0xd42f…047d

0xd42f6a1634a3707e27cbae14ca966068e5d1047d

News SniperGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.

Weekly activity shows 28 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.75 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).

Holds stay short (median 22.4 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 14:49:07 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$983k

Open PnL

Max drawdown

$101k

Underwater days

428

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$983k
Realized PnL	$0	$0	$200	$984k
Win rate	N/A	N/A	100%	45%
ROI	N/A	N/A	1%	4%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	N/A	0.225	-0.017
Markets	0	0	0	146
Best day	$0	$0

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	N/A	∞	1.18
Mean trade PnL	N/A	N/A	$200	$98
Median trade PnL	N/A	N/A	$200	$-2
Payoff ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.44
Largest win	N/A	N/A	$200	$233k
Largest loss	N/A	N/A	N/A	$-156k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	N/A	$26	$5.7k
Sortino (daily)	-0.017	-0.017	0.371	-0.016
Calmar	-0.569	-0.569	-0.569	-0.569
Drawdown duration (days)	23.0	23.0	23.0	23.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	N/A	100%	2%
Concentration top-5	N/A	N/A	100%	10%
Concentration top-10	N/A	N/A	100%	16%
Max win streak	N/A	N/A	1	17
Max loss streak	N/A	N/A	N/A	26

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	0	0	0	5998
Unique markets	0	0	0	146
Active days ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	30%
Avg entry price	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.245
Portfolio HHI	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.108
Maker share (notional)	N/A	N/A	N/A	68%
Two-sided share	N/A

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	169.5
Holding time median (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	22.4
Max concurrent	N/A	N/A	N/A	73
Disposition ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.81
Add-to-winner share	N/A	N/A	N/A	70%
Average-down share	N/A	N/A	N/A	24%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	N/A	N/A	45%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	N/A	0.0001	0.0505
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	N/A	0.0001	0.0864
Entry timing mean	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.752
Exit quality ($)	N/A	N/A	$-0	$78
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	N/A	-0.0%	1272.0%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0140	-0.0140	-0.0140	-0.0140
Alpha ($)	$-29	$-29	$-29	$-29
Alpha ROI gap	-15.3%	-15.3%	-15.3%	-15.3%
Contrarian score	0.450	0.450	0.450	0.450
Post-fill drift	-0.0018	-0.0018	-0.0018	-0.0018
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

News Sniper: 62.4%
Favorite Grinder: 42.9%
Tilted Gambler: 38.1%
Scalper: 37.2%
Conviction Holder: 25.8%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x4ed3add94c… entry 0.250
0x29ab6fca20… entry 0.001
0x792f31a112… entry 0.001
0x566546a3e8… entry 0.001
0xdd0c4a2c0d… entry 0.034
0x0bbe9bf606… entry 0.067
0x93be783365… entry 0.033
0xf4aab57cee… entry 0.033
0x17e71ccb48… entry 0.067
0xd1cfd61da9… entry 0.061 timing 0.75
0x929d9d9c73… entry 0.067
0x15ef292e55… entry 0.027
0x0059586328… entry 0.200
0x782c06601c… entry 0.048 timing 0.85
0x68c8641a89… entry 0.002
0x5b8e32e1fb… entry 0.030 timing 0.80
0x9d98de23d9… entry 0.023 timing 0.79
0xf5dbc139bf… entry 0.010
0x08263ba32b… entry 0.049
0x01c610adeb… entry 0.001

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0xd42f…047d

0xd42f6a1634a3707e27cbae14ca966068e5d1047d

This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.

Weekly activity shows 28 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.75 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).

Holds stay short (median 22.4 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$983k

Realized PnL

$200

$984k

Win rate

N/A

100%

45%

ROI

N/A

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.225

-0.017

Markets

146

Best day

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

∞

1.18

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$200

$98

Median trade PnL

N/A

$200

$-2

Payoff ratio

N/A

1.44

Largest win

N/A

$200

$233k

Largest loss

N/A

$-156k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$26

$5.7k

Sortino (daily)

-0.017

0.371

-0.016

Calmar

-0.569

Drawdown duration (days)

23.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

100%

Concentration top-5

N/A

100%

10%

Concentration top-10

N/A

100%

16%

Max win streak

N/A

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

5998

Unique markets

146

Active days ratio

N/A

30%

Avg entry price

N/A

0.245

Portfolio HHI

N/A

0.108

Maker share (notional)

N/A

68%

Two-sided share

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

169.5

Holding time median (h)

N/A

22.4

Max concurrent

N/A

Disposition ratio

N/A

1.81

Add-to-winner share

N/A

70%

Average-down share

N/A

24%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

45%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.0001

0.0505

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.0001

0.0864

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.752

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-0

$78

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

-0.0%

1272.0%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0140

Alpha ($)

$-29

Alpha ROI gap

-15.3%

Contrarian score

0.450

Post-fill drift

-0.0018

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

News Sniper: 62.4%

Favorite Grinder: 42.9%

Tilted Gambler: 38.1%

Scalper: 37.2%

Conviction Holder: 25.8%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x4ed3add94c… entry 0.250
0x29ab6fca20… entry 0.001
0x792f31a112… entry 0.001
0x566546a3e8… entry 0.001
0xdd0c4a2c0d… entry 0.034
0x0bbe9bf606… entry 0.067
0x93be783365… entry 0.033
0xf4aab57cee… entry 0.033
0x17e71ccb48… entry 0.067
0xd1cfd61da9… entry 0.061 timing 0.75
0x929d9d9c73… entry 0.067
0x15ef292e55… entry 0.027
0x0059586328… entry 0.200
0x782c06601c… entry 0.048 timing 0.85
0x68c8641a89… entry 0.002
0x5b8e32e1fb… entry 0.030 timing 0.80
0x9d98de23d9… entry 0.023 timing 0.79
0xf5dbc139bf… entry 0.010
0x08263ba32b… entry 0.049
0x01c610adeb… entry 0.001

Politics	$390k	46%	707
US Election	$164k	18%	33
u.s. election	$163k	26%	23
Sports	$-103k	39%	1422
USA Election	$90.5k	43%	658
Biden	$59.6k	48%	284
Trump	$-51.7k	52%	446
Margin of Victory	$29.6k	37%	46
NFL	$-24.4k	42%	479
Dem Nominee	$23.6k	32%	25
Bitcoin	$22.4k	43%	120
Swing States	$-22.1k	28%	79

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x265366ed…	$246k	$58.2k	422.1%
0x2a63e805…	$227k	$99.5k	228.0%
0xc6485bb7…	$219k	$352k	62.4%
0x96f6fb65…	$210k	$459k	45.8%
0xf8f125be…	$180k	$7.72k	2337.5%
0xe41df575…	$172k	$87.8k	195.7%
0xdd22472e…	$-155k	$525k	-29.6%
0x9e907163…	$115k	$57.1k	202.1%
0xafde9e89…	$107k	$122k	87.4%
0xcd54944b…	$86.5k	$6.59k	1312.0%
0xab0132a0…	$-86.1k	$142k	-60.5%
0xfda85d79…	$77.2k	$13.4k	576.1%
0x136e9909…	$-70.5k	$47.3k	-149.2%
0xcf263497…	$-66.9k	$214k	-31.2%
0xc53c00d3…	$65.9k	$202k	32.7%

0xd42f…047d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xd42f…047d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

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