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0xce5b…047a · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0xce5b…047a
0xce5bec63b40392845a9a504915f607c8e03a047a
Secondary: Tilted Gambler
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 8338 with median hold 16.1 hours, maker share only 14%.
Capital velocity 0.1 and held-to-resolution 1% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:35:50 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $880k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $-27.8k | ∞ |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 17% | 14% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | -1% | 5% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.029 | 0.183 | 0.037 |
| Markets | 7 | 10 | 653 | 3743 |
| Best day | $-0 | $3 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $-795 | $321 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $-0 | $-0 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 4.69 | 7.55 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $860k | ∞ |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-888k | $-1.16M |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $2 | $157k | $61.3k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.040 | -0.031 | 8664.709 | 0.040 |
| Calmar | 1.284 | 1.284 | 1.284 | 1.284 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 97% | 23% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 60% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 71% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | 3 | 27 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 26 | 792 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 7 | 11 | 739 | 8338 |
| Unique markets | 7 | 10 | 653 | 3743 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 67% | 87% | 67% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.038 | 0.038 | 0.052 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.162 | 0.988 | 0.231 | 0.109 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 1% | 21% | 14% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 242.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 16.1 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.36 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 49% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 31% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.2104 | 0.1525 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1774 | 0.0338 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.737 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-4.03k | $1.63k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | 154.5% | 16.3% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0068 | -0.0068 | -0.0068 | -0.0068 |
| Alpha ($) | $-4.93k | $-4.93k | $-4.93k | $-4.93k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -57.2% | -57.2% | -57.2% | -57.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.046 | -0.046 | -0.046 | -0.046 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0010 | -0.0010 | -0.0010 | -0.0010 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 74.2%
- Tilted Gambler: 70.0%
- Longshot Hunter: 44.9%
- News Sniper: 34.9%
- Contrarian Fader: 28.1%
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | 7.00 | 11.00 | 739.00 | 8338.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -91.20 | -9.85 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $1.25M | 20% | 410 |
| Culture | $205k | 15% | 327 |
| Global Elections | $8.49k | 18% | 83 |
| Parent For Derivative | $5.86k | 50% | 12 |
| fomc | $4.35k | 53% | 17 |
| nyc | $3.26k | 42% | 19 |
| United States | $1.6k | 33% | 72 |
| Politics | $750 | 10% | 388 |
| Executive Actions | $-720 | 0% | 1 |
| FDV | $713 | 17% | 12 |
| Bitcoin | $357 | 20% | 256 |
| MLB | $250 | 100% | 2 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x5cdbb002… | $1.76M | $2.8M | 63.0% |
| 0xe87b10af… | $376k | $338k | 111.2% |
| 0xd7db9898… | $-28.1k | $1.77M | -1.6% |
| 0xd6c49a94… | $20.5k | $235k | 8.7% |
| 0x6e9fda00… | $-18.6k | $22k | -84.5% |
| 0x46fb01da… | $-18.6k | $22k | -84.5% |
| 0x1cfde498… | $-18.6k | $22k | -84.6% |
| 0x039b4882… | $-18.6k | $18.6k | -100.0% |
| 0x08c8fffc… | $-18.5k | $17k | -108.6% |
| 0x2993e8c1… | $-18.5k | $109k | -17.0% |
| 0x6fa38b11… | $-18.5k | $23.7k | -77.8% |
| 0x22fa7126… | $-18.4k | $84.4k | -21.8% |
| 0x6541a876… | $-18.1k | $77.3k | -23.4% |
| 0x803519b9… | $-14.8k | $14.8k | -100.0% |
| 0xee27169d… | $-14.8k | $14.8k | -100.0% |