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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0xf519…906b · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0xf519…906b 0X
0xf519…906b 0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 28726 with median hold 2.0 hours, maker share only 90%.
Capital velocity 0.3 and held-to-resolution 13% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:44:22 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $31.1k $110k N/A Realized PnL $82.9k $248k $862k $964k Win rate 100% 85% 96% 68% ROI 14% 16% 11% 4% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.160 0.236 0.067 Markets 23 86 869 869 Best day $695 $32.4k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor N/A 8.66 11.14 1.30 Mean trade PnL $6.91k $3.76k $823 $193 Median trade PnL $1.82k $1.1k $348 $101 Payoff ratio N/A 1.58 0.46 0.62 Largest win $50.4k $61.4k $61.4k $86.5k Largest loss N/A $-15.4k $-15.4k $-98.4k Expectancy $6.91k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $27.8k $15.7k $9.54k Sortino (daily) N/A N/A 0.209 0.065 Calmar 3.405 3.405 3.405 3.405 Drawdown duration (days) 129.0 129.0 129.0 129.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 61% 36% 11% 2% Concentration top-5 93% 64% 28% 6% Concentration top-10 100% 72% 35% 8% Max win streak 11 23 119 119 Max loss streak N/A 2 2 96
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 912 3637 28726 28726 Unique markets 23 86 869 869 Active days ratio 200% 117% 100% 100% Avg entry price 0.644 0.519 0.454 0.454 Portfolio HHI 0.077 0.029 0.004 0.004 Maker share (notional) 66% 82% 90% 90% Two-sided share 0%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 1.3 2.2 21.9 21.9 Holding time median (h) 1.4 0.9 2.0 2.0 Max concurrent 9 31 114 114 Disposition ratio N/A 3.13 0.79 0.79 Add-to-winner share 85% 55% 35% 35% Average-down share 15% 45% 65% 65% Tilt ratio N/A
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 75% 38% 13% 13% Brier (weighted) 0.0454 0.0553 0.0278 0.1002 Brier (unweighted) 0.1016 0.0795 0.0238 0.1265 Entry timing mean 0.968 0.843 0.907 0.907 Exit quality ($) $-788 $2.61k $584 $178 Exit quality ROI gap -18.8% -1.0% -0.5% 0.6%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0786 -0.0786 -0.0786 -0.0786 Alpha ($) $-19 $-19 $-19 $-19 Alpha ROI gap -8.3% -8.3% -8.3% -8.3% Contrarian score 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.077 Post-fill drift 0.0038 0.0038 0.0038 0.0038 Post-fill candles (mean) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 60.0% News Sniper: 51.6% Favorite Grinder: 40.3% Contrarian Fader: 39.9% Tilted Gambler: 38.9% Worst day $695 $-51.7k $-51.7k $-77.9k
0.40–0.60 100% 92% 73% 54% 12%
0.60–0.90 100% 87% 96% 78% 42%
Spread capture 0.0457 0.0062 0.0009 0.0009
Inventory turnover 912.00 3637.00 28726.00 28726.00
Capital velocity 0.40 0.73 0.88 0.29
Avg ticket $267 $320 $248 $248
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -2756.40 -2756.40
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $632k 71% 3460 Tennis $184k 67% 580 Eurovision $62.3k 36% 56 NYMEX Crude Oil Futures $-22k 21% 14 Awards $18.6k 25% 32 Soccer $15.8k 74% 27 Parent For Derivative $13.7k 61% 23 Finance $10.1k 75% 8 financials $10.1k 67% 3 Elon Musk $8.54k 100% 1 Darts $7.53k 58% 12 Iran $-5.86k 18% 11
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x9b6fef24… $111k $482k 23.1% 0x37aaf2e2… $-94.9k $106k -89.7% 0xff081c52… $86.7k $21.9k 396.5% 0x30d55d81… $62.7k $176k 35.6% 0x0c4cd205… $56.5k $590k 9.6% 0x4f3421fb… $46.9k $271k 17.3% 0xa5befe0a… $32.3k $10.2k 315.6% 0xc1fae712… $-27.9k $30k -93.0% 0x3f1a6eb6… $26.8k $3.15k 852.4% 0x14a3dfeb… $25k $50.9k 49.1% 0x91c512d9… $-18.8k $47.9k -39.3% 0xc3acdcbd… $18.4k $9.9k 186.0% 0xba280a1d… $-18k $18k -100.0% 0xf6de9c95… $-16.2k $18.3k -88.8% 0xe068813c… $-16k $16k -99.8%
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