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0xc3cd…816c · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0xc3cd…816c
0xc3cd1d612bbf9fbf80da5a9bff0b0470cb46816c
Secondary: Tilted Gambler
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
57% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (54%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (1.02).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:26:30 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $48.1k | $81.5k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $16.8k | $22.8k | $56.7k | $135k |
| Win rate | 60% | 43% | 45% | 54% |
| ROI | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 1.075 | 0.613 | 0.194 |
| Markets | 146 | 497 | 497 | 497 |
| Best day | $-4.06k | $14.3k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 3.48 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.20 |
| Mean trade PnL | $175 | $31 | $32 | $17 |
| Median trade PnL | $3 | $-5 | $-2 | $0 |
| Payoff ratio | 2.28 | 1.59 | 1.58 | 1.02 |
| Largest win | $8.03k | $19.1k | $19.1k | $26.5k |
| Largest loss | $-1.15k | $-19k | $-19k | $-26.3k |
| Expectancy | $175 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $6.33k | $4.63k | $1.77k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.233 | 0.233 | 0.911 | 0.196 |
| Calmar | 15.969 | 15.969 | 15.969 | 15.969 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% |
| Concentration top-5 | 63% | 33% | 21% | 14% |
| Concentration top-10 | 75% | 45% | 30% | 21% |
| Max win streak | 5 | 12 | 12 | 25 |
| Max loss streak | 5 | 37 | 37 | 71 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 823 | 5998 | 5998 | 5998 |
| Unique markets | 146 | 497 | 497 | 497 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.613 | 0.588 | 0.588 | 0.588 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.067 | 0.026 | 0.026 | 0.026 |
| Maker share (notional) | 98% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| Two-sided share | 5% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 3.9 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | 2.4 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Max concurrent | 87 | 322 | 322 | 322 |
| Disposition ratio | 4.69 | 2.32 | 2.32 | 2.32 |
| Add-to-winner share | 59% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Average-down share | 19% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.22 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0075 | 0.0288 | 0.0451 | 0.0634 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0548 | 0.0258 | 0.0451 | 0.0705 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.759 | 0.650 | 0.650 | 0.650 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-155 | $93 | $34 | $-20 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 5.9% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 60.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0484 | 0.0484 | 0.0484 | 0.0484 |
| Alpha ($) | $-4 | $-4 | $-4 | $-4 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| Contrarian score | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.004 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0032 | -0.0032 | -0.0032 | -0.0032 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 47.2%
- Tilted Gambler: 43.2%
- Scalper: 41.6%
- News Sniper: 31.9%
- Contrarian Fader: 30.9%
| Worst day | $-4.06k | $-4.06k | $-4.54k | $-12.8k |
| Spread capture | -0.0066 | -0.0041 | -0.0041 | -0.0041 |
| Inventory turnover | 823.00 | 5998.00 | 5998.00 | 5998.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| Median ticket | $20 | $17 | $17 | $17 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $15.4k | 53% | 1126 |
| Senate | $14.4k | 60% | 5 |
| Soccer | $9.02k | 62% | 381 |
| Group Futures | $8.82k | 47% | 96 |
| South Korea Elections | $7.73k | 17% | 18 |
| primary elections | $6.76k | 34% | 134 |
| Colombia Election | $6.64k | 22% | 45 |
| Politics | $5.62k | 49% | 663 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $5.46k | 43% | 293 |
| Parent For Derivative | $3.93k | 64% | 53 |
| Main Election | $3.57k | 39% | 84 |
| Tech | $3.36k | 45% | 164 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xfbe85201… | $11k | $7.99k | 137.8% |
| 0x713641f7… | $8.42k | $50.5k | 16.7% |
| 0x86bfb53a… | $8.03k | $17.3k | 46.5% |
| 0x1b1a75d6… | $7.42k | $966 | 768.4% |
| 0x307a1ed8… | $6.3k | $19k | 33.2% |
| 0xfa021d81… | $4.92k | $2.23k | 220.4% |
| 0xd2a8caba… | $4.35k | $1.91k | 227.4% |
| 0xb6b3d7a2… | $4.22k | $107k | 3.9% |
| 0x22e7b5e3… | $4.14k | $39k | 10.6% |
| 0xdd6df6bc… | $-3.92k | $14.7k | -26.7% |
| 0x0fb006e0… | $3.91k | $31.2k | 12.5% |
| 0x99ff023a… | $-3.83k | $11.8k | -32.5% |
| 0x9f8ef513… | $3.39k | $921 | 368.6% |
| 0xd3d83372… | $3.31k | $1.87k | 176.6% |
| 0x281565ca… | $2.99k | $988 | 302.6% |