245 | -0.0245 | -0.0245 | -0.0245 |
| Alpha ($) | $-9.49k | $-9.49k | $-9.49k | $-9.49k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -205.4% | -205.4% | -205.4% | -205.4% |
| Contrarian score | -0.049 | -0.049 | -0.049 | -0.049 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0138 | 0.0138 | 0.0138 | 0.0138 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 48.4%
- Conviction Holder: 40.8%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 39.4%
- Tilted Gambler: 35.0%
- Contrarian Fader: 30.1%
| Worst day | $-3.88k | $-3.88k | $-14.4k | $-47.6k |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 100% | 79% | 83% | 6% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 100% | 71% | 78% | 11% |
| Spread capture | N/A | 0.0045 | 0.0232 | -0.0006 |
| Inventory turnover | 51.00 | 367.00 | 1977.00 | 6000.00 |
| Capital velocity | 3.27 | 1.51 | 1.21 | 0.35 |
| Avg ticket | $642 | $513 | $615 | $467 |
| Median ticket | $66 | $56 | $34 | $19 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -133.60 | -636.40 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Iran | $249k | 64% | 111 |
| Geopolitics | $196k | 71% | 41 |
| Politics | $172k | 71% | 120 |
| Parent For Derivative | $41.8k | 76% | 46 |
| Oil | $28.1k | 85% | 20 |
| Israel | $26.6k | 55% | 20 |
| Trump | $24.5k | 57% | 28 |
| Finance | $19.6k | 69% | 32 |
| Iran Ceasefire | $19.5k | 75% | 4 |
| Iran Regime | $12.9k | 71% | 7 |
| Middle East | $10.6k | 71% | 21 |
| transit | $10.4k | 50% | 2 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xd4bbf7f6… | $128k | $653k | 19.7% |
| 0xd86a8160… | $83.3k | $989k | 8.4% |
| 0x4c5701bc… | $38.2k | $43.4k | 87.9% |
| 0xab1209b7… | $36k | $37.5k | 95.8% |
| 0x5c2e6aef… | $24.7k | $96.6k | 25.5% |
| 0x3488f31e… | $-20.9k | $278k | -7.5% |
| 0x2de8d7b9… | $20.2k | $1.38k | 1459.5% |
| 0x28b418b2… | $19.9k | $2.81k | 708.7% |
| 0x136f4e24… | $19.4k | $54.6k | 35.6% |
| 0xbe6525eb… | $18.9k | $77.1k | 24.5% |
| 0x8f48b7a8… | $18.6k | $7.87k | 236.5% |
| 0x92485347… | $17.1k | $3.89k | 440.1% |
| 0x27182c8b… | $16.7k | $29.3k | 56.9% |
| 0x46c09232… | $16.6k | $4.85k | 341.5% |
| 0x6114a8a3… | $16.1k | $121k | 13.3% |