0xe8c4…395d

0xe8c4d68aff65b38cac46987b9b65e01eb47d395d

ScalperGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.

Trade count is 8000 with median hold 3.2 hours, maker share only 56%.

Capital velocity 0.9 and held-to-resolution 43% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 15:04:25 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$136k

Open PnL

$-206k

Max drawdown

$18.8k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$4.8k	$32k	$63.6k	N/A
Realized PnL	$21.6k	$51k	$269k	$604k
Win rate	94%	94%	93%	94%
ROI	57%	55%	46%	51%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	1.006	0.339	0.348
Markets	35	144	1014	1663
Best day	$9.76k	$9.76k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	28.12	6.76	8.61	13.65
Mean trade PnL	$697	$536	$370	$411
Median trade PnL	$217	$201	$163	$187
Payoff ratio	1.94	0.46	0.64	0.89
Largest win	$4.68k	$5.02k	$7.66k	$10.6k
Largest loss	$-783	$-4.47k	$-9.73k	$-9.73k
Expectancy	$697

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$4.61k	$5.87k	$6.38k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	N/A	0.372	0.388
Calmar	7.076	7.076	7.076	7.076
Drawdown duration (days)	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	20%	7%	3%	2%
Concentration top-5	64%	34%	11%	7%
Concentration top-10	87%	60%	17%	12%
Max win streak	20	35	72	95
Max loss streak	1	2	2	2

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	111	589	4940	8000
Unique markets	35	144	1014	1663
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	100%
Avg entry price	0.560	0.678	0.575	0.578
Portfolio HHI	0.124	0.050	0.007	0.005
Maker share (notional)	74%	60%	55%	56%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	1.6	3.8	16.7	26.3
Holding time median (h)	0.1	1.2	3.1	3.2
Max concurrent	10	41	427	710
Disposition ratio	N/A	0.34	0.60	0.36
Add-to-winner share	N/A	50%	91%	100%
Average-down share	N/A	0%	0%	0%
Tilt ratio	0.06

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	35%	33%	42%	43%
Brier (weighted)	0.1566	0.1991	0.1386	0.1485
Brier (unweighted)	0.1755	0.1842	0.1765	0.1892
Entry timing mean	0.313	0.324	0.486	0.504
Exit quality ($)	$-106	$-36	$-8	$-14
Exit quality ROI gap	-0.8%	-0.3%	0.7%	0.4%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.1080	-0.1080	-0.1080	-0.1080
Alpha ($)	$3	$3	$3	$3
Alpha ROI gap	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Contrarian score	0.087	0.087	0.087	0.087
Post-fill drift	-0.0308	-0.0308	-0.0308	-0.0308
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
Post-fill observations	217

Archetype scores

Scalper: 58.4%
Favorite Grinder: 39.8%
News Sniper: 32.7%
Tilted Gambler: 31.5%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 28.0%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.31e-18; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xdbbbbd6ea7… entry 0.270 timing 0.30
0x0e4ff6a2bb… entry 0.190 timing 0.39
0x0a9007c130… entry 0.240 timing 0.16
0x5104b058e3… entry 0.289 timing 0.04
0xe38c513ff5… entry 0.250 timing 0.09
0xcb3c2e94ae… entry 0.210
0x7604b99a95… entry 0.210 timing 0.24
0x7b1aaead9e… entry 0.160 timing 0.19
0xfeea934c78… entry 0.180 timing 0.12
0xae57dbbdcd… entry 0.240
0xa99812794f… entry 0.250 timing 0.88
0xb20f96ba6c… entry 0.250 timing 0.98
0xc21016f198… entry 0.260 timing 0.23
0x4e7eca7acd… entry 0.230
0x88862ad18e… entry 0.240
0xe294f3ecb9… entry 0.240
0x254b40ff88… entry 0.273
0x8b430559ce… entry 0.260
0x44d3740ef1… entry 0.260

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0xe8c4…395d

0xe8c4d68aff65b38cac46987b9b65e01eb47d395d

This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.

Trade count is 8000 with median hold 3.2 hours, maker share only 56%.

Capital velocity 0.9 and held-to-resolution 43% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$4.8k

$32k

$63.6k

N/A

Realized PnL

$21.6k

$51k

$269k

$604k

Win rate

94%

93%

94%

ROI

57%

55%

46%

51%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

1.006

0.339

0.348

Markets

144

1014

1663

Best day

$9.76k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

28.12

6.76

8.61

13.65

Mean trade PnL

$697

$536

$370

$411

Median trade PnL

$217

$201

$163

$187

Payoff ratio

1.94

0.46

0.64

0.89

Largest win

$4.68k

$5.02k

$7.66k

$10.6k

Largest loss

$-783

$-4.47k

$-9.73k

Expectancy

$697

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$4.61k

$5.87k

$6.38k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.372

0.388

Calmar

7.076

Drawdown duration (days)

8.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

20%

Concentration top-5

64%

34%

11%

Concentration top-10

87%

60%

17%

12%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

111

589

4940

8000

Unique markets

144

1014

1663

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

100%

Avg entry price

0.560

0.678

0.575

0.578

Portfolio HHI

0.124

0.050

0.007

0.005

Maker share (notional)

74%

60%

55%

56%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

1.6

3.8

16.7

26.3

Holding time median (h)

0.1

1.2

3.1

3.2

Max concurrent

427

710

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.34

0.60

0.36

Add-to-winner share

N/A

50%

91%

100%

Average-down share

N/A

Tilt ratio

0.06

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

35%

33%

42%

43%

Brier (weighted)

0.1566

0.1991

0.1386

0.1485

Brier (unweighted)

0.1755

0.1842

0.1765

0.1892

Entry timing mean

0.313

0.324

0.486

0.504

Exit quality ($)

$-106

$-36

$-8

$-14

Exit quality ROI gap

-0.8%

-0.3%

0.7%

0.4%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.1080

Alpha ($)

Alpha ROI gap

0.1%

Contrarian score

0.087

Post-fill drift

-0.0308

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.5

Post-fill observations

217

Archetype scores

Scalper: 58.4%

Favorite Grinder: 39.8%

News Sniper: 32.7%

Tilted Gambler: 31.5%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 28.0%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.31e-18; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xdbbbbd6ea7… entry 0.270 timing 0.30
0x0e4ff6a2bb… entry 0.190 timing 0.39
0x0a9007c130… entry 0.240 timing 0.16
0x5104b058e3… entry 0.289 timing 0.04
0xe38c513ff5… entry 0.250 timing 0.09
0xcb3c2e94ae… entry 0.210
0x7604b99a95… entry 0.210 timing 0.24
0x7b1aaead9e… entry 0.160 timing 0.19
0xfeea934c78… entry 0.180 timing 0.12
0xae57dbbdcd… entry 0.240
0xa99812794f… entry 0.250 timing 0.88
0xb20f96ba6c… entry 0.250 timing 0.98
0xc21016f198… entry 0.260 timing 0.23
0x4e7eca7acd… entry 0.230
0x88862ad18e… entry 0.240
0xe294f3ecb9… entry 0.240
0x254b40ff88… entry 0.273
0x8b430559ce… entry 0.260
0x44d3740ef1… entry 0.260

Tennis	$292k	94%	430
Sports	$216k	95%	521
Esports	$32.8k	93%	125
Soccer	$14.5k	94%	63
Politics	$12.2k	95%	63
primary elections	$8.16k	100%	10
Oil	$4.93k	81%	16
AI	$3.82k	80%	10
Geopolitics	$2.86k	96%	26
2026 FIFA World Cup	$2.61k	91%	32
Group Futures	$2.32k	94%	16
Iran	$-1.9k	89%	45

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0xf54fd672…	$10.6k	$6.75k	156.4%
0xacbd0513…	$10.3k	$6.31k	163.4%
0xdd673016…	$10k	$5.63k	177.8%
0x1955b5d0…	$-9.73k	$9.73k	-100.0%
0xc843f9b2…	$9.59k	$6.63k	144.8%
0xc9a89abf…	$7.66k	$4.5k	170.3%
0x3fdb4075…	$7.56k	$5.48k	138.1%
0x5a6619f6…	$7.49k	$36.6k	20.5%
0x60d56296…	$7.3k	$5.2k	140.4%
0xee2eac71…	$6.75k	$2.25k	300.0%
0xf129155e…	$6.71k	$5.06k	132.5%
0x3f536149…	$6.21k	$5k	124.2%
0xd67da117…	$6.2k	$5.53k	112.2%
0x2e2c50a4…	$6.09k	$5.63k	108.3%
0x6e876aba…	$5.63k	$5.63k	100.0%

0xe8c4…395d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xe8c4…395d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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