Loading trader…
P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0xe40e…a94d · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0xe40e…a94d 0X
0xe40e…a94d 0xe40ea00e74059c76c0035c919ef6b99c3e25a94d
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
68% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (58%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.84).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:03:31 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A N/A N/A $484k Realized PnL $0 $298k $368k $209k Win rate N/A 50% 54% 58% ROI N/A 23% 13% 2% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.374 0.207 0.205 Markets 0 25 989 1000 Best day $-3 $18.5k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor N/A 19.81 2.86 1.18 Mean trade PnL N/A $7.1k $289 $134 Median trade PnL N/A $-39 $2 $4 Payoff ratio N/A 19.81 2.42 0.84 Largest win N/A $290k $290k $290k Largest loss N/A $-5.85k $-40.2k $-40.2k Expectancy N/A
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $7k $3.76k $4.63k Sortino (daily) N/A 17.699 0.383 0.267 Calmar 9.756 9.756 9.756 9.756 Drawdown duration (days) 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.5
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 N/A 90% 39% 12% Concentration top-5 N/A 97% 71% 40% Concentration top-10 N/A 98% 76% 50% Max win streak N/A 6 34 34 Max loss streak N/A 6 11 26
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 0 727 16235 20855 Unique markets 0 25 989 1000 Active days ratio N/A 133% 100% 89% Avg entry price N/A 0.061 0.043 0.015 Portfolio HHI N/A 0.066 0.012 0.014 Maker share (notional) N/A 99% 99% 99% Two-sided share N/A
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) N/A 37.1 18.9 189.6 Holding time median (h) N/A 37.4 13.2 15.6 Max concurrent N/A 25 603 611 Disposition ratio N/A 2.17 0.94 0.78 Add-to-winner share N/A 26% 42% 44% Average-down share N/A 54% 42% 40% Tilt ratio N/A
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution N/A 100% 47% 47% Brier (weighted) N/A 0.2400 0.1330 0.0371 Brier (unweighted) N/A 0.0806 0.0587 0.0528 Entry timing mean N/A 0.563 0.886 0.881 Exit quality ($) N/A $35.7k $1.32k $1.91k Exit quality ROI gap N/A -17.4% -0.6% 2.3%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 Alpha ($) $-1 $-1 $-1 $-1 Alpha ROI gap -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% Contrarian score -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 Post-fill drift -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 Post-fill candles (mean) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Favorite Grinder: 60.7% Tilted Gambler: 46.5% Scalper: 42.7% News Sniper: 40.6% Contrarian Fader: 31.0% Worst day $-3 $-209 $-3.74k $-20k
Spread capture N/A -0.0021 -0.0090 -0.0087
Inventory turnover N/A 727.00 16235.00 20855.00
Capital velocity N/A 0.01 0.47 0.14
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -2327.50 195.32
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $159k 56% 1423 Bitcoin $25.3k 92% 62 Crypto $17.3k 100% 14 Ethereum $4.24k 92% 13 Recurring $2.06k 75% 4 2026 FIFA World Cup $591 100% 1 NBA $314 67% 3 Solana $259 100% 1 FDV $116 80% 5 uncategorized $1 100% 1
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x9b6fef24… $298k $1.22M 24.4% 0x375409bc… $241k $40.2k 600.3% 0x0c4cd205… $184k $41.7k 441.0% 0x30d55d81… $168k $44.7k 376.8% 0x4f3421fb… $143k $162k 88.1% 0x1595b481… $90.1k $40.2k 224.2% 0x9be56371… $41.1k $40.2k 102.3% 0xe5743240… $-40.2k $40.2k -100.0% 0x506f80bc… $-37k $40.2k -92.2% 0xbce6698c… $-37k $127k -29.1% 0x33a87d02… $-37k $40.2k -92.1% 0x51e8c8df… $-36.8k $40.2k -91.7% 0xff0cfa95… $-36.7k $40.2k -91.4% 0x9779c09f… $-36.7k $40.2k -91.2% 0x233ce0c3… $-36.4k $40.2k -90.5%
0xaff00a04f4… entry 0.059 timing 0.42
0x0075e9f47e… entry 0.059 timing 0.82
0x160b7681f6… entry 0.059 timing 0.78
0x09f8d2f098… entry 0.059 timing 0.59
0xab686ea7ac… entry 0.059 timing 0.42
0x1f5ed2af66… entry 0.059 timing 0.16
0x6f9b471a00… entry 0.059 timing 0.21
0x61e2d5f5b1… entry 0.059 timing 0.76
0x2cf05a77df… entry 0.059 timing 0.43
0x41ac5613cb… entry 0.059 timing 0.75
0xf216567853… entry 0.059 timing 0.75
0xd0a6bb6583… entry 0.059 timing 0.74
0x1352df0d34… entry 0.059 timing 0.19
0x8bc2b8b1d7… entry 0.059 timing 0.63
0x523e7e265f… entry 0.059 timing 0.57
0x754c4acd77… entry 0.059 timing 0.57
0xa5fac3c1ca… entry 0.059 timing 0.58
0xfb929062b7… entry 0.059 timing 0.39
0x90fbd6eb4f… entry 0.059 timing 0.43
0xaa4bd04d6f… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x05cc801d87… entry 0.059 timing 0.89
0xcdb2f34769… entry 0.059 timing 0.89
0x4f3421fb2d… entry 0.017
0x3388506cb7… entry 0.059 timing 0.91
0x2fb6de729a… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x6195707ff6… entry 0.059 timing 0.91
0xd7f437349a… entry 0.059 timing 0.96
0xb0be790820… entry 0.059 timing 0.89
0x0f3d24f754… entry 0.059 timing 0.89
0x7c4ca9a142… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x724882a371… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0xf194bb7ecf… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x73834cc558… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x232c3599d8… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x94172960bd… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0x8e1b0031d0… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0x5aba78bbd7… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0xe6513ee085… entry 0.059 timing 0.83
0x99b0c45e47… entry 0.059 timing 0.93
0x942e9af4f4… entry 0.059 timing 0.91
0xecd039cedb… entry 0.059 timing 0.88
0xa584a79cb0… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x54cb6d2f62… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x6650460a67… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x16e5b85463… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0xd0b5bf24d0… entry 0.059 timing 0.88
0xb979682762… entry 0.059 timing 0.88
0x18710f6a97… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0x5c030e13c2… entry 0.059 timing 0.84
0x01d4fd3b72… entry 0.059 timing 0.91
0x949f83b428… entry 0.059 timing 0.96
0x9717e7f470… entry 0.059 timing 0.79
0x4811a66f83… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x9d0fc72dc3… entry 0.059 timing 0.86
0x7557af44e2… entry 0.059
0x27fae33b31… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0xaf36d88675… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0x8c6a94ce19… entry 0.059 timing 0.91
0xf24589cadd… entry 0.059 timing 0.92
0x1cfdb66afd… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0x844790eeea… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0xa7c4f1bc82… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x7fd68f8e22… entry 0.059 timing 0.87
0x66e672b765… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0x7b21f0965b… entry 0.059 timing 0.83
0x5c6e3f1f57… entry 0.059 timing 0.93
0x7cf4028223… entry 0.059 timing 0.81
0x53eedb207b… entry 0.059 timing 0.86
0x7f868e4504… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0x0dc94b6b94… entry 0.059 timing 0.96
0x435096167b… entry 0.059 timing 0.92
0xbfcf11b6c1… entry 0.059 timing 0.94
0x0fe1739124… entry 0.059
0x3d17bc059c… entry 0.059
0xb3ad06a4c6… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xc09071eddb… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x06af88ca5e… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x649f4ef765… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x9c158daccc… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x93a9fd52d1… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x2c782936b5… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x26a01dfc9e… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xcd90d3aa75… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x1bf487c229… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x4026792fa9… entry 0.059
0x3a9623e167… entry 0.059
0xab04768ed4… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xc07b73371b… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xe6337cef93… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x8cd0025340… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x155df3a706… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xc0e5f9b82d… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x3dd70f9d02… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x3029fd382c… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x6884f93ef6… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xab8f159c92… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xf76496fe91… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x7363011488… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xa25f0ecaa6… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x61a7af612d… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x8091185bdf… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xff34a3c103… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x0b35d8de93… entry 0.059
0xadeb0cd9e1… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x3dda6da9fc… entry 0.059
0xe7178e6245… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x5a5a832f26… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xa3acfaa0e6… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xb3447969f0… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x8e77355bf0… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x79f830f138… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x91fcc4e4e0… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x7e85dffe7d… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xec3b2668b3… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x3dfc66900c… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x5428ac7f75… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x23eb4fc352… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xf19f0c2cd5… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0xae12905be6… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x06d3e1ef16… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x32cfa52198… entry 0.017 timing 0.85
0x7b52405ad0… entry 0.017
0xe99cc59f32… entry 0.017
0x0c4cd2055d… entry 0.017
0x30d55d8124… entry 0.017
0x375409bc5e… entry 0.017
0x0189df05ed… entry 0.017
0x1595b4818e… entry 0.017
0x9be56371f6… entry 0.017
0x37a6de1b21… entry 0.017
0xad9cf9a89f… entry 0.006
0x1ec4c92f05… entry 0.050
0xb6b3d7a203… entry 0.051
0xe532af9ad5… entry 0.090
0x26aec6c210… entry 0.080
0x23d50565eb… entry 0.070