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0xa4b7b1814b0da33f2b61be4939976898aa476008
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 31530 with median hold 0.3 hours, maker share only 58%.
Capital velocity 1.0 and held-to-resolution 61% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:40:34 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $20.8k | $21.2k | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-16.5k | $10.2k | $-40k | $85.8k |
| Win rate | 55% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| ROI | -10% | 1% | -2% | 1% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.084 | -0.133 | 0.026 |
| Markets | 8 | 35 | 117 | 260 |
| Best day | $7.13k | $15.9k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.74 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-1.5k | $162 | $-180 | $172 |
| Median trade PnL | $68 | $18 | $6 | $4 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.62 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Largest win | $19.9k | $55.2k | $55.2k | $142k |
| Largest loss | $-41.8k | $-63.3k | $-82.1k | $-176k |
| Expectancy | $-1.5k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $13.7k | $25.8k | $23.4k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.067 | -0.094 | 0.022 |
| Calmar | 0.393 | 0.393 | 0.393 | 0.393 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 30.5 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 30.5 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 6% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 69% | 30% | 16% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 87% | 47% | 26% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 685 | 2538 | 8332 | 31530 |
| Unique markets | 8 | 35 | 117 | 260 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 100% | 93% |
| Avg entry price | 0.478 | 0.544 | 0.527 | 0.525 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.218 | 0.117 | 0.030 | 0.014 |
| Maker share (notional) | 54% | 63% | 66% | 58% |
| Two-sided share | 88% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Max concurrent | 7 | 29 | 91 | 212 |
| Disposition ratio | 1.49 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Add-to-winner share | 71% | 80% | 61% | 58% |
| Average-down share | 29% | 16% | 32% | 36% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.51 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 67% | 56% | 56% | 61% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1403 | 0.1157 | 0.1538 | 0.1121 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1373 | 0.1331 | 0.1397 | 0.1251 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.189 | 0.235 | 0.249 | 0.312 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $-0 | $90 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.3% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0194 | 0.0194 | 0.0194 | 0.0194 |
| Alpha ($) | $-3.15k | $-3.15k | $-3.15k | $-3.15k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -208.2% | -208.2% | -208.2% | -208.2% |
| Contrarian score | -0.039 | -0.039 | -0.039 | -0.039 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0161 | -0.0161 | -0.0161 | -0.0161 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $43.4k |
| $85.4k |
| Worst day | $7.13k | $-21k | $-90.6k | $-90.6k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $162 |
| $-180 |
| $172 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 7% |
| 35% |
| 1% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 0% | 11% | 15% | 20% | 18% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 20% | 47% | 56% | 56% | 17% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 86% | 82% | 79% | 53% |
| >0.90 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 70% | 12% |
| 97% |
| 95% |
| 96% |
| Spread capture | 0.0267 | 0.0053 | -0.0036 | -0.0095 |
| Inventory turnover | 685.00 | 2538.00 | 8332.00 | 31530.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.17 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Avg ticket | $273 | $324 | $263 | $281 |
| Median ticket | $16 | $18 | $17 | $14 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | 47.30 | -138.09 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.82 |
| 1.41 |
| 1.02 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $87.8k | 51% | 495 |
| uncategorized | $-1.95k | 50% | 4 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1872435c… | $106k | $67.8k | 156.9% |
| 0xb6efc33b… | $-54.2k | $96k | -56.4% |
| 0xa9a08a9a… | $48.8k | $63.8k | 76.5% |
| 0x70bf0d42… | $-48.6k | $318k | -15.3% |
| 0x5b0b5b6d… | $-47.6k | $111k | -42.7% |
| 0x2e74d617… | $42.6k | $204k | 20.9% |
| 0x354b99e9… | $-42k | $107k | -39.2% |
| 0xcada7631… | $-37.8k | $87.1k | -43.3% |
| 0x298f3504… | $37.5k | $152k | 24.7% |
| 0xd18a378a… | $-37.1k | $50.9k | -72.9% |
| 0x40b79a54… | $-34.3k | $241k | -14.3% |
| 0x1bd449e1… | $32.9k | $61.5k | 53.5% |
| 0x69f3fc30… | $31.6k | $166k | 19.1% |
| 0xc7891488… | $31.4k | $124k | 25.4% |
| 0xa2e93646… | $29.7k | $53.2k | 55.8% |
| 3463 |
| 3463 |
| 3463 |
| 3463 |