0xcbba…dbff

0xcbba64cddd05171925ffd05d8f8abd38c83fdbff

Contrarian FaderGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Contrarian Fader because fills lean against recent price moves and it averages down.

Contrarian score is -0.31 (negative = buying against recent moves) with average-down share 56%.

Holds stretch longer (median 9.2 hours) while waiting for reversion.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 13:31:30 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$571k

Open PnL

$-7.35k

Max drawdown

$136k

Underwater days

346

Equity curve

Board ranks

sharpe:30d

#37new

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$3.13k	N/A	$60.7k	$572k
Realized PnL	$653k	$-573k	$737k	$743k
Win rate	42%	33%	37%	43%
ROI	19%	-8%	8%	6%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.481	0.860	0.103
Markets	30	135	181	181
Best day	$2.64k	$9.78k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	2.23	0.79	1.24	1.20
Mean trade PnL	$12.6k	$-1.85k	$1.93k	$405
Median trade PnL	$-85	$-149	$-149	$-4
Payoff ratio	3.03	1.59	2.14	1.56
Largest win	$1.03M	$1.03M	$1.03M	$1.03M
Largest loss	$-438k	$-438k	$-438k	$-438k
Expectancy	$12.6k

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$3.97k	$9.92k	$8.74k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.694	3.142	0.077
Calmar	3.937	3.937	3.937	3.937
Drawdown duration (days)	65.0	65.0	65.0	65.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	86%	30%	22%	18%
Concentration top-5	93%	44%	43%	35%
Concentration top-10	95%	54%	55%	46%
Max win streak	3	10	10	21
Max loss streak	7	52	52	52

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	2820	18670	28432	28432
Unique markets	30	135	181	181
Active days ratio	200%	114%	107%	107%
Avg entry price	0.082	0.071	0.115	0.115
Portfolio HHI	0.102	0.041	0.029	0.029
Maker share (notional)	100%	100%	100%	100%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	5.3	15.5	13.6	13.6
Holding time median (h)	6.4	11.7	9.2	9.2
Max concurrent	30	134	179	179
Disposition ratio	0.35	0.59	0.80	0.80
Add-to-winner share	49%	41%	40%	40%
Average-down share	43%	55%	56%	56%
Tilt ratio	0.26

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	100%	100%	98%	98%
Brier (weighted)	0.2368	0.1419	0.1415	0.1420
Brier (unweighted)	0.0561	0.0556	0.0746	0.0979
Entry timing mean	0.855	0.779	0.820	0.820
Exit quality ($)	$31.8k	$9.95k	$9.71k	$2.72k
Exit quality ROI gap	48.6%	27.1%	15.9%	12.5%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0313	-0.0313	-0.0313	-0.0313
Alpha ($)	$239	$239	$239	$239
Alpha ROI gap	-18.5%	-18.5%	-18.5%	-18.5%
Contrarian score	-0.310	-0.310	-0.310	-0.310
Post-fill drift	-0.0093	-0.0093	-0.0093	-0.0093
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Contrarian Fader: 56.8%
Scalper: 41.3%
News Sniper: 40.2%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.0%
Longshot Hunter: 33.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xea3a43cfe4… entry 0.059 timing 0.14
0xe62e8efd3d… entry 0.059 timing 0.75
0x0ff5adea9f… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0xf86980b093… entry 0.059 timing 0.23
0x46702f5512… entry 0.059 timing 0.68
0x5f510f8221… entry 0.059 timing 0.53
0xd5bfdea401… entry 0.059 timing 0.59
0xc69d4782ad… entry 0.059 timing 0.52
0xf6da240f26… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x93b49c1683… entry 0.059 timing 0.61
0xae043fa686… entry 0.059 timing 0.39
0x052e0cd18e… entry 0.008 timing 0.44
0x2d7631c0ab… entry 0.059 timing 0.54
0xecacbec425… entry 0.008 timing 0.42
0x2db2daa3ef… entry 0.008 timing 0.43
0x28f26198c9… entry 0.059 timing 0.83
0x12e12585c2… entry 0.059 timing 0.84
0x7fa9542b7c… entry 0.008 timing 0.90
0xd05f063042… entry 0.008 timing 0.55

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0xcbba…dbff

0xcbba64cddd05171925ffd05d8f8abd38c83fdbff

This wallet is categorized as a Contrarian Fader because fills lean against recent price moves and it averages down.

Contrarian score is -0.31 (negative = buying against recent moves) with average-down share 56%.

Holds stretch longer (median 9.2 hours) while waiting for reversion.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$3.13k

N/A

$60.7k

$572k

Realized PnL

$653k

$-573k

$737k

$743k

Win rate

42%

33%

37%

43%

ROI

19%

-8%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.481

0.860

0.103

Markets

135

181

Best day

$2.64k

$9.78k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

2.23

0.79

1.24

1.20

Mean trade PnL

$12.6k

$-1.85k

$1.93k

$405

Median trade PnL

$-85

$-149

$-4

Payoff ratio

3.03

1.59

2.14

1.56

Largest win

$1.03M

Largest loss

$-438k

Expectancy

$12.6k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$3.97k

$9.92k

$8.74k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.694

3.142

0.077

Calmar

3.937

Drawdown duration (days)

65.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

86%

30%

22%

18%

Concentration top-5

93%

44%

43%

35%

Concentration top-10

95%

54%

55%

46%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

2820

18670

28432

Unique markets

135

181

Active days ratio

200%

114%

107%

Avg entry price

0.082

0.071

0.115

Portfolio HHI

0.102

0.041

0.029

Maker share (notional)

100%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

5.3

15.5

13.6

Holding time median (h)

6.4

11.7

9.2

Max concurrent

134

179

Disposition ratio

0.35

0.59

0.80

Add-to-winner share

49%

41%

40%

Average-down share

43%

55%

56%

Tilt ratio

0.26

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

100%

98%

Brier (weighted)

0.2368

0.1419

0.1415

0.1420

Brier (unweighted)

0.0561

0.0556

0.0746

0.0979

Entry timing mean

0.855

0.779

0.820

Exit quality ($)

$31.8k

$9.95k

$9.71k

$2.72k

Exit quality ROI gap

48.6%

27.1%

15.9%

12.5%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0313

Alpha ($)

$239

Alpha ROI gap

-18.5%

Contrarian score

-0.310

Post-fill drift

-0.0093

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.2

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Contrarian Fader: 56.8%

Scalper: 41.3%

News Sniper: 40.2%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.0%

Longshot Hunter: 33.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xea3a43cfe4… entry 0.059 timing 0.14
0xe62e8efd3d… entry 0.059 timing 0.75
0x0ff5adea9f… entry 0.059 timing 0.85
0xf86980b093… entry 0.059 timing 0.23
0x46702f5512… entry 0.059 timing 0.68
0x5f510f8221… entry 0.059 timing 0.53
0xd5bfdea401… entry 0.059 timing 0.59
0xc69d4782ad… entry 0.059 timing 0.52
0xf6da240f26… entry 0.059 timing 0.90
0x93b49c1683… entry 0.059 timing 0.61
0xae043fa686… entry 0.059 timing 0.39
0x052e0cd18e… entry 0.008 timing 0.44
0x2d7631c0ab… entry 0.059 timing 0.54
0xecacbec425… entry 0.008 timing 0.42
0x2db2daa3ef… entry 0.008 timing 0.43
0x28f26198c9… entry 0.059 timing 0.83
0x12e12585c2… entry 0.059 timing 0.84
0x7fa9542b7c… entry 0.008 timing 0.90
0xd05f063042… entry 0.008 timing 0.55

Category	PnL (all)	Win rate	n
Sports	$638k	44%	599
Eurovision	$43.7k	39%	44
Boxing	$34.7k	50%	8
Soccer	$11.4k	29%	68
Wimbledon	$11.2k	21%	96
NCAA	$6.7k	29%	83
FDV	$-4.59k	53%	15
box office	$-4.38k	29%	7
French Election	$3.45k	79%	38
President	$2.02k	66%	38
Fed Rates	$-1.4k	38%	26
Esports	$-1.37k	50%	2

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x9b6fef24…	$594k	$2.83M	21.0%
0x7976b8db…	$481k	$615k	78.3%
0x0c4cd205…	$341k	$80.5k	423.6%
0x375409bc…	$331k	$75.9k	435.5%
0x4f3421fb…	$249k	$69.5k	359.2%
0xb4961db4…	$205k	$341k	60.2%
0xb81d9a63…	$193k	$51.1k	377.0%
0x30d55d81…	$192k	$64k	300.8%
0xb41303fe…	$-179k	$320k	-56.0%
0x1595b481…	$119k	$82.2k	145.2%
0x044863f5…	$-108k	$122k	-88.7%
0x9be56371…	$90.2k	$67.6k	133.5%
0x8ea0b72b…	$84k	$95.2k	88.2%
0x826887e3…	$-81.5k	$122k	-67.0%
0x74da675b…	$-73k	$1.1k	-6623.4%

0xcbba…dbff

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xcbba…dbff

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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Day of week (UTC)

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