0xecb1…5da3

0xecb14ac6e9ca447ce2f2912e6217b43d7b655da3

Favorite GrinderGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

61% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (56%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.95).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 15:30:11 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$308k

Open PnL

$-327k

Max drawdown

$342k

Underwater days

251

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$2.44k	N/A	N/A	N/A
Realized PnL	$6.54k	$83.8k	$100k	$715k
Win rate	100%	90%	89%	56%
ROI	39%	57%	28%	2%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.167	0.042	0.031
Markets	4	51	77	1545
Best day	$226	$13.1k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	6.93	7.27	1.21
Mean trade PnL	$6.54k	$8.38k	$3.57k	$259
Median trade PnL	$6.54k	$1.51k	$675	$2
Payoff ratio	N/A	0.77	0.87	0.95
Largest win	$6.54k	$66.5k	$66.5k	$166k
Largest loss	N/A	$-14.1k	$-14.1k	$-133k
Expectancy	$6.54k

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$8.16k	$17.3k	$17k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.108	0.042	0.027
Calmar	0.907	0.907	0.907	0.907
Drawdown duration (days)	250.5	250.5	250.5	250.5

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	100%	59%	50%	3%
Concentration top-5	100%	97%	82%	9%
Concentration top-10	100%	100%	94%	15%
Max win streak	1	7	14	32
Max loss streak	N/A	1	1	80

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	154	700	999	30703
Unique markets	4	51	77	1545
Active days ratio	200%	117%	73%	89%
Avg entry price	0.391	0.615	0.712	0.615
Portfolio HHI	0.431	0.274	0.114	0.062
Maker share (notional)	45%	86%	57%	72%
Two-sided share	25%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	0.0	2.1	21.8	155.8
Holding time median (h)	0.0	0.6	2.7	10.9
Max concurrent	3	45	61	1063
Disposition ratio	N/A	0.18	0.01	0.98
Add-to-winner share	100%	91%	85%	66%
Average-down share	0%	7%	15%	30%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	44%	55%	64%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	0.0670	0.0309	0.0638
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	0.0936	0.1151	0.1173
Entry timing mean	0.533	0.588	0.520	0.494
Exit quality ($)	N/A	$-230	$-96	$-67
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	-13.3%	-6.0%	236.9%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0049	-0.0049	-0.0049	-0.0049
Alpha ($)	$13.1k	$13.1k	$13.1k	$13.1k
Alpha ROI gap	-19.3%	-19.3%	-19.3%	-19.3%
Contrarian score	-0.012	-0.012	-0.012	-0.012
Post-fill drift	0.0137	0.0137	0.0137	0.0137
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.9	5.9	5.9	5.9
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 52.6%
Scalper: 43.6%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 39.7%
Tilted Gambler: 37.0%
Conviction Holder: 29.7%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.71e-232; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xfbe85201ab… entry 0.260 timing 0.84
0xf377dac16f… entry 0.142
0xfee704075f… entry 0.190 timing 0.91
0x26d823a534… entry 0.242 timing 0.72
0x20530a7d6f… entry 0.118 timing 0.27
0xd970b179b0… entry 0.010
0xe2d0a0c095… entry 0.041
0x26f93958dd… entry 0.295 timing 0.57
0x58f4542341… entry 0.230 timing 0.69
0x3860f6b090… entry 0.044 timing 0.65
0x046fdafbb7… entry 0.253 timing 0.22
0xc099825fab… entry 0.210 timing 0.53
0x63d173b058… entry 0.125 timing 0.87
0x289085f1f7… entry 0.100
0x89f22f51b9… entry 0.250 timing 0.18
0x3794691b63… entry 0.185 timing 0.46
0x76c179f258… entry 0.297
0xe47a293c5f… entry 0.087 timing 0.96
0xf6614b7f1d… entry 0.107

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0xecb1…5da3

0xecb14ac6e9ca447ce2f2912e6217b43d7b655da3

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

61% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (56%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.95).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$2.44k

N/A

Realized PnL

$6.54k

$83.8k

$100k

$715k

Win rate

100%

90%

89%

56%

ROI

39%

57%

28%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.167

0.042

0.031

Markets

1545

Best day

$226

$13.1k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

6.93

7.27

1.21

Mean trade PnL

$6.54k

$8.38k

$3.57k

$259

Median trade PnL

$6.54k

$1.51k

$675

Payoff ratio

N/A

0.77

0.87

0.95

Largest win

$6.54k

$66.5k

$166k

Largest loss

N/A

$-14.1k

$-133k

Expectancy

$6.54k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$8.16k

$17.3k

$17k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.108

0.042

0.027

Calmar

0.907

Drawdown duration (days)

250.5

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

100%

59%

50%

Concentration top-5

100%

97%

82%

Concentration top-10

100%

94%

15%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

154

700

999

30703

Unique markets

1545

Active days ratio

200%

117%

73%

89%

Avg entry price

0.391

0.615

0.712

0.615

Portfolio HHI

0.431

0.274

0.114

0.062

Maker share (notional)

45%

86%

57%

72%

Two-sided share

25%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

0.0

2.1

21.8

155.8

Holding time median (h)

0.0

0.6

2.7

10.9

Max concurrent

1063

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.18

0.01

0.98

Add-to-winner share

100%

91%

85%

66%

Average-down share

15%

30%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

44%

55%

64%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.0670

0.0309

0.0638

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.0936

0.1151

0.1173

Entry timing mean

0.533

0.588

0.520

0.494

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-230

$-96

$-67

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

-13.3%

-6.0%

236.9%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0049

Alpha ($)

$13.1k

Alpha ROI gap

-19.3%

Contrarian score

-0.012

Post-fill drift

0.0137

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.9

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 52.6%

Scalper: 43.6%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 39.7%

Tilted Gambler: 37.0%

Conviction Holder: 29.7%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.71e-232; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xfbe85201ab… entry 0.260 timing 0.84
0xf377dac16f… entry 0.142
0xfee704075f… entry 0.190 timing 0.91
0x26d823a534… entry 0.242 timing 0.72
0x20530a7d6f… entry 0.118 timing 0.27
0xd970b179b0… entry 0.010
0xe2d0a0c095… entry 0.041
0x26f93958dd… entry 0.295 timing 0.57
0x58f4542341… entry 0.230 timing 0.69
0x3860f6b090… entry 0.044 timing 0.65
0x046fdafbb7… entry 0.253 timing 0.22
0xc099825fab… entry 0.210 timing 0.53
0x63d173b058… entry 0.125 timing 0.87
0x289085f1f7… entry 0.100
0x89f22f51b9… entry 0.250 timing 0.18
0x3794691b63… entry 0.185 timing 0.46
0x76c179f258… entry 0.297
0xe47a293c5f… entry 0.087 timing 0.96
0xf6614b7f1d… entry 0.107

Politics	$144k	56%	189
Global Elections	$-115k	77%	48
NBA	$110k	20%	41
Culture	$91.3k	59%	122
Gov Shutdown	$-88.4k	40%	10
Kanye	$-86.2k	33%	6
Elections	$85.4k	55%	11
Celebrities	$81.2k	50%	4
Crypto	$78.6k	74%	35
South Korea	$-60.1k	60%	10
Tennis	$59.1k	87%	47
nyc	$47.4k	67%	3

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x4e0f2988…	$169k	$179k	94.1%
0x6220c416…	$139k	$384k	36.1%
0xaf51603d…	$-133k	$30.2k	-441.1%
0x077fc0c4…	$-115k	$27.7k	-413.9%
0xffdd7741…	$87.4k	$283k	30.9%
0x2eaa8bce…	$85.7k	$23.8k	360.0%
0x93ec7298…	$-85.1k	$123k	-69.0%
0x655e5ca1…	$81.2k	$4.01M	2.0%
0x4a68d828…	$74.2k	$255k	29.1%
0xa4e85379…	$66.5k	$59k	112.6%
0x5fc28bfc…	$-66.2k	$99.5k	-66.5%
0x26ed2c7b…	$-64.8k	$274k	-23.7%
0xa6385774…	$-60.4k	$76.6k	-78.8%
0x9f41a3e4…	$59.4k	$51.1k	116.3%
0xc517b6dc…	$59.3k	$15.8k	376.1%

0xecb1…5da3

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xecb1…5da3

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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Day of week (UTC)

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