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0xd696…8a49
0xd6966eb1ae7b52320ba7ab1016680198c9e08a49
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 25191 with median hold 5.1 hours, maker share only 18%.
Capital velocity 1.5 and held-to-resolution 92% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:37:48 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$-508k
Open PnL
$-2.57M
Max drawdown
$835k
Underwater days
135
Equity curve
Board ranks
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $2.98k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-51.1k | $-49.2k | $331k | $5.35M |
| Win rate | 88% | 92% | 88% | 89% |
| ROI | -59% | -54% | 18% | 41% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.370 | -0.224 | -0.059 |
| Markets | 20 | 22 | 468 | 4432 |
| Best day | $1.04k | $1.04k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1.94 | 4.29 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-6.38k | $-3.79k | $1.02k | $1.9k |
| Median trade PnL | $328 | $257 | $313 | $640 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.55 |
| Largest win | $6.67k | $6.67k | $65.2k | $129k |
| Largest loss | $-62.4k | $-62.4k | $-119k | $-119k |
| Expectancy | $-6.38k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $27.9k | $49.8k | $33.7k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | -0.144 | -0.049 |
| Calmar | -0.608 | -0.608 | -0.608 | -0.608 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 134.5 | 134.5 | 134.5 | 134.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 85% | 83% | 12% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 98% | 36% | 6% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 55% | 10% |
| Max win streak | 4 | 9 | 23 | 47 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 162 | 165 | 6357 | 25191 |
| Unique markets | 20 | 22 | 468 | 4432 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 57% | 87% | 88% |
| Avg entry price | 0.588 | 0.591 | 0.480 | 0.541 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.173 | 0.170 | 0.021 | 0.002 |
| Maker share (notional) | 41% | 41% | 45% | 18% |
| Two-sided share | 5% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 15.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | 13.9 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Max concurrent | 19 | 21 | 400 | 4141 |
| Disposition ratio | 2.03 | 2.05 | 0.30 | 0.77 |
| Add-to-winner share | 33% | 30% | 21% | 37% |
| Average-down share | 56% | 60% | 37% | 31% |
| Tilt ratio | 3.56 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 82% | 85% | 81% | 92% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.4698 | 0.4519 | 0.1289 | 0.1610 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1682 | 0.1486 | 0.1743 | 0.2110 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.802 | 0.779 | 0.838 | 0.797 |
| Exit quality ($) | $0 | $-0 | $-0 | $-3 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0977 | -0.0977 | -0.0977 | -0.0977 |
| Alpha ($) | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Contrarian score | 0.377 | 0.377 | 0.377 | 0.377 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0544 | -0.0544 | -0.0544 | -0.0544 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Post-fill observations | 77 |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 68.3%
- Tilted Gambler: 60.2%
- News Sniper: 47.6%
- Favorite Grinder: 35.7%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.0%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 2.47e-31; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xc86b2932e5… entry 0.230 timing 0.82
- 0xb42257cb01… entry 0.250 timing 0.99
- 0xe6f040d202… entry 0.190 timing 0.99
- 0x22f00bf63a… entry 0.210
- 0xc4dfc69667… entry 0.170 timing 0.98
- 0x8642853e20… entry 0.280 timing 0.92
- 0xb60958f181… entry 0.110 timing 0.97
- 0x26fa07784e… entry 0.270 timing 1.00
- 0xae9433e408… entry 0.130 timing 0.38
- 0x066b350a0f… entry 0.242 timing 0.98
- 0x4a2085d9d7… entry 0.230 timing 1.00
- 0xdd646d5573… entry 0.230 timing 0.98
- 0xf029efba2f… entry 0.230 timing 0.10
- 0x87254ca39f… entry 0.073
- 0x41262cbe41… entry 0.120 timing 0.83
- 0xa5012b4929… entry 0.118 timing 0.18
- 0x9415a68a67… entry 0.160 timing 0.21
- 0x6cde1cf148… entry 0.250 timing 0.94
- 0xccd465f1b4… entry 0.120 timing 0.88