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0xf164…8fa4
0xf1649daae29c44bdb406a4dbb7f1748eac398fa4
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
67% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (63%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.75).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:33:11 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$442k
Open PnL
$-9
Max drawdown
$152k
Underwater days
32
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $442k |
| Realized PnL | $-153k | $-143k | $-45.7k | $440k |
| Win rate | 50% | 89% | 83% | 63% |
| ROI | -60% | -19% | -1% | 3% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.350 | -0.071 | 0.122 |
| Markets | 1 | 9 | 122 | 1045 |
| Best day | $569 | $6.13k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-76.4k | $-15.8k | $-371 | $408 |
| Median trade PnL | $-76.4k | $1k | $463 | $269 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.75 |
| Largest win | $1k | $5.14k | $30.1k | $47.2k |
| Largest loss | $-154k | $-154k | $-154k | $-154k |
| Expectancy | $-76.4k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $58.1k | $30.2k | $18.8k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.134 | -0.034 | 0.101 |
| Calmar | 2.919 | 2.919 | 2.919 | 2.919 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 99% | 93% | 33% | 4% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 99% | 49% | 8% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 12% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 8 | 17 | 19 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 3 | 50 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 13 | 173 | 4288 | 13404 |
| Unique markets | 1 | 9 | 122 | 1045 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 100% | 93% | 96% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.964 | 0.858 | 0.638 |
| Portfolio HHI | 1.000 | 0.145 | 0.021 | 0.007 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 100% | 97% | 80% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 2 | 66 | 695 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 3.25 | 1.06 | 0.37 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 64% | 33% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 0% | 34% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 0% | 22% | 54% | 66% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.5447 | 0.1838 | 0.0528 | 0.0846 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.4476 | 0.1001 | 0.0504 | 0.1768 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.591 | 0.822 |
| Exit quality ($) | $0 | $-26 | $153 | $35 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 0.1% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0073 | -0.0073 | -0.0073 | -0.0073 |
| Alpha ($) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Contrarian score | 0.356 | 0.356 | 0.356 | 0.356 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0094 | 0.0094 | 0.0094 | 0.0094 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Post-fill observations | 47 |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 63.8%
- News Sniper: 52.4%
- Scalper: 51.9%
- Tilted Gambler: 43.3%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 25.3%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 3.27e-15; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xa5501b4dc0… entry 0.090 timing 0.99
- 0xa4ea78fa7f… entry 0.160 timing 0.97
- 0x5e9b626a64… entry 0.250 timing 0.98
- 0x65e96fd4ff… entry 0.140 timing 0.78
- 0x79c98c9946… entry 0.033 timing 0.52
- 0xa0bc014d85… entry 0.220 timing 0.58
- 0x54ee37d70e… entry 0.180 timing 0.08
- 0x6d8a2822a6… entry 0.280 timing 1.00
- 0x319911213c… entry 0.280 timing 1.00
- 0xa9780723a1… entry 0.300 timing 0.48
- 0x9d15c3156f… entry 0.120 timing 1.00
- 0x7bfc8ea87f… entry 0.300 timing 0.98
- 0x2360f94f33… entry 0.180 timing 1.00
- 0xc679b550c1… entry 0.230 timing 1.00
- 0x76d793c2ad… entry 0.290 timing 0.98