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0xc23d…82c8
0xc23dc0eca9e1c2e293de8911b9ac254f0bcd82c8
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
68% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (89%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.40).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:19:10 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$196k
Open PnL
$-143k
Max drawdown
$9.8k
Underwater days
26
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.16k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $3.95k | $19k | $143k | $458k |
| Win rate | 100% | 87% | 83% | 89% |
| ROI | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.782 | 0.440 | 0.252 |
| Markets | 35 | 155 | 602 | 4264 |
| Best day | $1.92k | $4.2k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 2.41 | 2.48 | 3.18 |
| Mean trade PnL | $120 | $121 | $153 | $101 |
| Median trade PnL | $13 | $34 | $55 | $22 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.35 | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| Largest win | $759 | $4.19k | $4.83k | $4.83k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-2.83k | $-5.44k | $-5.44k |
| Expectancy | $120 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $1.74k | $5.19k | $2.59k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 1.342 | 0.628 | 0.343 |
| Calmar | 19.997 | 19.997 | 19.997 | 19.997 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 77% | 34% | 8% | 3% |
| Concentration top-10 | 95% | 52% | 14% | 6% |
| Max win streak | 33 | 61 | 61 | 126 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 204 | 1578 | 6411 | 32853 |
| Unique markets | 35 | 155 | 602 | 4264 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 83% | 74% |
| Avg entry price | 0.815 | 0.674 | 0.722 | 0.719 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.101 | 0.024 | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Maker share (notional) | 59% | 50% | 46% | 49% |
| Two-sided share | 3% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 18.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Max concurrent | 21 | 96 | 390 | 2666 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.14 | 0.93 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Add-to-winner share | 78% | 81% | 79% | 79% |
| Average-down share | 22% | 17% | 19% | 20% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 58% | 55% | 59% | 60% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0092 | 0.0632 | 0.0526 | 0.0491 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0354 | 0.0874 | 0.0837 | 0.0746 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.115 | 0.180 | 0.228 | 0.338 |
| Exit quality ($) | $36 | $-55 | $31 | $21 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 3.6% | -5.7% | -0.6% | 2.3% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0234 | -0.0234 | -0.0234 | -0.0234 |
| Alpha ($) | $-2 | $-2 | $-2 | $-2 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -26.7% | -26.7% | -26.7% | -26.7% |
| Contrarian score | -0.172 | -0.172 | -0.172 | -0.172 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0195 | 0.0195 | 0.0195 | 0.0195 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 86.3%
- Scalper: 62.7%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 48.6%
- Tilted Gambler: 37.7%
- News Sniper: 34.8%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 3.22e-23; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xa660781bf5… entry 0.260
- 0xb349b93a68… entry 0.210
- 0x15b32ebe7a… entry 0.212
- 0x568ca2eb02… entry 0.121
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- 0x5a43d0d7ce… entry 0.145
- 0x12cf531977… entry 0.060
- 0xce96b12a68… entry 0.270
- 0xe690620297… entry 0.281
- 0x9b11320167… entry 0.100
- 0xae802bc407… entry 0.125
- 0xe2219c74c0… entry 0.192
- 0xd131c2a9b0… entry 0.280
- 0x8b9d706051… entry 0.180
- 0x5e07c06167… entry 0.061
- 0x54e2f9825f… entry 0.260
- 0x242d2f3720… entry 0.295
- 0x7dee99b31f… entry 0.177
- 0xe4c9c88471… entry 0.156
- 0xf664ae2647… entry 0.190
- 0x4b6fc6cb6f… entry 0.177