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0xa5e3…4d7e · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xa5e3…4d7e
0xa5e3044fd953605f9407d58c76e48fd75a394d7e
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 0.46 and disposition ratio 2.41, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 35.4), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:07:12 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.98k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-18.2k | $-15.6k | $-6.45k | $2.19k |
| Win rate | 72% | 71% | 74% | 47% |
| ROI | -26% | -9% | -2% | 0% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.484 | 0.199 | -0.001 |
| Markets | 73 | 156 | 176 | 1602 |
| Best day | $676 | $3.63k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-423 | $-147 | $-26 | $0 |
| Median trade PnL | $5 | $4 | $5 | $-0 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1.12 |
| Largest win | $4.77k | $4.77k | $4.77k | $23.4k |
| Largest loss | $-22k | $-22k | $-22k | $-22k |
| Expectancy | $-423 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $2.07k | $1.51k | $3.67k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.467 | 0.176 | -0.001 |
| Calmar | -0.029 | -0.029 | -0.029 | -0.029 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 364.5 | 364.5 | 364.5 | 364.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 69% | 46% | 30% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 95% | 73% | 55% | 10% |
| Concentration top-10 | 98% | 86% | 72% | 15% |
| Max win streak | 9 | 15 | 15 | 23 |
| Max loss streak | 3 | 4 | 4 | 118 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 928 | 4371 | 8411 | 33743 |
| Unique markets | 73 | 156 | 176 | 1602 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 77% | 61% |
| Avg entry price | 0.967 | 0.912 | 0.923 | 0.374 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.119 | 0.074 | 0.090 | 0.023 |
| Maker share (notional) | 95% | 92% | 94% | 97% |
| Two-sided share | 38% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 72.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 11.2 |
| Max concurrent | 6 | 14 | 15 | 919 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.37 | 2.65 | 5.06 | 2.41 |
| Add-to-winner share | 75% | 80% | 80% | 53% |
| Average-down share | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | 1.85 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 20% | 16% | 15% | 53% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.0594 | 0.0282 | 0.2183 | 0.0954 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1827 | 0.1387 | 0.1606 | 0.0831 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.970 | 0.657 | 0.628 | 0.624 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-3 | $-5 | $34 | $-28 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 105.8% | 70.8% | 64.2% | 112.8% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0256 | -0.0256 | -0.0256 | -0.0256 |
| Alpha ($) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -19.1% | -19.1% | -19.1% | -19.1% |
| Contrarian score | -0.030 | -0.030 | -0.030 | -0.030 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 44.1%
- Scalper: 42.4%
- Favorite Grinder: 36.7%
- Contrarian Fader: 29.4%
- News Sniper: 29.4%
| Worst day | $676 | $-1.69k | $-4.04k | $-37.1k |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 100% | 94% | 70% | 7% |
| Spread capture | -0.0414 | -0.0011 | 0.0028 | -0.0119 |
| Inventory turnover | 928.00 | 4371.00 | 8411.00 | 33743.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.83 | 1.95 | 1.33 | 0.17 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 1059.90 | -1477.18 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $-53.6k | 48% | 1556 |
| primary elections | $14.5k | 56% | 511 |
| Trump | $11.5k | 60% | 108 |
| NBA | $-10.6k | 43% | 235 |
| Finance | $7.75k | 77% | 64 |
| NHL | $7.15k | 13% | 251 |
| invitational | $6.29k | 26% | 156 |
| Oil | $-6.25k | 50% | 2 |
| Colombia Election | $6.24k | 67% | 12 |
| Eurovision | $-5.37k | 66% | 61 |
| Peru | $-5.24k | 30% | 20 |
| Gov Shutdown | $5.1k | 100% | 2 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xde72dd28… | $-22k | $52.2k | -42.1% |
| 0xa6caccc7… | $18k | $16.6k | 108.3% |
| 0x34f46b40… | $-17.4k | $17.4k | -100.0% |
| 0x22e7b5e3… | $16.8k | $31.5k | 53.3% |
| 0x2209d272… | $-16.2k | $16.8k | -96.1% |
| 0x281565ca… | $16k | $49.6k | 32.4% |
| 0x25a79ca9… | $-13.6k | $13.6k | -100.0% |
| 0x32551398… | $-12.7k | $13.4k | -94.5% |
| 0x6edc6c77… | $12.2k | $15.7k | 77.2% |
| 0x2382b18a… | $12.1k | $29.6k | 40.8% |
| 0xa52ec10f… | $12k | $7.34k | 163.2% |
| 0x838162b7… | $-10.3k | $13.3k | -77.3% |
| 0x4cf389ad… | $9.92k | $20.1k | 49.3% |
| 0x41950d97… | $-9.14k | $11.2k | -81.6% |
| 0xaae85927… | $-8.09k | $8.09k | -100.0% |