0xa987…141d

0xa9878e59934ab507f9039bcb917c1bae0451141d

Conviction HolderGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

Secondary: Tilted Gambler

This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.

Median hold is 4.8 days with held-to-resolution 77% and portfolio HHI 0.01.

Trade count stays relatively low (20431) while add-to-winner share is 61%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.

A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Updated 2026-07-19 12:46:21 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$2.2M

Open PnL

Max drawdown

$289k

Underwater days

213

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	N/A	∞
Realized PnL	$0	$0	$0	∞
Win rate	N/A	N/A	N/A	71%
ROI	N/A	N/A	N/A	3%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.135
Markets	0	0	0	1339
Best day	N/A	$0

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.50
Mean trade PnL	N/A	N/A	N/A	$1.51k
Median trade PnL	N/A	N/A	N/A	$1
Payoff ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.60
Largest win	N/A	N/A	N/A	$258k
Largest loss	N/A	N/A	N/A	$-191k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	N/A	N/A	$51.4k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	N/A	∞	0.120
Calmar	7.530	7.530	7.530	7.530
Drawdown duration (days)	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	N/A	N/A	2%
Concentration top-5	N/A	N/A	N/A	9%
Concentration top-10	N/A	N/A	N/A	15%
Max win streak	N/A	N/A	N/A	61
Max loss streak	N/A	N/A	N/A	18

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	0	0	0	20431
Unique markets	0	0	0	1339
Active days ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	74%
Avg entry price	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.467
Portfolio HHI	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.008
Maker share (notional)	N/A	N/A	N/A	69%
Two-sided share	N/A

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	778.0
Holding time median (h)	N/A	N/A	N/A	114.1
Max concurrent	N/A	N/A	N/A	1050
Disposition ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.09
Add-to-winner share	N/A	N/A	N/A	61%
Average-down share	N/A	N/A	N/A	18%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	N/A	N/A	77%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.1366
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.0967
Entry timing mean	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.555
Exit quality ($)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$-193
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	N/A	N/A	65.1%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.0299	-0.0299	-0.0299	-0.0299
Alpha ($)	$-42	$-42	$-42	$-42
Alpha ROI gap	-39.4%	-39.4%	-39.4%	-39.4%
Contrarian score	0.124	0.124	0.124	0.124
Post-fill drift	-0.0365	-0.0365	-0.0365	-0.0365
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.8
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Conviction Holder: 43.9%
Tilted Gambler: 42.8%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 41.5%
Scalper: 31.8%
Favorite Grinder: 24.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.54e-14; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x21a921b2d2… entry 0.200 timing 1.00
0xb2671ef125… entry 0.240 timing 0.96
0xed1cc2686d… entry 0.281 timing 0.40
0x563b1fbfc5… entry 0.270 timing 0.99
0xd9f634bb47… entry 0.270 timing 1.00
0x24fc53a7e6… entry 0.280 timing 0.01
0x9a902e9bc3… entry 0.270 timing 1.00
0x20876dee94… entry 0.250 timing 0.97
0x92df119add… entry 0.125 timing 0.96
0x3763d4f009… entry 0.270 timing 0.97
0x39be54f735… entry 0.042 timing 0.49
0xbc7f408a5a… entry 0.260
0x918ad84643… entry 0.054 timing 0.48
0x959899cd84… entry 0.130 timing 0.48
0x134d4251a9… entry 0.270 timing 0.97

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0xa987…141d

0xa9878e59934ab507f9039bcb917c1bae0451141d

Secondary: Tilted Gambler

This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.

Median hold is 4.8 days with held-to-resolution 77% and portfolio HHI 0.01.

Trade count stays relatively low (20431) while add-to-winner share is 61%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.

A close second label is Tilted Gambler, so the book also shows some of that style.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

∞

Realized PnL

∞

Win rate

N/A

71%

ROI

N/A

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

0.135

Markets

1339

Best day

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

1.50

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$1.51k

Median trade PnL

N/A

Payoff ratio

N/A

0.60

Largest win

N/A

$258k

Largest loss

N/A

$-191k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$51.4k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

∞

0.120

Calmar

7.530

Drawdown duration (days)

5.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

Concentration top-5

N/A

Concentration top-10

N/A

15%

Max win streak

N/A

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

20431

Unique markets

1339

Active days ratio

N/A

74%

Avg entry price

N/A

0.467

Portfolio HHI

N/A

0.008

Maker share (notional)

N/A

69%

Two-sided share

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

778.0

Holding time median (h)

N/A

114.1

Max concurrent

N/A

1050

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.09

Add-to-winner share

N/A

61%

Average-down share

N/A

18%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

77%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.1366

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.0967

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.555

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-193

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

65.1%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.0299

Alpha ($)

$-42

Alpha ROI gap

-39.4%

Contrarian score

0.124

Post-fill drift

-0.0365

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.8

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Conviction Holder: 43.9%

Tilted Gambler: 42.8%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 41.5%

Scalper: 31.8%

Favorite Grinder: 24.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 2.54e-14; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x21a921b2d2… entry 0.200 timing 1.00
0xb2671ef125… entry 0.240 timing 0.96
0xed1cc2686d… entry 0.281 timing 0.40
0x563b1fbfc5… entry 0.270 timing 0.99
0xd9f634bb47… entry 0.270 timing 1.00
0x24fc53a7e6… entry 0.280 timing 0.01
0x9a902e9bc3… entry 0.270 timing 1.00
0x20876dee94… entry 0.250 timing 0.97
0x92df119add… entry 0.125 timing 0.96
0x3763d4f009… entry 0.270 timing 0.97
0x39be54f735… entry 0.042 timing 0.49
0xbc7f408a5a… entry 0.260
0x918ad84643… entry 0.054 timing 0.48
0x959899cd84… entry 0.130 timing 0.48
0x134d4251a9… entry 0.270 timing 0.97

Sports	$2.16M	74%	1186
Crypto	$52.5k	100%	5
Culture	$31.1k	10%	80
Bitcoin	$10.5k	100%	5
United States	$7.53k	100%	1
Formula 1	$5.53k	100%	7
MLB	$-4.33k	69%	35
NFL Playoffs	$3.3k	81%	21
uncategorized	$1.76k	75%	8
Politics	$1.47k	50%	2
wildcard	$-1.11k	33%	6
NFL	$-1.05k	85%	13

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x47ea4178…	$259k	$333k	77.6%
0x0eb0d3c3…	$-191k	$199k	-95.9%
0x7c794eac…	$183k	$217k	84.2%
0xc2dab6ae…	$-177k	$177k	-100.0%
0xbf52f05b…	$-170k	$170k	-100.0%
0x09293493…	$-162k	$162k	-100.0%
0x6131be08…	$156k	$108k	143.9%
0x08c4b6f6…	$-144k	$144k	-100.0%
0x078ea6f0…	$-126k	$126k	-100.0%
0x93343cc6…	$-123k	$123k	-100.0%
0xc3aee9f6…	$-121k	$217k	-55.5%
0xf6fbb259…	$-117k	$117k	-100.0%
0xe182afe6…	$-113k	$113k	-100.0%
0x943b3261…	$-111k	$111k	-100.0%
0xcba24842…	$107k	$44.1k	242.2%

0xa987…141d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xa987…141d

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

Fills per week