0xb100…6461

0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

Favorite GrinderGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

55% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (70%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.67).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 13:11:11 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$716k

Open PnL

$15k

Max drawdown

$69.8k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	$60.6k	$716k
Realized PnL	$-2.44k	$2.97k	$-53k	$677k
Win rate	33%	73%	63%	70%
ROI	-0%	0%	-2%	4%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	0.238	0.242	0.161
Markets	18	81	190	844
Best day	$-701	$15.4k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	0.00	1.07	0.72	1.59
Mean trade PnL	$-348	$53	$-248	$104
Median trade PnL	$0	$30	$20	$10
Payoff ratio	0.00	0.40	0.43	0.67
Largest win	$6	$9.86k	$16.8k	$93k
Largest loss	$-1.23k	$-21.9k	$-28.7k	$-28.7k
Expectancy	$-348

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$9.77k	$6.72k	$7.1k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	0.227	0.281	0.198
Calmar	9.806	9.806	9.806	9.806
Drawdown duration (days)	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	50%	26%	9%	3%
Concentration top-5	100%	64%	29%	8%
Concentration top-10	100%	81%	43%	11%
Max win streak	1	10	31	34
Max loss streak	2	6	14	32

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	342	2361	6921	28574
Unique markets	18	81	190	844
Active days ratio	200%	114%	103%	101%
Avg entry price	0.609	0.548	0.473	0.532
Portfolio HHI	0.346	0.142	0.035	0.007
Maker share (notional)	73%	68%	60%	53%
Two-sided share	0%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	5.0	39.6	90.8	178.5
Holding time median (h)	7.9	45.0	58.4	54.9
Max concurrent	11	66	153	671
Disposition ratio	16.35	3.63	0.92	2.14
Add-to-winner share	32%	79%	76%	75%
Average-down share	68%	17%	23%	25%
Tilt ratio	8.67

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	100%	87%	80%	78%
Brier (weighted)	0.0008	0.1107	0.0723	0.0695
Brier (unweighted)	0.0061	0.0956	0.1038	0.1077
Entry timing mean	0.950	0.823	0.799	0.559
Exit quality ($)	$220	$2.43k	$1.13k	$103
Exit quality ROI gap	13.3%	10.3%	137.3%	26.2%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0059	0.0059	0.0059	0.0059
Alpha ($)	$3.91k	$3.91k	$3.91k	$3.91k
Alpha ROI gap	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%
Contrarian score	-0.219	-0.219	-0.219	-0.219
Post-fill drift	-0.0158	-0.0158	-0.0158	-0.0158
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 59.7%
Scalper: 43.0%
Conviction Holder: 42.2%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 41.6%
Tilted Gambler: 41.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xae9433e408… entry 0.220
0x4815b9206b… entry 0.218 timing 0.05
0x16608c4fdd… entry 0.236
0xa1bb6c583e… entry 0.016 timing 0.12
0x8de24a5124… entry 0.220
0x6897736d78… entry 0.110 timing 0.24
0x7301c676b8… entry 0.110
0xd8ae5635a2… entry 0.170
0xa68adb516f… entry 0.075
0x203e95f71b… entry 0.162
0x79dbae2810… entry 0.046
0xa0e2e5f96d… entry 0.003
0xa90efba18a… entry 0.013
0xc58c1ff65a… entry 0.274 timing 0.34
0x752e842d6f… entry 0.040
0x045df3a43c… entry 0.140
0x55b33a1679… entry 0.010
0xe354455967… entry 0.090
0x43edd40756… entry 0.218
0x053565fab1… entry 0.280

Open share card

← Back to leaderboards

Loading trader…

0xb100…6461

0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

55% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (70%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.67).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$60.6k

$716k

Realized PnL

$-2.44k

$2.97k

$-53k

$677k

Win rate

33%

73%

63%

70%

ROI

-0%

-2%

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.238

0.242

0.161

Markets

190

844

Best day

$-701

$15.4k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

0.00

1.07

0.72

1.59

Mean trade PnL

$-348

$53

$-248

$104

Median trade PnL

$30

$20

$10

Payoff ratio

0.00

0.40

0.43

0.67

Largest win

$9.86k

$16.8k

$93k

Largest loss

$-1.23k

$-21.9k

$-28.7k

Expectancy

$-348

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$9.77k

$6.72k

$7.1k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

0.227

0.281

0.198

Calmar

9.806

Drawdown duration (days)

70.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

50%

26%

Concentration top-5

100%

64%

29%

Concentration top-10

100%

81%

43%

11%

Max win streak

Max loss streak

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

342

2361

6921

28574

Unique markets

190

844

Active days ratio

200%

114%

103%

101%

Avg entry price

0.609

0.548

0.473

0.532

Portfolio HHI

0.346

0.142

0.035

0.007

Maker share (notional)

73%

68%

60%

53%

Two-sided share

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

5.0

39.6

90.8

178.5

Holding time median (h)

7.9

45.0

58.4

54.9

Max concurrent

153

671

Disposition ratio

16.35

3.63

0.92

2.14

Add-to-winner share

32%

79%

76%

75%

Average-down share

68%

17%

23%

25%

Tilt ratio

8.67

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

100%

87%

80%

78%

Brier (weighted)

0.0008

0.1107

0.0723

0.0695

Brier (unweighted)

0.0061

0.0956

0.1038

0.1077

Entry timing mean

0.950

0.823

0.799

0.559

Exit quality ($)

$220

$2.43k

$1.13k

$103

Exit quality ROI gap

13.3%

10.3%

137.3%

26.2%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0059

Alpha ($)

$3.91k

Alpha ROI gap

18.9%

Contrarian score

-0.219

Post-fill drift

-0.0158

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.3

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 59.7%

Scalper: 43.0%

Conviction Holder: 42.2%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 41.6%

Tilted Gambler: 41.4%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xae9433e408… entry 0.220
0x4815b9206b… entry 0.218 timing 0.05
0x16608c4fdd… entry 0.236
0xa1bb6c583e… entry 0.016 timing 0.12
0x8de24a5124… entry 0.220
0x6897736d78… entry 0.110 timing 0.24
0x7301c676b8… entry 0.110
0xd8ae5635a2… entry 0.170
0xa68adb516f… entry 0.075
0x203e95f71b… entry 0.162
0x79dbae2810… entry 0.046
0xa0e2e5f96d… entry 0.003
0xa90efba18a… entry 0.013
0xc58c1ff65a… entry 0.274 timing 0.34
0x752e842d6f… entry 0.040
0x045df3a43c… entry 0.140
0x55b33a1679… entry 0.010
0xe354455967… entry 0.090
0x43edd40756… entry 0.218
0x053565fab1… entry 0.280

Politics	$102k	75%	613
Iran	$100k	72%	157
Economy	$70.9k	65%	31
Crypto	$44.4k	80%	199
Culture	$38.1k	76%	290
Mentions	$31.5k	69%	597
Esports	$31.2k	66%	166
Elon Musk	$22.9k	61%	56
AI	$20k	77%	56
Parent For Derivative	$18k	68%	59
World	$-17.3k	80%	61
Trump	$15.8k	68%	509

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0xd86a8160…	$93k	$163k	57.1%
0x3733a1b6…	$53.3k	$386k	13.8%
0x0e4a0c93…	$-28.7k	$74.6k	-38.5%
0x6114a8a3…	$25.9k	$91.6k	28.3%
0x7a673ef0…	$25.5k	$17.1k	148.9%
0xa93b28a6…	$-24.2k	$65.3k	-37.0%
0x4ec4d0c9…	$-23.5k	$24.4k	-96.1%
0x136f4e24…	$-21.9k	$23.9k	-91.8%
0x804bc342…	$20.3k	$17.4k	116.6%
0x6a67b9d8…	$18.4k	$148k	12.4%
0xcf60aed9…	$18k	$7.14k	252.2%
0xe2100525…	$17.3k	$55.1k	31.4%
0x009cb79c…	$-16.6k	$17.2k	-96.6%
0x9d3f0226…	$-16.2k	$26.2k	-61.9%
0x2000d7ca…	$-16.1k	$16.1k	-100.0%

0xb100…6461

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xb100…6461

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

Fills per week