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0xc97485a44146b5db0b8b121358f57cf297cdb33b
Secondary: Tilted Gambler
This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.
Weekly activity shows 9 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.94 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).
Holds stay short (median 0.8 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.
A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:28:01 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $37.8k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $52.7k | $112k | $562k | $3.02M |
| Win rate | 100% | 75% | 90% | 85% |
| ROI | 189% | 119% | 112% | 71% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.185 | -0.111 | 0.082 |
| Markets | 5 | 18 | 165 | 1186 |
| Best day | $-487 | $52.9k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 13.43 | 58.84 | 5.71 |
| Mean trade PnL | $26.4k | $13.9k | $9.52k | $4.91k |
| Median trade PnL | $26.4k | $4.1k | $4.97k | $3.35k |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 4.48 | 6.66 | 0.97 |
| Largest win | $49.8k | $49.8k | $49.8k | $81k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-8.98k | $-8.98k | $-35.7k |
| Expectancy | $26.4k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $29.3k | $28.3k | $20.1k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.175 | -0.105 | 0.086 |
| Calmar | 2.504 | 2.504 | 2.504 | 2.504 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 95% | 38% | 9% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 98% | 36% | 7% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 54% | 12% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 3 | 21 | 102 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 1 | 1 | 60 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 141 | 1359 | 4727 | 15318 |
| Unique markets | 5 | 18 | 165 | 1186 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 97% | 68% |
| Avg entry price | 0.371 | 0.361 | 0.432 | 0.464 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.425 | 0.153 | 0.017 | 0.003 |
| Maker share (notional) | 64% | 94% | 58% | 40% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 24.4 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Max concurrent | 3 | 4 | 95 | 827 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 100% | 31% | 27% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 0% | 32% | 30% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 25% | 58% | 69% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.4272 | 0.3090 | 0.2695 | 0.2456 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.3814 | 0.3124 | 0.3125 | 0.2701 |
| Entry timing mean | 1.000 | 0.592 | 0.949 | 0.937 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $-33 | $-246 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -0.0% | -3.0% | -1.7% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0527 | -0.0527 | -0.0527 | -0.0527 |
| Alpha ($) | $10 | $10 | $10 | $10 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Contrarian score | 0.429 | 0.429 | 0.429 | 0.429 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0109 | -0.0109 | -0.0109 | -0.0109 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Post-fill observations | 85 |
Joint probability 5.62e-13; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $58k |
| $77.6k |
| Worst day | $-487 | $-43.8k | $-82.6k | $-82.6k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $13.9k |
| $9.52k |
| $4.91k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 100% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 60% | 83% | 76% | 21% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 100% | 100% | 96% | 88% | 50% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 100% | 91% | 90% | 29% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | 0% |
| 6% |
| 2% |
| 2% |
| Spread capture | -0.1915 | -0.0834 | 0.0085 | 0.0300 |
| Inventory turnover | 141.00 | 1359.00 | 4727.00 | 15318.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.70 | 1.91 | 2.34 | 1.78 |
| Avg ticket | $137 | $132 | $247 | $496 |
| Median ticket | $5 | $13 | $15 | $12 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -81.60 | 30.96 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 30.65 |
| 7.94 |
| 3.26 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $2.93M | 86% | 560 |
| Esports | $71.9k | 87% | 38 |
| Tennis | $20.3k | 86% | 7 |
| Soccer | $-2.18k | 50% | 2 |
| Politics | $-114 | 0% | 1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | $19 | 100% | 1 |
| Reality TV | $17 | 100% | 1 |
| NBA | $-2 | 0% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa17b3bd2… | $81k | $41.1k | 196.7% |
| 0x053f9573… | $58k | $37.2k | 156.0% |
| 0xaf82c474… | $57.1k | $51.6k | 110.6% |
| 0xd793740e… | $51.3k | $36.5k | 140.4% |
| 0xaeec5397… | $49.8k | $25.7k | 194.1% |
| 0xe6ef89a8… | $49.8k | $33.2k | 150.0% |
| 0x4b4fbe43… | $48k | $27.1k | 177.2% |
| 0x94a2b2a1… | $45.1k | $59.8k | 75.4% |
| 0x3f544b93… | $44.2k | $32.1k | 137.9% |
| 0xb7dc069e… | $42.4k | $20.4k | 207.9% |
| 0xaea9c4c8… | $39.6k | $66.6k | 59.5% |
| 0x9c183f63… | $37.5k | $39.7k | 94.3% |
| 0x998d69f8… | $36.2k | $17.9k | 203.0% |
| 0x29880c68… | $-35.7k | $36k | -99.2% |
| 0x1e1c16b2… | $-35.3k | $35.3k | -100.0% |
| 85 |
| 85 |
| 85 |