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0xdd22…9ef1 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0xdd22…9ef1
0xdd225a03cd7ed89e3931906c67c75ab31cf89ef1
Secondary: Favorite Grinder
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 2.04 and disposition ratio 0.07, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 1112.3), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Favorite Grinder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:44:31 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $433k |
| Realized PnL | $3.94k | $-779k | $10k | $433k |
| Win rate | 100% | 39% | 54% | 68% |
| ROI | 2% | -41% | 0% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.383 | -0.069 | 0.225 |
| Markets | 3 | 265 | 320 | 362 |
| Best day | $34 | $3.46k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 0.30 | 1.01 | 1.20 |
| Mean trade PnL | $985 | $-31.2k | $82 | $170 |
| Median trade PnL | $744 | $-2.37k | $0 | $9 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.47 | 0.86 | 0.56 |
| Largest win | $2.45k | $185k | $185k | $185k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-139k | $-139k | $-139k |
| Expectancy | $985 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $1.38k | $2.39k | $3.17k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.705 | -0.051 | 0.411 |
| Calmar | 30.777 | 30.777 | 30.777 | 30.777 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 43.0 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 43.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 62% | 13% | 5% | 4% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 53% | 25% | 19% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 86% | 43% | 33% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 5 | 9 | 24 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 20 | 302 | 2687 | 4000 |
| Unique markets | 3 | 265 | 320 | 362 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 67% | 83% | 69% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.012 | 0.170 | 0.389 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.507 | 0.111 | 0.116 | 0.094 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 67% | 61% | 68% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 27.8 | 44.1 | 311.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 260 | 299 | 333 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.12 | 1.76 | 0.07 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 57% | 63% | 53% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 43% | 18% | 20% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 0% | 33% | 68% | 71% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.2867 | 0.2033 | 0.1995 | 0.0819 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.3445 | 0.2134 | 0.1773 | 0.1127 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.757 | 0.915 | 0.739 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-12.5k | $6.05k | $329 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -10.5% | 14.9% | 50.7% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 |
| Alpha ($) | $-632 | $-632 | $-632 | $-632 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -85.6% | -85.6% | -85.6% | -85.6% |
| Contrarian score | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.115 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0034 | -0.0034 | -0.0034 | -0.0034 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 50.8%
- Favorite Grinder: 48.7%
- Scalper: 47.1%
- News Sniper: 43.7%
- Conviction Holder: 30.3%
| Worst day | $34 | $-636 | $-11k | $-12.4k |
| 0.40–0.60 | 100% | 64% | 72% | 62% | 46% |
| Spread capture | N/A | -0.0221 | -0.0011 | -0.0140 |
| Inventory turnover | 20.00 | 302.00 | 2687.00 | 4000.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Avg ticket | $190 | $29 | $313 | $989 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -375.60 | 30.97 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Culture | $99.5k | 72% | 127 |
| Tech | $63.6k | 70% | 67 |
| Sports | $52.9k | 65% | 388 |
| Politics | $38.1k | 69% | 248 |
| Up or Down | $35.1k | 44% | 86 |
| Parent For Derivative | $18.6k | 72% | 32 |
| Geopolitics | $15.8k | 67% | 57 |
| Mentions | $15.7k | 75% | 138 |
| Crypto | $10.3k | 72% | 68 |
| Trump | $8.12k | 76% | 121 |
| Ranger | $6.39k | 67% | 6 |
| AI | $-6.13k | 25% | 16 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xdbbbbd6e… | $195k | $293k | 66.7% |
| 0x914abe14… | $194k | $290k | 66.7% |
| 0xadf4acda… | $185k | $92.3k | 200.0% |
| 0xa7b5b123… | $134k | $67k | 200.0% |
| 0xe43caeee… | $134k | $201k | 66.7% |
| 0xb8c4eb2b… | $133k | $66.7k | 200.0% |
| 0x08ac1bbc… | $131k | $196k | 66.7% |
| 0x889e0fa1… | $131k | $196k | 66.7% |
| 0x017f7984… | $127k | $190k | 66.7% |
| 0x43bde2aa… | $125k | $62.6k | 200.0% |
| 0x826887e3… | $125k | $188k | 66.7% |
| 0x0f5e01cf… | $-97.7k | $97.7k | -100.0% |
| 0x4b84a8e0… | $-97.7k | $97.7k | -100.0% |
| 0x8b10bf2e… | $-96.8k | $96.8k | -100.0% |
| 0x95f726bb… | $-96.8k | $96.8k | -100.0% |