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0xc658…b784
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
85% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (71%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.54).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:24:28 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$108k
Open PnL
$-959k
Max drawdown
$1.39M
Underwater days
138
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $54.6k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $12.5k | $178k | $1.13M |
| Win rate | N/A | 100% | 100% | 71% |
| ROI | N/A | 9% | 25% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.193 | -0.025 | 0.060 |
| Markets | 0 | 4 | 11 | 745 |
| Best day | $-934 | $11.8k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.28 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $4.15k | $22.2k | $1.37k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $3.46k | $2.84k | $130 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.54 |
| Largest win | N/A | $8.78k | $111k | $389k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-1.1M |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.42k | $19.8k | $56.9k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.202 | -0.044 | 0.063 |
| Calmar | 1.461 | 1.461 | 1.461 | 1.461 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 70% | 63% | 12% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 98% | 32% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 45% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 11 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 22 | 65 | 25727 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 4 | 11 | 745 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | 133% | 52% | 68% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.281 | 0.415 | 0.673 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | 0.446 | 0.235 | 0.045 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | 19% | 10% | 51% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 21.0 | 14.3 | 223.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 21.0 | 3.4 | 27.8 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 3 | 11 | 555 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 5.99 | 2.08 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 25% | 26% | 63% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 0% | 22% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 74% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0555 | 0.0219 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1440 | 0.0843 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.600 | 0.573 | 0.618 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-1.03k | $898 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -0.3% | 72.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.1603 | -0.1603 | -0.1603 | -0.1603 |
| Alpha ($) | $-92 | $-92 | $-92 | $-92 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -9.9% | -9.9% | -9.9% | -9.9% |
| Contrarian score | -0.053 | -0.053 | -0.053 | -0.053 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0049 | -0.0049 | -0.0049 | -0.0049 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 73.8%
- Tilted Gambler: 64.7%
- Scalper: 48.4%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 35.3%
- Conviction Holder: 32.9%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 6.66e-15; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xe546672750… entry 0.239 timing 0.47
- 0xa93b28a638… entry 0.278 timing 0.64
- 0x68beecc857… entry 0.190 timing 0.69
- 0x38837354d6… entry 0.258 timing 0.95
- 0xd25ff3223a… entry 0.210 timing 0.20
- 0xbf1e237a1e… entry 0.004 timing 0.67
- 0xb3ea135352… entry 0.128 timing 0.78
- 0x7c823d6f91… entry 0.278 timing 0.00
- 0x6b394949ce… entry 0.090
- 0xeaa0ba1f37… entry 0.204 timing 0.82
- 0xad430c0923… entry 0.229 timing 0.21
- 0xc77accea98… entry 0.072 timing 0.06
- 0xe8267c25cd… entry 0.220 timing 0.05
- 0x8bb7b51880… entry 0.216
- 0x2975406109… entry 0.038 timing 0.61