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Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0xe613…540e · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0xe613…540e 0xe613…540e 0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e
This wallet is categorized as a Contrarian Fader because fills lean against recent price moves and it averages down.
Contrarian score is -0.09 (negative = buying against recent moves) with average-down share 48%.
Holds stretch longer (median 10.3 days) while waiting for reversion.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:08:29 UTC
Board ranks Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $115k $212k $766k Realized PnL $-539 $-1.34M $-571k $870k Win rate 20% 18% 23% 30% ROI -0% -41% -10% 9% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.289 0.329 0.054 Markets 43 168 471 752 Best day $-2.09k $145k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 1.00 0.35 0.79 1.28 Mean trade PnL $-2 $-1.71k $-597 $290 Median trade PnL $-50 $-176 $-147 $-3 Payoff ratio 3.90 1.64 2.66 2.95 Largest win $43k $88k $529k $529k Largest loss $-65.5k $-65.5k $-248k $-248k Expectancy $-2
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $56.9k $27.8k $23.1k Sortino (daily) 0.046 1.607 1.271 0.036 Calmar 1.765 1.765 1.765 1.765 Drawdown duration (days) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 20% 4% 16% 11% Concentration top-5 59% 14% 28% 26% Concentration top-10 67% 22% 36% 34% Max win streak 3 6 6 15 Max loss streak 37 45 45 111
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 1164 8473 22317 49003 Unique markets 43 168 471 752 Active days ratio 200% 114% 103% 100% Avg entry price 0.061 0.056 0.037 0.034 Portfolio HHI 0.079 0.020 0.029 0.039 Maker share (notional) 100% 91% 95% 97% Two-sided share 0%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 5.6 20.0 119.5 298.4 Holding time median (h) 6.2 15.3 40.4 248.0 Max concurrent 40 162 438 645 Disposition ratio N/A 0.47 0.17 0.03 Add-to-winner share 45% 42% 46% 46% Average-down share 48% 49% 45% 48% Tilt ratio 0.58
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 100% 96% 94% 96% Brier (weighted) 0.1091 0.0443 0.1020 0.1415 Brier (unweighted) 0.0169 0.0181 0.0259 0.0402 Entry timing mean 0.856 0.739 0.770 0.738 Exit quality ($) $299 $1.13k $2.73k $944 Exit quality ROI gap 160.0% 75.1% 71.4% 83.8%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean 0.2013 0.2013 0.2013 0.2013 Alpha ($) $0 $0 $0 $0 Alpha ROI gap 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Contrarian score -0.087 -0.087 -0.087 -0.087 Post-fill drift -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 Post-fill candles (mean) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Post-fill observations 4466
Archetype scores Contrarian Fader: 57.1% Longshot Hunter: 48.9% Conviction Holder: 48.7% Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.0% Tilted Gambler: 31.8% Worst day $-2.09k $-19.7k $-19.7k $-351k
Spread capture 0.0070 -0.0112 -0.0030 -0.0014
Inventory turnover 1164.00 8473.00 22317.00 49003.00
Capital velocity 0.14 0.10 0.19 0.23
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -844.90 -1139.37
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $485k 30% 655 Soccer $86.7k 28% 88 Politics $61.5k 38% 109 Eurovision $57.7k 27% 37 French Election $40.2k 44% 27 2026 FIFA World Cup $33.3k 24% 49 invitational $-18.9k 29% 93 Crypto $18.3k 25% 85 Boxing $14k 50% 4 NCAA $12.8k 27% 70 Colombia Election $10.8k 18% 39 Wimbledon $9.38k 24% 94
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x22e7b5e3… $422k $910k 46.4% 0x9b6fef24… $281k $1.41M 20.0% 0x7976b8db… $229k $330k 69.2% 0x375409bc… $162k $28.9k 560.3% 0x0c4cd205… $158k $29.3k 538.8% 0xa5501b4d… $124k $17k 732.7% 0x4f3421fb… $123k $29.6k 415.2% 0xb6b3d7a2… $109k $239k 45.7% 0xb41303fe… $-99.7k $166k -60.1% 0xb4961db4… $97.4k $194k 50.2% 0x30d55d81… $96.2k $31.6k 304.6% 0xdf6e9ed2… $74.6k $172k 43.5% 0xc6ddb19f… $73.2k $93.9k 78.0% 0xf29e8ca1… $-65.5k $70.7k -92.6% 0x1595b481… $61k $29.5k 206.7%
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0xb4961db4b7… entry 0.195 