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0xf78024882a7b298247485ed485732b1e35c6be2c
This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.
Weekly activity shows 26 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.88 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).
Holds stay short (median 1.1 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:42:19 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $20.2k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $23k | $20.1k | $18.7k | $27.7k |
| Win rate | 67% | 50% | 52% | 57% |
| ROI | 80% | 52% | 28% | 24% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.318 | 0.193 | 0.064 |
| Markets | 5 | 10 | 76 | 148 |
| Best day | $-2 | $23.1k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 164.10 | 5.80 | 2.31 | 2.77 |
| Mean trade PnL | $7.67k | $2.51k | $231 | $180 |
| Median trade PnL | $27 | $-57 | $0 | $1 |
| Payoff ratio | 82.05 | 5.80 | 2.14 | 2.08 |
| Largest win | $23.1k | $23.1k | $23.1k | $23.1k |
| Largest loss | $-141 | $-3.44k | $-3.5k | $-3.5k |
| Expectancy | $7.67k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $9.07k | $4.31k | $1.5k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.717 | 0.543 | 0.166 |
| Calmar | 3.952 | 3.952 | 3.952 | 3.952 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 99% | 81% | 49% | 39% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 99% | 69% | 65% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 80% | 75% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 2 | 21 | 26 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 179 | 205 | 442 | 707 |
| Unique markets | 5 | 10 | 76 | 148 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 90% | 19% |
| Avg entry price | 0.088 | 0.110 | 0.113 | 0.142 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.919 | 0.702 | 0.354 | 0.165 |
| Maker share (notional) | 8% | 11% | 12% | 10% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.1 | 4.1 | 13.4 | 36.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Max concurrent | 4 | 7 | 46 | 92 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.07 |
| Add-to-winner share | 89% | 80% | 67% | 58% |
| Average-down share | 10% | 13% | 26% | 41% |
| Tilt ratio | 2.92 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 71% | 60% | 57% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0073 | 0.0477 | 0.1139 | 0.1057 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0649 | 0.2131 | 0.1992 | 0.2055 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.866 | 0.844 | 0.926 | 0.875 |
| Exit quality ($) | $23.9k | $6.9k | $689 | $380 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 96.9% | 30.4% | 5.2% | -5.4% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.1043 | 0.1043 | 0.1043 | 0.1043 |
| Alpha ($) | $-22 | $-22 | $-22 | $-22 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -201.0% | -201.0% | -201.0% | -201.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.042 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0706 | -0.0706 | -0.0706 | -0.0706 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 3.33e-4; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $23.1k |
| $23.1k |
| Worst day | $-2 | $-4.03k | $-4.03k | $-4.2k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $2.51k |
| $231 |
| $180 |
| <0.10 |
| 100% |
| 100% |
| 31% |
| 26% |
| 24% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | 0% | 33% | 44% | 8% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 0% | 33% | 70% | 77% | 14% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 50% | 67% | 70% | 49% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 75% | 5% |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | 179.00 | 205.00 | 442.00 | 707.00 |
| Capital velocity | 2.62 | 2.26 | 1.84 | 1.76 |
| Avg ticket | $423 | $425 | $279 | $291 |
| Median ticket | $9 | $9 | $10 | $9 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 19.10 | 2.01 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| 1.02 |
| 1.78 |
| 2.21 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $30.6k | 59% | 64 |
| South Korea Elections | $-3.5k | 0% | 1 |
| Politics | $3.01k | 57% | 7 |
| GOOGL | $-1.32k | 0% | 1 |
| Main Election | $-1.1k | 0% | 1 |
| Up or Down | $432 | 63% | 65 |
| Geopolitics | $355 | 67% | 3 |
| Iran | $-300 | 0% | 1 |
| Trump | $-220 | 0% | 1 |
| Culture | $-141 | 0% | 1 |
| California Midterm | $-109 | 0% | 1 |
| Rewards 20, 4.5, 50 | $-78 | 0% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xaeec5397… | $23.1k | $24.7k | 93.7% |
| 0x870bb248… | $4.92k | $8.38k | 58.7% |
| 0x1b1a75d6… | $-3.5k | $3.5k | -100.0% |
| 0xecba7b1d… | $-3.44k | $4.66k | -73.8% |
| 0x1480b819… | $3.14k | $27.1k | 11.6% |
| 0xd9553006… | $-1.32k | $1.32k | -99.9% |
| 0x65614be3… | $-1.3k | $1.3k | -100.0% |
| 0x649bd3dc… | $1.12k | $1.73k | 64.8% |
| 0x9ed0ecc8… | $-1.1k | $1.6k | -68.5% |
| 0x65f57600… | $1.09k | $800 | 136.6% |
| 0xf5bc8db2… | $1.06k | $1.2k | 88.7% |
| 0x971eb98d… | $711 | $650 | 109.3% |
| 0x9814196a… | $679 | $920 | 73.9% |
| 0x7b52405a… | $-650 | $308 | -211.2% |
| 0x32046bdc… | $-603 | $1.2k | -50.4% |
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