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0xae7c…487e
0xae7c98235d5dc797edfa3d3af2e0334238a4487e
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
63% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (87%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.95).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:46:07 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$9.22k
Open PnL
$-157k
Max drawdown
$154k
Underwater days
85
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $21.4k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $0 | $2.93k | $179k |
| Win rate | N/A | N/A | 82% | 87% |
| ROI | N/A | N/A | 16% | 20% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.824 | 0.096 | 0.006 |
| Markets | 0 | 0 | 59 | 832 |
| Best day | $420 | $8.48k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 2.87 | 6.21 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $105 | $354 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | N/A | $74 | $26 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.62 | 0.95 |
| Largest win | N/A | N/A | $797 | $38.9k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-1.03k | $-20.5k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.9k | $3.54k | $10.1k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.127 | 0.006 |
| Calmar | 0.059 | 0.059 | 0.059 | 0.059 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 84.5 | 84.5 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | N/A | 25% | 16% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | N/A | 64% | 43% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | N/A | 87% | 52% |
| Max win streak | N/A | N/A | 6 | 27 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 3 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 0 | 673 | 7486 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 0 | 59 | 832 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | N/A | 68% | 90% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | 0.086 | 0.365 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | N/A | 0.098 | 0.017 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | N/A | 54% | 35% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 47.1 | 113.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 32.7 | 18.7 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | 37 | 696 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 1.49 | 0.40 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 55% | 71% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 41% | 28% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 69% | 83% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.0581 | 0.0427 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.2137 | 0.1290 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.617 | 0.580 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-33 | $65 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -3.2% | -0.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0519 | -0.0519 | -0.0519 | -0.0519 |
| Alpha ($) | $-13.5k | $-13.5k | $-13.5k | $-13.5k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -56.7% | -56.7% | -56.7% | -56.7% |
| Contrarian score | -0.260 | -0.260 | -0.260 | -0.260 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0259 | -0.0259 | -0.0259 | -0.0259 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Favorite Grinder: 74.2%
- Scalper: 58.5%
- Tilted Gambler: 44.1%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 42.7%
- Contrarian Fader: 38.5%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 1.47e-23; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
- 0xd271c2ad91… entry 0.188 timing 0.75
- 0x162da915d5… entry 0.087 timing 0.53
- 0x291ff8aa0b… entry 0.040 timing 0.18
- 0x2a20e8e1a0… entry 0.216 timing 0.53
- 0xdfd4d487d0… entry 0.231 timing 0.31
- 0x605c1bb246… entry 0.276 timing 0.29
- 0xd9933a54c5… entry 0.132 timing 0.66
- 0xbb5eb03adc… entry 0.104 timing 0.83
- 0x13419cc3e8… entry 0.190
- 0x2da29921ee… entry 0.286 timing 0.66
- 0x48fbf70c17… entry 0.140 timing 0.65
- 0x35d8c42a46… entry 0.270 timing 0.64
- 0xf9b0abfb23… entry 0.115 timing 0.53
- 0x73b17f90cb… entry 0.047 timing 0.87
- 0x1d346e614b… entry 0.220 timing 0.73
- 0x796a1f3896… entry 0.161 timing 0.72
- 0xea60d26d5d… entry 0.110 timing 0.35
- 0x81bdddf453… entry 0.074 timing 0.87
- 0xc267c98128… entry 0.105 timing 0.87