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0xd1049158a102840ce595efc6ab683a0cb6fbacef
Secondary: Tilted Gambler
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
73% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (70%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.46).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:30:24 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $4.3k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-2.68k | $28.8k | $34.7k | $23k |
| Win rate | 50% | 86% | 70% | 70% |
| ROI | -8% | 19% | 2% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.776 | -0.236 | -0.220 |
| Markets | 13 | 34 | 90 | 111 |
| Best day | $2.05k | $2.05k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.13 | 10.39 | 1.15 | 1.08 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-1.34k | $3.6k | $738 | $376 |
| Median trade PnL | $-1.34k | $816 | $1.1k | $1.01k |
| Payoff ratio | 0.13 | 1.73 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| Largest win | $390 | $20.1k | $44.9k | $44.9k |
| Largest loss | $-3.07k | $-3.07k | $-88.8k | $-88.8k |
| Expectancy | $-1.34k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $5.91k | $25.3k | $23.6k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.489 | -0.165 | -0.165 |
| Calmar | -0.991 | -0.991 | -0.991 | -0.991 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 42.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 89% | 57% | 18% | 14% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 98% | 55% | 44% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 73% | 66% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 223 | 939 | 2714 | 4690 |
| Unique markets | 13 | 34 | 90 | 111 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 68% | 60% |
| Avg entry price | 0.754 | 0.786 | 0.380 | 0.177 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.152 | 0.072 | 0.036 | 0.035 |
| Maker share (notional) | 71% | 83% | 42% | 52% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 4.9 | 5.1 | 37.0 | 115.5 |
| Holding time median (h) | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 7.8 |
| Max concurrent | 9 | 14 | 50 | 64 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.83 |
| Add-to-winner share | 49% | 67% | 29% | 32% |
| Average-down share | 46% | 33% | 69% | 66% |
| Tilt ratio | 8.60 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 50% | 63% | 63% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0625 | 0.0353 | 0.0355 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0645 | 0.0968 | 0.0969 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.786 | 0.769 | 0.873 | 0.837 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-0 | $-5.55k | $-5.01k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | -0.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0523 | 0.0523 | 0.0523 | 0.0523 |
| Alpha ($) | $-1.38k | $-1.38k | $-1.38k | $-1.38k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -59.9% | -59.9% | -59.9% | -59.9% |
| Contrarian score | -0.428 | -0.428 | -0.428 | -0.428 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0107 | 0.0107 | 0.0107 | 0.0107 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $25.2k |
| $27.6k |
| Worst day | $2.05k | $-15k | $-121k | $-121k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $3.6k |
| $738 |
| $376 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| 1% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 100% | 80% | 83% | 4% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 100% | 74% | 74% | 22% |
| >0.90 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 82% | 73% |
| 0% |
| 3% |
| 3% |
| Spread capture | -0.0012 | 0.0291 | 0.0083 | 0.0392 |
| Inventory turnover | 223.00 | 939.00 | 2714.00 | 4690.00 |
| Capital velocity | 4.98 | 4.66 | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Avg ticket | $720 | $750 | $946 | $1.08k |
| Median ticket | $20 | $34 | $19 | $16 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 376.00 | -85.64 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8.27 |
| 22.44 |
| 15.70 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Geopolitics | $39.1k | 100% | 1 |
| Iran | $-29.5k | 75% | 4 |
| Sports | $18.2k | 68% | 40 |
| Politics | $-14.3k | 75% | 8 |
| Tennis | $11.5k | 100% | 2 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $-3.07k | 0% | 1 |
| Formula 1 | $681 | 100% | 1 |
| Trump | $390 | 100% | 1 |
| fomc | $90 | 100% | 1 |
| Ethereum | $-79 | 0% | 1 |
| Iran Regime | $0 | N/A | 0 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7f481c96… | $-88.8k | $159k | -55.9% |
| 0x971eb98d… | $-56.2k | $72.2k | -77.9% |
| 0x5efa976e… | $39.1k | $603k | 6.5% |
| 0xd8664606… | $-34.6k | $81.7k | -42.3% |
| 0x676e7cda… | $-34k | $68.9k | -49.4% |
| 0xd86a8160… | $-33k | $33k | -100.0% |
| 0xc851fc5a… | $33k | $123k | 26.9% |
| 0xc88e812b… | $29.4k | $40k | 73.5% |
| 0xa7b5b123… | $-20.6k | $36.5k | -56.4% |
| 0xfb2314dc… | $20.1k | $19.9k | 100.5% |
| 0xeb348b65… | $16.4k | $23.6k | 69.5% |
| 0xc09537a0… | $15.6k | $24.4k | 63.9% |
| 0xd894e6a9… | $15k | $32.8k | 45.7% |
| 0x0891e479… | $12.3k | $37.8k | 32.5% |
| 0x2f204628… | $11.2k | $15.9k | 70.4% |
| 2757 |
| 2757 |
| 2757 |
| 2757 |