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0xb786…b18d · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xb786…b18d
0xb786b8b6335e77dfad19928313e97753039cb18d
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.30 of market life) and 59% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (60716.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:47:49 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $0 | ∞ |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | N/A | 56% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.219 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3929 |
| Best day | $0 | $0 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.28 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $189 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | N/A | $5 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.00 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | N/A | $114k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-92.7k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | N/A | $17.7k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.269 | 0.269 | 0.269 | 0.204 |
| Calmar | 9.524 | 9.524 | 9.524 | 9.524 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 276.5 | 276.5 | 276.5 | 276.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 22 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | N/A | 32 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60716 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3929 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 82% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.525 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.001 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 82% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.5 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2446 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.07 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 40% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1941 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.1912 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.299 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $-28 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.9% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0119 | 0.0119 | 0.0119 | 0.0119 |
| Alpha ($) | $528 | $528 | $528 | $528 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 23.9% | 23.9% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Contrarian score | -0.056 | -0.056 | -0.056 | -0.056 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0312 | -0.0312 | -0.0312 | -0.0312 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 51.4%
- Scalper: 49.2%
- Contrarian Fader: 33.6%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.7%
- News Sniper: 27.9%
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | -0.0373 |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60716.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.81 |
| Median ticket | N/A | N/A | N/A | $20 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | -101.28 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $1.85M | 57% | 9397 |
| uncategorized | $39.5k | 56% | 97 |
| NBA | $16.6k | 44% | 9 |
| Tennis | $-11.4k | 42% | 116 |
| NHL | $8.25k | 71% | 14 |
| Games | $-6.83k | 48% | 162 |
| Soccer | $-6.37k | 52% | 75 |
| NFL | $6.25k | 100% | 5 |
| Euro Basket | $-5.47k | 61% | 33 |
| EuroBasket | $5.3k | 75% | 4 |
| MLB | $-4.21k | 60% | 20 |
| NFL Playoffs | $1.81k | 75% | 4 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x0ea5139c… | $114k | $52.8k | 215.7% |
| 0xb36e2734… | $-89.5k | $108k | -82.9% |
| 0x6322e789… | $65.6k | $31.1k | 211.2% |
| 0x3709d87d… | $-64.7k | $64.7k | -100.0% |
| 0x3eb1b6c5… | $59.5k | $44.4k | 133.8% |
| 0x93289d18… | $59.1k | $8.21k | 719.5% |
| 0x8ff2d715… | $53.8k | $49.1k | 109.5% |
| 0x37f0e6a2… | $51.4k | $12.8k | 400.0% |
| 0x67940726… | $-41.6k | $42.7k | -97.5% |
| 0x88ed394d… | $39k | $16.9k | 231.2% |
| 0x823131ad… | $-38.8k | $101k | -38.5% |
| 0x817e832e… | $-36.8k | $36.8k | -100.0% |
| 0xacc5a65f… | $36.6k | $13.5k | 271.1% |
| 0x662eb094… | $36.2k | $15.4k | 235.2% |
| 0xfe06f711… | $35.7k | $10.1k | 352.9% |