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0xa8a5…122b
0xa8a53259e60402b0001953f49f66ccb47d35122b
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 9.63 and disposition ratio 3.71, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 271.0), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:42:39 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$-401k
Open PnL
$-987k
Max drawdown
$890k
Underwater days
322
Equity curve
Board ranks
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $163k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $156k | $155k | $-527k | $94.4k |
| Win rate | 100% | 50% | 40% | 63% |
| ROI | 117% | 116% | -15% | 2% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.397 | -0.064 | -0.031 |
| Markets | 1 | 2 | 59 | 220 |
| Best day | $144 | $156k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 144.70 | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| Mean trade PnL | $156k | $77.4k | $-9.24k | $516 |
| Median trade PnL | $156k | $77.4k | $0 | $218 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 144.70 | 1.04 | 0.62 |
| Largest win | $156k | $156k | $232k | $232k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-1.08k | $-151k | $-151k |
| Expectancy | $156k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $58.5k | $89.2k | $24k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | -0.066 | -0.023 |
| Calmar | -0.499 | -0.499 | -0.499 | -0.499 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 100% | 99% | 8% | 6% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 100% | 30% | 23% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 52% | 40% |
| Max win streak | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 99 | 101 | 14993 | 20807 |
| Unique markets | 1 | 2 | 59 | 220 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 67% | 77% | 21% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.378 | 0.317 | 0.416 |
| Portfolio HHI | 1.000 | 0.984 | 0.025 | 0.015 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 99% | 97% | 78% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 0.4 | 4.4 | 454.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.5 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 1 | 16 | 144 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.05 | 3.71 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 52% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 0% | 50% | 27% | 65% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.2916 | 0.2904 | 0.2029 | 0.1933 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.2916 | 0.2171 | 0.1954 | 0.1854 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.991 | 0.743 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $-9.05k | $-2.7k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -0.0% | -19.8% | -6.7% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0141 | -0.0141 | -0.0141 | -0.0141 |
| Alpha ($) | $-927 | $-927 | $-927 | $-927 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -16.8% | -16.8% | -16.8% | -16.8% |
| Contrarian score | -0.192 | -0.192 | -0.192 | -0.192 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | 0.0002 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 97.1%
- News Sniper: 78.0%
- Scalper: 44.6%
- Contrarian Fader: 38.9%
- Conviction Holder: 25.8%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 3.17e-4; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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