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0xd426…334a · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xd426…334a
0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 0.52 and disposition ratio 11.16, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 32.0), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:18:33 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.24k | N/A | N/A | $435k |
| Realized PnL | $-2.32k | $-4.54k | $41.8k | $683k |
| Win rate | 50% | 59% | 66% | 51% |
| ROI | -44% | -15% | 12% | 39% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.159 | 0.137 | 0.090 |
| Markets | 17 | 89 | 151 | 151 |
| Best day | $857 | $10.1k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 0.35 | 0.61 | 1.82 | 2.98 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-387 | $-93 | $277 | $686 |
| Median trade PnL | $-44 | $33 | $82 | $3 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 2.90 |
| Largest win | $895 | $895 | $8.56k | $113k |
| Largest loss | $-3.01k | $-3.51k | $-7.74k | $-15.5k |
| Expectancy | $-387 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $4.56k | $3.1k | $7.83k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.278 | 0.180 | 0.226 |
| Calmar | 6.134 | 6.134 | 6.134 | 6.134 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 65% | 23% | 7% | 8% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 58% | 34% | 22% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 76% | 53% | 30% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 7 | 9 | 33 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 2 | 3 | 57 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 55 | 746 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Unique markets | 17 | 89 | 151 | 151 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 107% | 107% |
| Avg entry price | 0.349 | 0.547 | 0.373 | 0.373 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.106 | 0.043 | 0.081 | 0.081 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 57.5 | 32.7 | 32.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 36.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Max concurrent | 3 | 11 | 25 | 25 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.81 | 11.16 | 11.16 |
| Add-to-winner share | 56% | 78% | 81% | 81% |
| Average-down share | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.77 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 0% | 6% | 13% | 13% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1904 | 0.1468 | 0.1575 | 0.1764 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1375 | 0.1754 | 0.1427 | 0.1523 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.434 | 0.416 | 0.503 | 0.503 |
| Exit quality ($) | $0 | $-48 | $-361 | $-415 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | -12.6% | -3.9% | -5.0% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0791 | -0.0791 | -0.0791 | -0.0791 |
| Alpha ($) | $-3.32k | $-3.32k | $-3.32k | $-3.32k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -85.8% | -85.8% | -85.8% | -85.8% |
| Contrarian score | 0.129 | 0.129 | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0408 | -0.0408 | -0.0408 | -0.0408 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 60.0%
- Scalper: 53.5%
- News Sniper: 28.4%
- Longshot Hunter: 22.1%
- Conviction Holder: 16.4%
| Worst day | $857 | $-3.38k | $-3.96k | $-19.8k |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 88% | 89% | 79% | 25% |
| Spread capture | N/A | -0.1452 | -0.1509 | -0.1509 |
| Inventory turnover | 55.00 | 746.00 | 2000.00 | 2000.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.57 | 1.90 | 0.57 | 0.11 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -544.50 | -544.50 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Trump | $149k | 55% | 119 |
| Iran | $127k | 67% | 109 |
| Israel | $110k | 63% | 27 |
| Politics | $94.9k | 57% | 206 |
| Gov Shutdown | $53.1k | 54% | 13 |
| Sports | $26.1k | 26% | 65 |
| Iran Ceasefire | $25.8k | 100% | 3 |
| Congress | $-22.6k | 0% | 3 |
| Trump Presidency | $19.5k | 50% | 12 |
| Geopolitics | $16k | 53% | 40 |
| Finance | $15.3k | 77% | 26 |
| Middle East | $12.3k | 82% | 11 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x4b78de44… | $113k | $20.5k | 552.9% |
| 0xd86a8160… | $98.7k | $23.2k | 425.1% |
| 0x60918e36… | $37.9k | $13.1k | 290.0% |
| 0x21c3ebd6… | $32.1k | $4.68k | 686.7% |
| 0x077fc0c4… | $25.9k | $14.4k | 180.1% |
| 0xd7b39f91… | $25.1k | $1.48k | 1695.4% |
| 0xf5543e90… | $23.9k | $4.11k | 580.9% |
| 0xa70fc369… | $22.4k | $15.6k | 144.0% |
| 0x8f48b7a8… | $19.4k | $64k | 30.3% |
| 0xd5a91c9e… | $19.1k | $26.9k | 71.0% |
| 0x46c09232… | $17.5k | $4.28k | 409.6% |
| 0x41eda073… | $-15.5k | $15.5k | -100.0% |
| 0x713641f7… | $13.3k | $1.44k | 922.0% |
| 0x6a8cfe84… | $12.5k | $22.6k | 55.4% |
| 0x2b31e7ad… | $-12.4k | $13.2k | -93.9% |