Loading trader…
0xfc25…1f7f
0xfc25f141ed27bb1787338d2c4e7f51e3a15e1f7f
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
84% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (95%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.06).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 16:00:31 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$509k
Open PnL
$1.47k
Max drawdown
$184k
Underwater days
44
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $509k |
| Realized PnL | $-79.8k | $-166k | $-66.4k | $255k |
| Win rate | 88% | 93% | 94% | 95% |
| ROI | -4% | -2% | -0% | 0% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.510 | -0.044 | 0.096 |
| Markets | 26 | 151 | 175 | 175 |
| Best day | $1.04k | $7.05k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-3.19k | $-1.08k | $-76 | $26 |
| Median trade PnL | $11 | $19 | $18 | $5 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Largest win | $300k | $300k | $420k | $420k |
| Largest loss | $-150k | $-150k | $-230k | $-250k |
| Expectancy | $-3.19k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $47k | $30.7k | $8.9k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.183 | -0.025 | 0.048 |
| Calmar | 2.760 | 2.760 | 2.760 | 2.760 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 44% | 31% | 6% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 81% | 25% | 9% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 97% | 43% | 16% |
| Max win streak | 18 | 43 | 213 | 213 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 4 | 4 | 50 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 1379 | 6126 | 7466 | 7466 |
| Unique markets | 26 | 151 | 175 | 175 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 100% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.522 | 0.864 | 0.471 | 0.471 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.128 | 0.024 | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| Maker share (notional) | 94% | 86% | 87% | 87% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Max concurrent | 7 | 43 | 51 | 51 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Add-to-winner share | 30% | 61% | 37% | 37% |
| Average-down share | 69% | 15% | 36% | 36% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.02 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 26% | 28% | 29% | 29% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1073 | 0.0420 | 0.0318 | 0.0343 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0651 | 0.0323 | 0.0221 | 0.0205 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.994 | 0.947 | 0.944 | 0.944 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-7.14k | $-1.16k | $-517 | $5 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -1.6% | 0.5% | 58.3% | 21.8% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0067 | 0.0067 | 0.0067 | 0.0067 |
| Alpha ($) | $-444 | $-444 | $-444 | $-444 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -19.2% | -19.2% | -19.2% | -19.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.621 | -0.621 | -0.621 | -0.621 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0070 | -0.0070 | -0.0070 | -0.0070 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 99.8%
- Scalper: 58.6%
- Contrarian Fader: 56.2%
- News Sniper: 55.0%
- Tilted Gambler: 34.7%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 7.25e-92; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0x0e5ee49e19… entry 0.001
- 0xf0bcb77b4e… entry 0.009
- 0x851aa674ae… entry 0.239
- 0x181356c28e… entry 0.020
- 0xc39bd729bc… entry 0.005
- 0xb18c148f34… entry 0.010
- 0x4c7aee7671… entry 0.170
- 0x0fb23b9a75… entry 0.255
- 0xa1f3c8115c… entry 0.140
- 0xab24df1e92… entry 0.280
- 0x434719e5e8… entry 0.220
- 0x7d9a8b8c29… entry 0.270
- 0xfa45085acf… entry 0.270
- 0x832f4a1c84… entry 0.271
- 0x83616fcde6… entry 0.170
- 0x091777d8bd… entry 0.250
- 0x006a87540d… entry 0.220
- 0x17eecbabb6… entry 0.001
- 0xa307aded13… entry 0.214
- 0xbd6aec3013… entry 0.080
- 0xa9a9acb457… entry 0.260