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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0xcae6…4f85 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0xcae6…4f85 0X
0xcae6…4f85 0xcae693bcf9696a2ebf0a62de767719b45f354f85
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 24569 with median hold 0.2 hours, maker share only 26%.
Capital velocity 0.9 and held-to-resolution 72% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:29:02 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A N/A $60.3k $433k Realized PnL $6.02k $16.9k $69.3k $439k Win rate 78% 75% 75% 75% ROI 8% 6% 6% 6% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.977 0.791 0.710 Markets 5 35 106 482 Best day $0 $4.94k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 11.00 6.40 6.32 3.54 Mean trade PnL $669 $331 $428 $250 Median trade PnL $359 $156 $229 $115 Payoff ratio 3.14 2.19 2.07 1.18 Largest win $3.2k $3.2k $4.76k $7.39k Largest loss $-530 $-1.02k $-3.03k $-13.1k Expectancy $669
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $2.01k $2.78k $2.78k Sortino (daily) N/A N/A 2.568 0.461 Calmar 44.523 44.523 44.523 44.523 Drawdown duration (days) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 49% 15% 5% 2% Concentration top-5 100% 46% 20% 6% Concentration top-10 100% 69% 33% 9% Max win streak 3 8 9 23 Max loss streak 1 2 2 5
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 252 1324 4141 24569 Unique markets 5 35 106 482 Active days ratio 200% 100% 82% 79% Avg entry price 0.742 0.704 0.721 0.719 Portfolio HHI 0.234 0.043 0.013 0.003 Maker share (notional) 17% 25% 24% 26% Two-sided share N/A
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 0.1 1.1 0.8 1.5 Holding time median (h) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 Max concurrent 4 26 81 395 Disposition ratio 0.56 0.95 0.86 0.90 Add-to-winner share 90% 53% 64% 67% Average-down share 10% 47% 35% 29% Tilt ratio 1.02
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 25% 65% 61% 72% Brier (weighted) 0.4474 0.1101 0.0809 0.0850 Brier (unweighted) 0.3676 0.1403 0.1321 0.1334 Entry timing mean 0.839 0.734 0.854 0.950 Exit quality ($) $5.21k $437 $468 $371 Exit quality ROI gap 33.1% 23.6% 32.6% 32.8%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 0.0161 Alpha ($) $3.25k $3.25k $3.25k $3.25k Alpha ROI gap 108.3% 108.3% 108.3% 108.3% Contrarian score 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 Post-fill drift -0.0197 -0.0197 -0.0197 -0.0197 Post-fill candles (mean) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 69.3% News Sniper: 58.5% Favorite Grinder: 56.4% Tilted Gambler: 51.6% Conviction Holder: 32.0% Worst day $0 $0 $-718 $-9.48k
0.60–0.90 100% 77% 75% 77% 42%
Spread capture N/A 0.0492 N/A 0.0233
Inventory turnover 252.00 1324.00 4141.00 24569.00
Capital velocity 1.65 1.89 1.86 0.95
Avg ticket $473 $420 $494 $277
Median ticket $67 $83 $91 $12
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -324.70 -209.87
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x2427a92a… $-13.1k $21.3k -61.3% 0x709da402… $-10.1k $31.1k -32.5% 0x10debd18… $-8.43k $22.3k -37.8% 0xb29696a6… $7.4k $13.9k 53.1% 0x70e98633… $6.66k $39k 17.1% 0xc495c737… $-5.17k $7.33k -70.6% 0xfbf2919e… $4.91k $19k 25.8% 0xbcec2dfc… $4.83k $20.6k 23.4% 0x38c50142… $4.79k $63 7631.6% 0x58154442… $-4.45k $14.3k -31.2% 0x5a46c8df… $4.39k $4.41k 99.7% 0xe6c69226… $4.12k $14.7k 28.0% 0xbd6ef1f7… $3.95k $19.7k 20.1% 0x2d070f10… $-3.82k $18.7k -20.4% 0xd031390e… $-3.8k $18.1k -20.9%
0x2342879504… entry 0.168
0xc65a153c7a… entry 0.280
0x7a37481abb… entry 0.172
0x50a3a3c9ed… entry 0.139
0x1dbe9fcd53… entry 0.130
0x34ba852f9a… entry 0.152
0xb15bc48944… entry 0.195
0x1d6d4f714e… entry 0.195
0xb07809dbbe… entry 0.200
0x37a2a8f431… entry 0.020
0x43d148dca6… entry 0.131
0x6738082728… entry 0.190
0x5e35f6ddb4… entry 0.133
0xac396f43ad… entry 0.170
0x4f0602d7bb… entry 0.260
0x2261c5b626… entry 0.133
0xe881d03390… entry 0.282
0x788c6b3254… entry 0.129
0xf0f6f25c4b… entry 0.107
0xcaed5a50ec… entry 0.020
0xf97bfdd5d8… entry 0.184
0x93ce7036f9… entry 0.140
0x70ebdd77e4… entry 0.261
0x5d4a8afe2b… entry 0.110
0x69ebc64228… entry 0.014
0x7e51ee7810… entry 0.025
0xc5627f67e7… entry 0.240
0xc25991f5a3… entry 0.060
0x38c5014215… entry 0.013
0xe67d04bb3a… entry 0.100
0x4722ae07fa… entry 0.215
0x519fe370ab… entry 0.240
0xdf920fbb04… entry 0.200
0xaafa622c31… entry 0.233