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0xc851…cd2a
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a
Secondary: Conviction Holder
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.54 of market life) and 78% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (6000.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Conviction Holder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:25:46 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$555k
Open PnL
$-347k
Max drawdown
$299k
Underwater days
140
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $555k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $10.2k | $20.8k | $935k |
| Win rate | N/A | 100% | 75% | 56% |
| ROI | N/A | 60% | 37% | 8% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.378 | -0.280 | 0.067 |
| Markets | 0 | 3 | 16 | 115 |
| Best day | $575 | $14.6k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 37.77 | 1.85 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $10.2k | $2.59k | $1.28k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $10.2k | $1.49k | $29 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 12.59 | 1.47 |
| Largest win | N/A | $10.2k | $10.2k | $140k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-561 | $-101k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $6.01k | $16k | $18.5k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.525 | -0.230 | 0.081 |
| Calmar | 1.857 | 1.857 | 1.857 | 1.857 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 139.5 | 139.5 | 139.5 | 139.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 100% | 47% | 5% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 99% | 20% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 32% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 25 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 44 | 680 | 6000 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 3 | 16 | 115 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | 80% | 75% | 63% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.388 | 0.265 | 0.484 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | 0.357 | 0.147 | 0.043 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | 44% | 34% | 57% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 7.0 | 70.1 | 143.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 9.3 | 3.3 | 44.6 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 3 | 16 | 93 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 39% | 97% | 87% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 0% | 3% | 13% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 78% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.2671 | 0.0793 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.2978 | 0.1167 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.586 | 0.506 | 0.539 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-456 | $524 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -39.9% | 18.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0225 | 0.0225 | 0.0225 | 0.0225 |
| Alpha ($) | $-16k | $-16k | $-16k | $-16k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -46.4% | -46.4% | -46.4% | -46.4% |
| Contrarian score | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.295 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0106 | -0.0106 | -0.0106 | -0.0106 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 43.1%
- Conviction Holder: 42.0%
- Scalper: 40.1%
- Favorite Grinder: 36.8%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 4.20e-66; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xd7d6bcbc6c… entry 0.260 timing 0.02
- 0x0e4a0c937b… entry 0.282 timing 0.53
- 0x36b1d9ba58… entry 0.200
- 0xd1047755d3… entry 0.237 timing 0.17
- 0xbb8bfdef90… entry 0.003
- 0xf005ddced6… entry 0.060
- 0x20621b51a5… entry 0.291
- 0x04decd4561… entry 0.210
- 0x4ade9165c4… entry 0.190
- 0x58f4542341… entry 0.259
- 0x777c48a36a… entry 0.100
- 0x3f6280821a… entry 0.062
- 0xe2d0a0c095… entry 0.093
- 0x1c9885eb9b… entry 0.017
- 0x3e796b4dad… entry 0.017
- 0x915501c89f… entry 0.039
- 0xea17b1284d… entry 0.017
- 0x9215b2e1e6… entry 0.229
- 0xa239a4f5be… entry 0.201
- 0x08c8fffc2f… entry 0.166