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0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
75% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (74%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.97).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:04:26 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $786k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $2.31k | $773k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 100% | 74% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | 6% | 5% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.210 | 0.169 | 0.067 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 3 | 218 |
| Best day | $-681 | $8.45k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | ∞ | 2.70 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $771 | $2.77k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $26 | $116 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.97 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $2.28k | $204k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-90.1k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.46k | $3k | $6.13k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.081 | 0.618 | 0.264 | 0.064 |
| Calmar | 1.759 | 1.759 | 1.759 | 1.759 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 327.0 | 327.0 | 327.0 | 327.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 98% | 12% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 38% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 54% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | 3 | 27 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 9 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 57 | 8000 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 3 | 218 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | 45% | 37% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | 0.962 | 0.743 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | 0.994 | 0.034 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | 85% | 56% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 31.7 | 266.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 11.8 | 30.9 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | 3 | 146 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 14.81 | 0.31 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 0% | 85% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 100% | 14% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 67% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0035 | 0.0456 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0068 | 0.0743 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.420 | 0.561 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-0 | $5.69k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -0.0% | 3.8% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.2539 | 0.2539 | 0.2539 | 0.2539 |
| Alpha ($) | $-10.1k | $-10.1k | $-10.1k | $-10.1k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -25.2% | -25.2% | -25.2% | -25.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.194 | -0.194 | -0.194 | -0.194 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 9.13e-8; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $9.3k |
| $66.5k |
| Worst day | $-681 | $-1.79k | $-5.46k | $-57.7k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| N/A |
| $771 |
| $2.77k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 22% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31% | 1% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55% | 13% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 82% | 10% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 99% | 75% |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 2% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | -0.0428 | -0.0111 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | N/A | 57.00 | 8000.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | 1.97 | 1.15 |
| Avg ticket | N/A | N/A | $1.25k | $2.39k |
| Median ticket | N/A | N/A | $25 | $23 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 1.00 | 0.08 |
| Quiet weeks | N/A | N/A | 0 | 29 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 2.42 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| US Election | $334k | 75% | 8 |
| Dem Nominee | $158k | 67% | 3 |
| Trump Presidency | $-83.7k | 33% | 6 |
| Global Elections | $75.8k | 100% | 11 |
| State Presidential Election | $-73.9k | 0% | 2 |
| rabios | $-69k | 0% | 1 |
| RFK Jr | $55.6k | 100% | 1 |
| LA | $50.2k | 100% | 1 |
| Ukraine | $38.8k | 100% | 4 |
| Trump | $-38.4k | 58% | 12 |
| Politics | $36.7k | 81% | 43 |
| Gov Shutdown | $36.3k | 100% | 9 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcd1b6b71… | $204k | $179k | 114.1% |
| 0x9e907163… | $153k | $1.44M | 10.6% |
| 0x265366ed… | $124k | $530k | 23.4% |
| 0x2a86b397… | $-90.1k | $96.1k | -93.8% |
| 0xaf99acf9… | $-69k | $71k | -97.1% |
| 0x6cc501fa… | $66.3k | $33.7k | 196.6% |
| 0x70357deb… | $-64.5k | $64.5k | -100.0% |
| 0x942327fd… | $55.6k | $25k | 222.5% |
| 0x5a965e94… | $50.2k | $229k | 21.9% |
| 0x4b78de44… | $-38.7k | $56.8k | -68.2% |
| 0x34b5567e… | $-38.2k | $43.7k | -87.4% |
| 0x87822b3d… | $36k | $561k | 6.4% |
| 0x8f97d034… | $-35.8k | $43.4k | -82.5% |
| 0x037f0d44… | $33.7k | $332k | 10.2% |
| 0xaf51603d… | $28.8k | $100k | 28.8% |
| 1321 |
| 1321 |
| 1321 |
| 1321 |