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0xa38a…821d · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xa38a…821d
0xa38a455bbdd4b68486548b7e19da99903f4f821d
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 65656 with median hold 1.4 hours, maker share only 53%.
Capital velocity 0.8 and held-to-resolution 80% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:57:51 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $24.6k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $50.2k | $46.7k | $-712k | $96.5k |
| Win rate | 60% | 59% | 54% | 55% |
| ROI | 28% | 10% | -11% | 0% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.077 | -0.162 | 0.001 |
| Markets | 33 | 116 | 733 | 2638 |
| Best day | $47k | $47k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | 2.70 | 1.41 | 0.74 | 1.01 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.12k | $273 | $-676 | $19 |
| Median trade PnL | $61 | $25 | $4 | $4 |
| Payoff ratio | 1.80 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 0.83 |
| Largest win | $25.7k | $25.7k | $131k | $237k |
| Largest loss | $-9.71k | $-18.3k | $-318k | $-318k |
| Expectancy | $1.12k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $26k | $99.7k | $45.6k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.049 | -0.111 | 0.001 |
| Calmar | 0.018 | 0.018 | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 75% | 36% | 22% | 8% |
| Concentration top-10 | 90% | 54% | 34% | 13% |
| Max win streak | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| Max loss streak | 2 | 2 | 131 | 131 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 1093 | 2280 | 19162 | 65656 |
| Unique markets | 33 | 116 | 733 | 2638 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 98% |
| Avg entry price | 0.521 | 0.518 | 0.212 | 0.388 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.101 | 0.035 | 0.013 | 0.004 |
| Maker share (notional) | 60% | 48% | 66% | 53% |
| Two-sided share | 55% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 6.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Max concurrent | 21 | 88 | 538 | 2213 |
| Disposition ratio | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| Add-to-winner share | 62% | 59% | 53% | 56% |
| Average-down share | 35% | 39% | 44% | 42% |
| Tilt ratio | 4.47 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 53% | 68% | 68% | 80% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1264 | 0.1192 | 0.1602 | 0.1501 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1489 | 0.1372 | 0.1432 | 0.1489 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.990 | 0.439 | 0.418 | 0.455 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-0 | $0 | $-1 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | 0.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 |
| Alpha ($) | $1.16k | $1.16k | $1.16k | $1.16k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| Contrarian score | 0.023 | 0.023 | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 | -0.0204 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Scalper: 57.6%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 50.5%
- News Sniper: 34.0%
- Conviction Holder: 32.2%
- Contrarian Fader: 30.4%
| Worst day | $47k | $-32.5k | $-324k | $-324k |
| Spread capture | -0.0022 | 0.0090 | -0.0125 | 0.0038 |
| Inventory turnover | 1093.00 | 2280.00 | 19162.00 | 65656.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 0.83 |
| Avg ticket | $155 | $185 | $304 | $317 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -1583.20 | 77.63 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $143k | 55% | 4992 |
| PGA | $33k | 65% | 20 |
| Parent For Derivative | $-27.6k | 0% | 4 |
| uncategorized | $-14.3k | 54% | 41 |
| NFL Playoffs | $-11.5k | 56% | 9 |
| Esports | $-9.29k | 54% | 26 |
| UFC 325 | $-7.22k | 67% | 6 |
| LA | $-6.25k | 0% | 1 |
| Indian Premier League | $-4.55k | 50% | 6 |
| Tennis | $-3.59k | 53% | 34 |
| Soccer | $3.28k | 78% | 9 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $1.05k | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x94e50623… | $-317k | $322k | -98.6% |
| 0x26c10c27… | $237k | $246k | 96.5% |
| 0x6d621f9a… | $-211k | $243k | -86.6% |
| 0xa75053ff… | $-162k | $167k | -96.9% |
| 0x802adc72… | $144k | $151k | 95.1% |
| 0x232342e2… | $129k | $64.8k | 198.9% |
| 0x3774cdf1… | $121k | $290k | 41.8% |
| 0x81cef42d… | $-120k | $195k | -61.4% |
| 0xc297782d… | $111k | $46.1k | 241.0% |
| 0x8530b964… | $-106k | $245k | -43.3% |
| 0x29814670… | $-97.7k | $178k | -54.8% |
| 0x1f5cd4d1… | $96k | $124k | 77.6% |
| 0x1f2bb0bf… | $94.8k | $164k | 57.7% |
| 0x3bb3f35e… | $-93.9k | $253k | -37.2% |
| 0x86f102a3… | $-93.3k | $175k | -53.2% |