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0xbacd…ab35 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0xbacd…ab35
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
Secondary: Favorite Grinder
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 1.62 and disposition ratio 2.59, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 171.5), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Favorite Grinder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:11:26 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $29.1k | $150k | $109k | ∞ |
| Win rate | 33% | 42% | 47% | 48% |
| ROI | 307% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.133 | -0.027 | 0.062 |
| Markets | 22 | 50 | 158 | 749 |
| Best day | $-52 | $18.9k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 68.03 | 2.40 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Mean trade PnL | $9.71k | $2.73k | $376 | $303 |
| Median trade PnL | $-36 | $-99 | $-5 | $-2 |
| Payoff ratio | 136.05 | 3.34 | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| Largest win | $29.6k | $189k | $203k | $677k |
| Largest loss | $-398 | $-55.6k | $-131k | $-483k |
| Expectancy | $9.71k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.99k | $16.8k | $45.2k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.056 | 0.366 | -0.032 | 0.056 |
| Calmar | 1.568 | 1.568 | 1.568 | 1.568 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 93.5 | 93.5 | 93.5 | 93.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 99% | 52% | 23% | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 87% | 60% | 10% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 95% | 72% | 16% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 37 | 261 | 2907 | 50175 |
| Unique markets | 22 | 50 | 158 | 749 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 94% |
| Avg entry price | 0.184 | 0.705 | 0.569 | 0.520 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.202 | 0.389 | 0.065 | 0.016 |
| Maker share (notional) | 68% | 28% | 34% | 42% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 4.0 | 24.3 | 52.7 | 93.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | 4.0 | 21.2 | 2.2 | 19.0 |
| Max concurrent | 5 | 13 | 63 | 413 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.00 | 21.38 | 2.59 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 0% | 76% | 62% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 100% | 22% | 36% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.37 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 10% | 36% | 47% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.2013 | 0.0423 | 0.0267 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.1185 | 0.0856 | 0.0500 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.718 | 0.723 | 0.691 | 0.558 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $79 | $44 | $243 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 63.1% | 393.4% | 3187.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0747 | 0.0747 | 0.0747 | 0.0747 |
| Alpha ($) | $31.6k | $31.6k | $31.6k | $31.6k |
| Alpha ROI gap | 44.3% | 44.3% | 44.3% | 44.3% |
| Contrarian score | 0.219 | 0.219 | 0.219 | 0.219 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0087 | -0.0087 | -0.0087 | -0.0087 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 58.2%
- Favorite Grinder: 53.9%
- Scalper: 52.4%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 26.3%
- News Sniper: 23.5%
| Worst day | $-52 | $-3.42k | $-51.6k | $-572k |
| Spread capture | -0.0103 | -0.0245 | -0.0503 | -0.0386 |
| Inventory turnover | 37.00 | 261.00 | 2907.00 | 50175.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.55 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Avg ticket | $140 | $345 | $260 | $265 |
| Median ticket | $27 | $26 | $16 | $19 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -203.10 | -501.92 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Politics | $709k | 49% | 1178 |
| Parent For Derivative | $579k | 46% | 175 |
| Gov Shutdown | $-476k | 43% | 63 |
| Military Strikes | $188k | 40% | 5 |
| Reza Pahlavi | $133k | 56% | 9 |
| nyc | $93.7k | 32% | 22 |
| Culture | $81.5k | 42% | 268 |
| Epstein | $80.3k | 54% | 72 |
| Business | $74k | 46% | 13 |
| Iran Ceasefire | $61.5k | 67% | 6 |
| Iran | $-59.6k | 51% | 340 |
| Geopolitics | $-55.3k | 48% | 264 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x61b66d02… | $714k | $446k | 160.1% |
| 0x077fc0c4… | $-467k | $522k | -89.3% |
| 0xceb6dfaa… | $-322k | $801k | -40.2% |
| 0xac9c6628… | $230k | $1.56M | 14.8% |
| 0xd86a8160… | $214k | $688k | 31.1% |
| 0x5db999fa… | $189k | $133k | 142.0% |
| 0x3488f31e… | $162k | $1.8M | 9.0% |
| 0x9d3f0226… | $-110k | $307k | -36.0% |
| 0x924a2942… | $-98.5k | $125k | -79.0% |
| 0xebddfcf7… | $96.1k | $751k | 12.8% |
| 0x9f41a3e4… | $93.5k | $261k | 35.9% |
| 0xbbc6689d… | $-90.1k | $633k | -14.2% |
| 0xd4bbf7f6… | $81.7k | $1.01M | 8.1% |
| 0x6c3d5fba… | $-78.5k | $158k | -49.6% |
| 0x9352c559… | $71.5k | $671k | 10.7% |