0xb1ca…1705

0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705

Tilted GamblerGrade BStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

Secondary: Favorite Grinder

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 0.57 and disposition ratio 25.52, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 3731.7), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

A close second label is Favorite Grinder, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Updated 2026-07-19 12:48:08 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$643k

Open PnL

$26.2k

Max drawdown

$151k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	$6.27k	$22.5k	N/A	$643k
Realized PnL	$2k	$1.22k	$39.4k	$201k
Win rate	50%	64%	52%	59%
ROI	12%	5%	2%	2%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.300	0.197	0.101
Markets	10	43	161	298
Best day	$20k	$20k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	6.28	1.43	1.42	1.45
Mean trade PnL	$499	$111	$197	$301
Median trade PnL	$380	$24	$0	$3
Payoff ratio	6.28	0.82	1.32	0.99
Largest win	$1.57k	$1.57k	$23.3k	$148k
Largest loss	$-329	$-2.43k	$-24.6k	$-66.3k
Expectancy	$499

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$10.8k	$103k	$58.3k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.729	5.653	0.223
Calmar	4.267	4.267	4.267	4.267
Drawdown duration (days)	20.0	20.0	20.0	20.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	57%	35%	11%	13%
Concentration top-5	100%	91%	44%	31%
Concentration top-10	100%	100%	62%	41%
Max win streak	1	5	21	21
Max loss streak	1	2	14	14

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	31	448	3195	8290
Unique markets	10	43	161	298
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	100%
Avg entry price	0.451	0.250	0.798	0.746
Portfolio HHI	0.297	0.121	0.165	0.047
Maker share (notional)	29%	90%	84%	79%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	0.2	30.4	60.7	132.0
Holding time median (h)	0.2	17.9	25.9	37.8
Max concurrent	6	14	68	150
Disposition ratio	N/A	3.78	1.12	25.52
Add-to-winner share	67%	18%	52%	49%
Average-down share	33%	23%	37%	42%
Tilt ratio	0.30

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	33%	57%	50%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	0.3042	0.0161	0.0366
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	0.3004	0.0393	0.0603
Entry timing mean	0.870	0.566	0.396	0.363
Exit quality ($)	N/A	$-0	$251	$75
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	0.0%	42.3%	61.2%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0902	0.0902	0.0902	0.0902
Alpha ($)	$-414	$-414	$-414	$-414
Alpha ROI gap	-12.0%	-12.0%	-12.0%	-12.0%
Contrarian score	-0.063	-0.063	-0.063	-0.063
Post-fill drift	0.0008	0.0008	0.0008	0.0008
Post-fill candles (mean)	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 60.0%
Favorite Grinder: 59.8%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 42.0%
Scalper: 39.2%
Contrarian Fader: 38.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.50e-104; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xb0f3265501… entry 0.056
0x4c325469d9… entry 0.008 timing 0.30
0x75ec08ae77… entry 0.043
0xd78ecd1058… entry 0.043
0xeccb47eea2… entry 0.043
0xd950c9590f… entry 0.043
0x358a4c706c… entry 0.036
0xf2e51acfbb… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x18b1c135d0… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0xfee07be730… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0x6685b25cc7… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0x74dba1ce1a… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x88d6770578… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0x42631e1a8c… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0xfbb80ea5f8… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0x120b15af9f… entry 0.040
0x5d861bb608… entry 0.235
0x8fbcb151e2… entry 0.008
0x1d519b8799… entry 0.008
0xb91be12388… entry 0.008

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0xb1ca…1705

0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705

Secondary: Favorite Grinder

This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.

Tilt ratio is 0.57 and disposition ratio 25.52, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.

Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 3731.7), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.

A close second label is Favorite Grinder, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

$6.27k

$22.5k

N/A

$643k

Realized PnL

$2k

$1.22k

$39.4k

$201k

Win rate

50%

64%

52%

59%

ROI

12%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.300

0.197

0.101

Markets

161

298

Best day

$20k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

6.28

1.43

1.42

1.45

Mean trade PnL

$499

$111

$197

$301

Median trade PnL

$380

$24

Payoff ratio

6.28

0.82

1.32

0.99

Largest win

$1.57k

$23.3k

$148k

Largest loss

$-329

$-2.43k

$-24.6k

$-66.3k

Expectancy

$499

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$10.8k

$103k

$58.3k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.729

5.653

0.223

Calmar

4.267

Drawdown duration (days)

20.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

57%

35%

11%

13%

Concentration top-5

100%

91%

44%

31%

Concentration top-10

100%

62%

41%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

448

3195

8290

Unique markets

161

298

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

100%

Avg entry price

0.451

0.250

0.798

0.746

Portfolio HHI

0.297

0.121

0.165

0.047

Maker share (notional)

29%

90%

84%

79%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

0.2

30.4

60.7

132.0

Holding time median (h)

0.2

17.9

25.9

37.8

Max concurrent

150

Disposition ratio

N/A

3.78

1.12

25.52

Add-to-winner share

67%

18%

52%

49%

Average-down share

33%

23%

37%

42%

Tilt ratio

0.30

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

33%

57%

50%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.3042

0.0161

0.0366

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.3004

0.0393

0.0603

Entry timing mean

0.870

0.566

0.396

0.363

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-0

$251

$75

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

0.0%

42.3%

61.2%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0902

Alpha ($)

$-414

Alpha ROI gap

-12.0%

Contrarian score

-0.063

Post-fill drift

0.0008

Post-fill candles (mean)

6.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Tilted Gambler: 60.0%

Favorite Grinder: 59.8%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 42.0%

Scalper: 39.2%

Contrarian Fader: 38.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.50e-104; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xb0f3265501… entry 0.056
0x4c325469d9… entry 0.008 timing 0.30
0x75ec08ae77… entry 0.043
0xd78ecd1058… entry 0.043
0xeccb47eea2… entry 0.043
0xd950c9590f… entry 0.043
0x358a4c706c… entry 0.036
0xf2e51acfbb… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x18b1c135d0… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0xfee07be730… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0x6685b25cc7… entry 0.008 timing 0.29
0x74dba1ce1a… entry 0.008 timing 0.28
0x88d6770578… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0x42631e1a8c… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0xfbb80ea5f8… entry 0.008 timing 0.27
0x120b15af9f… entry 0.040
0x5d861bb608… entry 0.235
0x8fbcb151e2… entry 0.008
0x1d519b8799… entry 0.008
0xb91be12388… entry 0.008

Politics	$160k	62%	124
Geopolitics	$-98.6k	77%	13
UK Elections	$67.6k	43%	7
India	$-56.2k	21%	24
primary elections	$45.6k	61%	114
FDV	$-30.2k	14%	7
Colombia Election	$25.6k	28%	25
Iran Regime	$17.5k	100%	5
Trump	$-13.8k	85%	13
Peru	$13.1k	25%	73
Middle East	$-10.1k	50%	4
United States	$10k	75%	48

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0xc160ac2b…	$148k	$4.17k	3535.8%
0xa93b28a6…	$-66.3k	$66.3k	-100.0%
0x77954e08…	$58.6k	$5.4k	1085.4%
0x5c3e7705…	$-34.3k	$52.3k	-65.6%
0x4c5701bc…	$-31.8k	$110k	-28.8%
0x41c6341d…	$-24.6k	$50k	-49.3%
0xbcacd5a0…	$21.5k	$109k	19.7%
0x9d3f0226…	$-21.2k	$21.2k	-100.0%
0xfbe85201…	$20.9k	$125k	16.8%
0x18b1c135…	$17.5k	$391	4482.7%
0x9eb4dd94…	$15.8k	$51.6k	30.7%
0x341d6a96…	$14.2k	$548	2600.0%
0x120b15af…	$13.8k	$575	2399.8%
0x24bff5f4…	$-13.7k	$13.7k	-100.0%
0x2cd24d17…	$13.3k	$215k	6.2%

0xb1ca…1705

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xb1ca…1705

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

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