0xa2f1…2d22

0xa2f1fecf1cc7db65a46588f764b6691533052d22

Favorite GrinderGrade DStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

66% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (71%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.99).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 12:49:49 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$570k

Open PnL

$-294k

Max drawdown

$271k

Underwater days

233

Equity curve

Board ranks

Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	N/A	N/A	$570k
Realized PnL	$0	$2.61k	$14.1k	$1.2M
Win rate	N/A	33%	74%	71%
ROI	N/A	5%	2%	3%
Sharpe (daily)	N/A	-0.548	-0.099	0.108
Markets	0	4	91	2172
Best day	$-334	$895

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	N/A	1.14	1.40	2.37
Mean trade PnL	N/A	$652	$252	$271
Median trade PnL	N/A	$-22	$49	$14
Payoff ratio	N/A	2.29	0.49	0.99
Largest win	N/A	$20.7k	$20.7k	$32.1k
Largest loss	N/A	$-18.1k	$-18.1k	$-18.5k
Expectancy	N/A

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$14.9k	$9.21k	$6.75k
Sortino (daily)	N/A	-0.385	-0.071	0.100
Calmar	1.605	1.605	1.605	1.605
Drawdown duration (days)	232.5	232.5	232.5	232.5

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	N/A	53%	25%	1%
Concentration top-5	N/A	100%	68%	4%
Concentration top-10	N/A	100%	84%	8%
Max win streak	N/A	1	11	38
Max loss streak	N/A	1	3	37

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	0	19	909	54439
Unique markets	0	4	91	2172
Active days ratio	N/A	100%	96%	99%
Avg entry price	N/A	0.776	0.742	0.674
Portfolio HHI	N/A	0.365	0.067	0.003
Maker share (notional)	N/A	38%	66%	95%
Two-sided share	N/A

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	N/A	2.3	48.0	120.8
Holding time median (h)	N/A	0.2	16.9	27.6
Max concurrent	N/A	2	40	1684
Disposition ratio	N/A	0.83	0.62	1.54
Add-to-winner share	N/A	100%	46%	53%
Average-down share	N/A	0%	49%	35%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	N/A	100%	42%	79%
Brier (weighted)	N/A	0.0784	0.0169	0.0481
Brier (unweighted)	N/A	0.0784	0.1560	0.0792
Entry timing mean	N/A	0.916	0.803	0.543
Exit quality ($)	N/A	$-108	$-599	$141
Exit quality ROI gap	N/A	-66.6%	10.3%	56.0%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	-0.1053	-0.1053	-0.1053	-0.1053
Alpha ($)	$-509	$-509	$-509	$-509
Alpha ROI gap	-69.9%	-69.9%	-69.9%	-69.9%
Contrarian score	0.213	0.213	0.213	0.213
Post-fill drift	-0.0036	-0.0036	-0.0036	-0.0036
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.9	5.9	5.9	5.9
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 66.1%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 43.4%
Scalper: 41.4%
Tilted Gambler: 40.2%
Conviction Holder: 32.0%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x20d0bc2825… entry 0.007 timing 0.17
0xd65891729c… entry 0.007 timing 0.17
0x09ad4955c1… entry 0.008 timing 0.17
0x5969cbb46a… entry 0.008 timing 0.16
0x0f49db97f7… entry 0.007 timing 0.15
0x4567b275e6… entry 0.008 timing 0.15
0x7ad403c350… entry 0.008 timing 0.15
0x6df2f2ca43… entry 0.135
0x1d519b8799… entry 0.007 timing 0.10
0xe39adea057… entry 0.007 timing 0.10
0xc586d15be7… entry 0.008 timing 0.08
0x61d9486c0f… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0x4c325469d9… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0x2c03c41e50… entry 0.008 timing 0.08
0xac66814545… entry 0.156
0xce9a5fa30f… entry 0.008
0xe6bcc2f1dd… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0xf232b56599… entry 0.008 timing 0.07
0xe2bdf6c18c… entry 0.008 timing 0.06

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0xa2f1…2d22

0xa2f1fecf1cc7db65a46588f764b6691533052d22

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

66% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (71%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.99).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$570k

Realized PnL

$2.61k

$14.1k

$1.2M

Win rate

N/A

33%

74%

71%

ROI

N/A

Sharpe (daily)

N/A

-0.548

-0.099

0.108

Markets

2172

Best day

$-334

$895

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

N/A

1.14

1.40

2.37

Mean trade PnL

N/A

$652

$252

$271

Median trade PnL

N/A

$-22

$49

$14

Payoff ratio

N/A

2.29

0.49

0.99

Largest win

N/A

$20.7k

$32.1k

Largest loss

N/A

$-18.1k

$-18.5k

Expectancy

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$14.9k

$9.21k

$6.75k

Sortino (daily)

N/A

-0.385

-0.071

0.100

Calmar

1.605

Drawdown duration (days)

232.5

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

N/A

53%

25%

Concentration top-5

N/A

100%

68%

Concentration top-10

N/A

100%

84%

Max win streak

N/A

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

909

54439

Unique markets

2172

Active days ratio

N/A

100%

96%

99%

Avg entry price

N/A

0.776

0.742

0.674

Portfolio HHI

N/A

0.365

0.067

0.003

Maker share (notional)

N/A

38%

66%

95%

Two-sided share

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

N/A

2.3

48.0

120.8

Holding time median (h)

N/A

0.2

16.9

27.6

Max concurrent

N/A

1684

Disposition ratio

N/A

0.83

0.62

1.54

Add-to-winner share

N/A

100%

46%

53%

Average-down share

N/A

49%

35%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

N/A

100%

42%

79%

Brier (weighted)

N/A

0.0784

0.0169

0.0481

Brier (unweighted)

N/A

0.0784

0.1560

0.0792

Entry timing mean

N/A

0.916

0.803

0.543

Exit quality ($)

N/A

$-108

$-599

$141

Exit quality ROI gap

N/A

-66.6%

10.3%

56.0%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

-0.1053

Alpha ($)

$-509

Alpha ROI gap

-69.9%

Contrarian score

0.213

Post-fill drift

-0.0036

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.9

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 66.1%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 43.4%

Scalper: 41.4%

Tilted Gambler: 40.2%

Conviction Holder: 32.0%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 0.00e+0; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0x20d0bc2825… entry 0.007 timing 0.17
0xd65891729c… entry 0.007 timing 0.17
0x09ad4955c1… entry 0.008 timing 0.17
0x5969cbb46a… entry 0.008 timing 0.16
0x0f49db97f7… entry 0.007 timing 0.15
0x4567b275e6… entry 0.008 timing 0.15
0x7ad403c350… entry 0.008 timing 0.15
0x6df2f2ca43… entry 0.135
0x1d519b8799… entry 0.007 timing 0.10
0xe39adea057… entry 0.007 timing 0.10
0xc586d15be7… entry 0.008 timing 0.08
0x61d9486c0f… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0x4c325469d9… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0x2c03c41e50… entry 0.008 timing 0.08
0xac66814545… entry 0.156
0xce9a5fa30f… entry 0.008
0xe6bcc2f1dd… entry 0.007 timing 0.08
0xf232b56599… entry 0.008 timing 0.07
0xe2bdf6c18c… entry 0.008 timing 0.06

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Politics	$24.3k	70%	57

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x2bc029d1…	$32.1k	$27.5k	116.8%
0xa4f51ae0…	$23.4k	$30k	77.9%
0x6edc6c77…	$22k	$1.51k	1457.9%
0xe1efac87…	$21.9k	$249k	8.8%
0xece4c236…	$21.7k	$38.6k	56.2%
0xbb52fa73…	$21.2k	$25.8k	82.3%
0x0c4cd205…	$20.7k	$2.17k	957.4%
0xcba24842…	$20.4k	$2.43k	836.9%
0xfb80c14c…	$-20.3k	$37.4k	-54.2%
0xc26b4fd7…	$19.9k	$2.51k	793.8%
0x34be1ef6…	$19.8k	$69k	28.8%
0xed457bd0…	$19.4k	$66.8k	29.0%
0x405534c0…	$18.6k	$56.1k	33.2%
0x9f41a3e4…	$18.5k	$18k	102.9%
0x8bf1c153…	$-18.1k	$22.6k	-80.0%

0xa2f1…2d22

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xa2f1…2d22

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

Hour of day (UTC)

Day of week (UTC)

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