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0xeea3…a6a2 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xeea3…a6a2
0xeea3f08e8a36081233e4c4b4142fd61a7b56a6a2
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.11 of market life) and 75% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (6000.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:23:53 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.37k | $28.6k | $64.6k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $6.32k | $45.2k | $105k | $162k |
| Win rate | 49% | 58% | 57% | 57% |
| ROI | 6% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.989 | 0.379 | 0.469 |
| Markets | 60 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Best day | $38 | $7.18k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Mean trade PnL | $61 | $46 | $34 | $36 |
| Median trade PnL | $-1 | $7 | $7 | $9 |
| Payoff ratio | 1.61 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.01 |
| Largest win | $1.83k | $1.83k | $2.48k | $2.48k |
| Largest loss | $-1.77k | $-2.04k | $-7.39k | $-7.39k |
| Expectancy | $61 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.95k | $6.09k | $4.93k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.177 | 0.198 |
| Calmar | 4.516 | 4.516 | 4.516 | 4.516 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 30% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Concentration top-10 | 51% | 9% | 5% | 4% |
| Max win streak | 4 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Max loss streak | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 2240 | 6000 | 6000 | 6000 |
| Unique markets | 60 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 133% | 133% | 133% |
| Avg entry price | 0.545 | 0.543 | 0.543 | 0.543 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.029 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| Maker share (notional) | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Max concurrent | 60 | 162 | 162 | 162 |
| Disposition ratio | 1.13 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Add-to-winner share | 65% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| Average-down share | 34% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.79 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 80% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0604 | 0.0824 | 0.0891 | 0.0963 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0596 | 0.0879 | 0.0897 | 0.0915 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.088 | 0.108 | 0.108 | 0.108 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-39 | $27 | $19 | $17 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 8.2% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0414 | 0.0414 | 0.0414 | 0.0414 |
| Alpha ($) | $103 | $103 | $103 | $103 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 33.6% | 33.6% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Contrarian score | -0.035 | -0.035 | -0.035 | -0.035 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0349 | 0.0349 | 0.0349 | 0.0349 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 70.2%
- Scalper: 70.0%
- Tilted Gambler: 41.5%
- Conviction Holder: 32.6%
- Contrarian Fader: 29.9%
| Worst day | $38 | $-1.41k | $-26.1k | $-26.1k |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | 2240.00 | 6000.00 | 6000.00 | 6000.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.49 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| Median ticket | $19 | $17 | $17 | $17 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x7804dd5e… | $-10.2k | $90.1k | -11.4% |
| 0x7757f373… | $-9.22k | $72.7k | -12.7% |
| 0xa41dd49f… | $-3.15k | $49.4k | -6.4% |
| 0xa82f6b6a… | $-3.01k | $76.9k | -3.9% |
| 0x644a285b… | $2.83k | $1.39k | 204.4% |
| 0x16326d7e… | $-2.81k | $7.99k | -35.1% |
| 0x6c5ba431… | $2.48k | $1.79k | 138.4% |
| 0xeaa0adf1… | $2.33k | $1.2k | 193.6% |
| 0x28ffbd8b… | $2.19k | $2.04k | 107.2% |
| 0x2fcca41d… | $2.1k | $1.09k | 193.4% |
| 0x8faca6c0… | $2.01k | $648 | 310.7% |
| 0x0c4334e8… | $2k | $3.51k | 56.8% |
| 0xc3f8a1ee… | $1.98k | $1.4k | 141.6% |
| 0x52463b52… | $-1.96k | $4.71k | -41.6% |
| 0x10614177… | $-1.93k | $4.04k | -47.8% |