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0x9d84…1344 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
0x9d84…1344
0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 1.81 and disposition ratio 1.50, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 1700.4), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:41:07 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $1.86k | $219k | ∞ |
| Win rate | N/A | 100% | 75% | 55% |
| ROI | N/A | 5% | 27% | 25% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.126 | -0.024 | 0.091 |
| Markets | 2 | 14 | 85 | 922 |
| Best day | $1.91k | $36k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | ∞ | 12.78 | 5.89 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $929 | $2.57k | $1.9k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $929 | $244 | $14 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 4.19 | 4.77 |
| Largest win | N/A | $1.76k | $87.2k | ∞ |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-5.99k | $-48.9k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $34.6k | $31k | $19.2k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.099 | -0.057 | -0.014 | 0.098 |
| Calmar | 3.973 | 3.973 | 3.973 | 3.973 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 95% | 40% | 46% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 73% | 54% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 83% | 61% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 2 | 16 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 5 | 270 | 5425 | 59034 |
| Unique markets | 2 | 14 | 85 | 922 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 86% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.052 | 0.286 | 0.386 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.745 | 0.270 | 0.110 | 0.041 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 94% | 73% | 65% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 12.4 | 141.8 | 327.1 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 0.6 | 34.1 | 24.3 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 4 | 44 | 447 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 9.07 | 1.50 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 86% | 73% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 11% | 19% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 50% | 47% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0023 | 0.0729 | 0.0555 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0274 | 0.0983 | 0.0870 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.531 | 0.537 | 0.444 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-0 | $-345 | $-997 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | -0.0% | 821.1% | 591.7% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0334 | 0.0334 | 0.0334 | 0.0334 |
| Alpha ($) | $31.1k | $31.1k | $31.1k | $31.1k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -15.8% | -15.8% | -15.8% | -15.8% |
| Contrarian score | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0007 | -0.0007 | -0.0007 | -0.0007 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 51.1%
- Scalper: 49.5%
- Favorite Grinder: 45.0%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 34.8%
- Longshot Hunter: 25.4%
| Worst day | $1.91k | $-77k | $-92.9k | $-114k |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 100% | 75% | 49% | 28% |
| Spread capture | N/A | -0.0245 | -0.0056 | -0.0043 |
| Inventory turnover | 5.00 | 270.00 | 5425.00 | 59034.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | 0.23 | 1.21 | 1.79 |
| Avg ticket | $295 | $34 | $178 | $263 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -581.50 | -233.71 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Parent For Derivative | $1.38M | 60% | 55 |
| Geopolitics | $144k | 69% | 29 |
| United States | $103k | 69% | 32 |
| Trump-Zelenskyy | $51.1k | 100% | 1 |
| Trump | $49.3k | 74% | 34 |
| Fed Chair | $41.8k | 100% | 10 |
| Politics | $41.7k | 62% | 126 |
| Ukraine | $41.3k | 100% | 3 |
| Awards | $39k | 43% | 122 |
| UK | $37.7k | 54% | 13 |
| Movies | $33.8k | 51% | 35 |
| Iran | $26.9k | 55% | 38 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x61b66d02… | $1.4M | $51k | 2750.5% |
| 0xbee2cd40… | $102k | $44.1k | 230.4% |
| 0xd4bbf7f6… | $59.4k | $236k | 25.2% |
| 0xe5466727… | $51.1k | $24.2k | 211.5% |
| 0xb957e0c6… | $-48.9k | $219k | -22.3% |
| 0xabb86b08… | $43.9k | $273k | 16.1% |
| 0xaeea5f91… | $41.1k | $35.5k | 115.8% |
| 0x773abaa5… | $40.3k | $14.2k | 282.5% |
| 0x3488f31e… | $-39.4k | $350k | -11.2% |
| 0x1bb8bd43… | $36.6k | $19.2k | 190.4% |
| 0x4cc28616… | $27.3k | $1.38k | 1980.1% |
| 0x9d3f0226… | $25.6k | $88.1k | 29.0% |
| 0x74d91fa1… | $24.9k | $48.1k | 51.9% |
| 0xfc6eace3… | $-23.8k | $79.6k | -29.9% |
| 0x575e8631… | $-23.7k | $58k | -40.9% |