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0xde9f…d43c · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0xde9f…d43c
0xde9f7f4e77a1595623ceb58e469f776257ccd43c
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.18 of market life) and 97% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (60350.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:29:15 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $38.2k | N/A | $947k |
| Realized PnL | $-481 | $26.3k | $76.9k | $581k |
| Win rate | 50% | 51% | 50% | 52% |
| ROI | -2% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.256 | 0.160 | 0.300 |
| Markets | 16 | 370 | 1612 | 3253 |
| Best day | $23 | $32.2k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-17 | $40 | $27 | $58 |
| Median trade PnL | $-1 | $1 | $0 | $2 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.92 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| Largest win | $2.48k | $11.5k | $28.6k | $51.8k |
| Largest loss | $-3.18k | $-24.4k | $-40.4k | $-40.4k |
| Expectancy | $-17 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $21.3k | $19.8k | $18.6k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.303 | 0.284 | 0.195 | 0.303 |
| Calmar | 3.511 | 3.511 | 3.511 | 3.511 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 41.0 | 41.0 | 41.0 | 41.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 39% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 91% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| Concentration top-10 | 99% | 22% | 12% | 4% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 5 | 65 | 65 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 98 | 3232 | 15166 | 60350 |
| Unique markets | 16 | 370 | 1612 | 3253 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
| Avg entry price | 0.575 | 0.489 | 0.513 | 0.508 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.323 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Maker share (notional) | 6% | 4% | 5% | 11% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.7 | 1.9 | 7.6 | 4.4 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Max concurrent | 16 | 367 | 1576 | 3187 |
| Disposition ratio | 1.19 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Add-to-winner share | 68% | 62% | 62% | 63% |
| Average-down share | 29% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.30 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 98% | 97% | 97% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0509 | 0.1674 | 0.1663 | 0.1551 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0881 | 0.1495 | 0.1452 | 0.1368 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.108 | 0.189 | 0.203 | 0.183 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $0 | $13 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0431 | 0.0431 | 0.0431 | 0.0431 |
| Alpha ($) | $1.39k | $1.39k | $1.39k | $1.39k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -13.8% | -13.8% | -13.8% | -13.8% |
| Contrarian score | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0431 | 0.0431 | 0.0431 | 0.0431 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 72.6%
- Scalper: 67.8%
- Tilted Gambler: 40.1%
- Conviction Holder: 35.6%
- Contrarian Fader: 25.0%
| Worst day | $23 | $-19.4k | $-30.8k | $-39.7k |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 85% | 84% | 85% | 50% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | 98.00 | 3232.00 | 15166.00 | 60350.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.61 |
| Avg ticket | $257 | $243 | $235 | $190 |
| Median ticket | $13 | $13 | $14 | $13 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -790.40 | -1128.05 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Tennis | $567k | 53% | 9591 |
| uncategorized | $8.63k | 60% | 81 |
| Sports | $4.31k | 45% | 228 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $1.53k | 48% | 25 |
| Soccer | $-816 | 45% | 65 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x07c5e374… | $-38.3k | $42.6k | -90.0% |
| 0x8ae3768a… | $34.9k | $43.3k | 80.7% |
| 0x98b4e238… | $-28.2k | $39.2k | -71.9% |
| 0x6971a373… | $-28.1k | $32.9k | -85.2% |
| 0xa5c24fac… | $25.9k | $44.6k | 58.2% |
| 0xf7266d7d… | $24k | $12.9k | 186.4% |
| 0x3ea5caf5… | $-23.8k | $27.9k | -85.3% |
| 0xb96585ac… | $-22.3k | $31.1k | -71.6% |
| 0x586a3f86… | $21.2k | $34.8k | 61.0% |
| 0x9188ea71… | $-20.5k | $42.2k | -48.5% |
| 0x4a160c5f… | $-19.4k | $28.4k | -68.4% |
| 0xaa9814ea… | $-19.2k | $24.8k | -77.1% |
| 0xbc3782e7… | $19k | $9.75k | 195.2% |
| 0xf2101b6f… | $19k | $38.3k | 49.6% |
| 0xf2dbce37… | $-17.4k | $17.5k | -99.9% |