0xc902…cd14

0xc90240c20fa7f94672d77b8cad838c05b9e0cd14

Tilted GamblerGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 2.23 and disposition ratio 9.72, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 72.1), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 13:27:57 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$82.8k

Open PnL

$-18k

Max drawdown

$15.4k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	$58.1k	N/A
Realized PnL	$0	$0	$54.6k	$84k
Win rate	N/A	N/A	30%	46%
ROI	N/A	N/A	10%	11%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	-1.117	0.227	0.126
Markets	0	0	66	193
Best day	$-75	$-56

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	N/A	1.23	1.32
Mean trade PnL	N/A	N/A	$530	$406
Median trade PnL	N/A	N/A	$-443	$-6
Payoff ratio	N/A	N/A	2.87	1.53
Largest win	N/A	N/A	$65.9k	$65.9k
Largest loss	N/A	N/A	$-30.1k	$-30.1k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$235	$8.97k	$4.67k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	-0.713	0.852	0.312
Calmar	5.366	5.366	5.366	5.366
Drawdown duration (days)	57.0	57.0	57.0	57.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	N/A	12%	11%
Concentration top-5	N/A	N/A	56%	48%
Concentration top-10	N/A	N/A	71%	64%
Max win streak	N/A	N/A	9	17
Max loss streak	N/A	N/A	22	22

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	0	0	2632	4318
Unique markets	0	0	66	193
Active days ratio	N/A	N/A	68%	64%
Avg entry price	N/A	N/A	0.095	0.241
Portfolio HHI	N/A	N/A	0.042	0.024
Maker share (notional)	N/A	N/A	88%	56%
Two-sided share	N/A

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	N/A	8.9	67.2
Holding time median (h)	N/A	N/A	6.2	6.8
Max concurrent	N/A	N/A	51	150
Disposition ratio	N/A	N/A	6.84	9.72
Add-to-winner share	N/A	N/A	40%	45%
Average-down share	N/A	N/A	52%	48%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	N/A	70%	76%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	N/A	0.1630	0.1480
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	N/A	0.1161	0.1158
Entry timing mean	N/A	N/A	0.946	0.865
Exit quality ($)	N/A	N/A	$489	$61
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	N/A	19.7%	13.0%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0590	0.0590	0.0590	0.0590
Alpha ($)	$55	$55	$55	$55
Alpha ROI gap	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Contrarian score	0.193	0.193	0.193	0.193
Post-fill drift	-0.0227	-0.0227	-0.0227	-0.0227
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations	502

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 84.7%
Scalper: 49.3%
News Sniper: 46.2%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 30.5%
Conviction Holder: 28.1%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.24e-16; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x513e8dc3ef… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xd3f900f6da… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x51a268327d… entry 0.059
0xdc524cd704… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xfe5b0dfe62… entry 0.059 timing 1.00
0x8839150703… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x622e76a56d… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x81326bc193… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x85a542eb7c… entry 0.059
0x3088733a3d… entry 0.129 timing 0.94
0xf7983f3959… entry 0.029

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0xc902…cd14

0xc90240c20fa7f94672d77b8cad838c05b9e0cd14

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 2.23 and disposition ratio 9.72, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 72.1), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$58.1k

N/A

Realized PnL

$54.6k

$84k

Win rate

N/A

30%

46%

ROI

N/A

10%

11%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

-1.117

0.227

0.126

Markets

193

Best day

$-75

$-56

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

1.23

1.32

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$530

$406

Median trade PnL

N/A

$-443

$-6

Payoff ratio

N/A

2.87

1.53

Largest win

N/A

$65.9k

Largest loss

N/A

$-30.1k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$235

$8.97k

$4.67k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

-0.713

0.852

0.312

Calmar

5.366

Drawdown duration (days)

57.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

12%

11%

Concentration top-5

N/A

56%

48%

Concentration top-10

N/A

71%

64%

Max win streak

N/A

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

2632

4318

Unique markets

193

Active days ratio

N/A

68%

64%

Avg entry price

N/A

0.095

0.241

Portfolio HHI

N/A

0.042

0.024

Maker share (notional)

N/A

88%

56%

Two-sided share

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

8.9

67.2

Holding time median (h)

N/A

6.2

6.8

Max concurrent

N/A

150

Disposition ratio

N/A

6.84

9.72

Add-to-winner share

N/A

40%

45%

Average-down share

N/A

52%

48%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

70%

76%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.1630

0.1480

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.1161

0.1158

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.946

0.865

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$489

$61

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

19.7%

13.0%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0590

Alpha ($)

$55

Alpha ROI gap

0.6%

Contrarian score

0.193

Post-fill drift

-0.0227

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

502

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 84.7%

Scalper: 49.3%

News Sniper: 46.2%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 30.5%

Conviction Holder: 28.1%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 1.24e-16; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x513e8dc3ef… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xd3f900f6da… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x51a268327d… entry 0.059
0xdc524cd704… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0xfe5b0dfe62… entry 0.059 timing 1.00
0x8839150703… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x622e76a56d… entry 0.059 timing 0.98
0x81326bc193… entry 0.059 timing 0.99
0x85a542eb7c… entry 0.059
0x3088733a3d… entry 0.129 timing 0.94
0xf7983f3959… entry 0.029

Sports	$56.3k	33%	72
Geopolitics	$14.5k	57%	14
Iran Ceasefire	$11.9k	100%	1
Middle East	$-10.9k	25%	4
Iran	$6.7k	48%	25
Politics	$4.6k	58%	26
SPX	$-4.06k	50%	2
Reza Pahlavi	$2.82k	50%	2
transit	$-2.78k	0%	1
Tariffs	$2.62k	100%	1
NYMEX Crude Oil Futures	$2.41k	40%	5
Economy	$-2.31k	20%	5

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x85a542eb…	$65.9k	$4.12k	1600.0%
0x51a26832…	$56.5k	$3.53k	1600.0%
0xfe5b0dfe…	$55.6k	$3.53k	1574.6%
0xa70fc369…	$11.9k	$22.7k	52.3%
0xc0be7b1f…	$-10.8k	$19.1k	-56.6%
0x1f5cd4d1…	$-9.6k	$9.6k	-100.0%
0x80059ff4…	$8.44k	$10.3k	81.7%
0x5f4be725…	$-7.5k	$7.5k	-100.0%
0x513e8dc3…	$4.87k	$3.53k	138.0%
0xafc28386…	$-4.35k	$4.35k	-100.0%
0x68eb3012…	$-4.12k	$4.12k	-100.0%
0x30d3462f…	$-4.12k	$4.12k	-100.0%
0x9c38d35a…	$-4.12k	$4.12k	-100.0%
0x37b868b0…	$-4.12k	$4.12k	-100.0%
0x708c4ba5…	$-4.12k	$4.12k	-100.0%

0xc902…cd14

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xc902…cd14

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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Day of week (UTC)

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