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0xd398…46d7 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xd398…46d7
0xd3989ba133ab48b5b3a81e3dba9b37b5966a46d7
Secondary: Contrarian Fader
This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.
Weekly activity shows 57 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.65 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).
Holds stay short (median 28.1 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.
A close second label is Contrarian Fader, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:35:27 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $626k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | $629k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 54% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.206 | 0.386 | 0.178 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 |
| Best day | $-1 | $2 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.43 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $289 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $3 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.22 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $68k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-51.6k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $1 | $2 | $4.31k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.170 | 0.392 | 0.347 |
| Calmar | 14.526 | 14.526 | 14.526 | 14.526 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 13% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 23% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 21 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 133 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2000 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.540 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.113 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 53% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 246.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28.1 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 131 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.03 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 46% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 53% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1162 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1339 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.651 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-26 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | 30.7% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0449 | -0.0449 | -0.0449 | -0.0449 |
| Alpha ($) | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 | $-41 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| Contrarian score | -0.196 | -0.196 | -0.196 | -0.196 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0069 | -0.0069 | -0.0069 | -0.0069 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- News Sniper: 56.3%
- Contrarian Fader: 49.8%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.3%
- Scalper: 29.7%
- Conviction Holder: 26.2%
| Worst day | $-1 | $-2 | $-2 | $-16.4k |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | -0.0747 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2000.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.15 |
| Median ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $13 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | -2.36 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $221k | 50% | 479 |
| Politics | $73.1k | 58% | 181 |
| Trump | $62.8k | 57% | 247 |
| Trump Presidency | $53.3k | 58% | 91 |
| Mentions | $53.3k | 55% | 265 |
| NBA | $27.2k | 57% | 30 |
| Inauguration | $24.1k | 38% | 13 |
| Global Elections | $-20.3k | 30% | 10 |
| USA Election | $20.3k | 49% | 55 |
| DNC | $18k | 50% | 16 |
| Israel | $12.2k | 50% | 22 |
| Biden | $11.9k | 54% | 52 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x805d5d29… | $37.2k | $24.7k | 151.0% |
| 0xdf3af400… | $31.7k | $53.6k | 59.1% |
| 0xe4c4ecd6… | $28.4k | $108k | 26.3% |
| 0x6edc6c77… | $25.8k | $10.2k | 254.1% |
| 0x87d67272… | $19.8k | $152k | 13.0% |
| 0xdc3c6b8b… | $17.5k | $2.37k | 738.6% |
| 0xf43e04b0… | $16.1k | $4.98k | 323.1% |
| 0xca0b0a2c… | $15.7k | $13.6k | 115.8% |
| 0xd514cd59… | $14.4k | $62.9k | 22.8% |
| 0x7061eb91… | $14k | $5.13k | 273.6% |
| 0x75dbcd79… | $13.4k | $29.4k | 45.6% |
| 0xc61d58d1… | $13.2k | $116k | 11.3% |
| 0x28225d69… | $13.1k | $92.9k | 14.2% |
| 0x330f4138… | $12.8k | $30.5k | 42.1% |
| 0xa1cef121… | $12k | $44.6k | 27.0% |