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0x99e42eb9038705165b22f821e27659c1dc41e4c4
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.
Weekly activity shows 14 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.72 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).
Holds stay short (median 1.6 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:26:57 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $74.6k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-322 | $-317k | $-177k | $-118k |
| Win rate | 86% | 26% | 49% | 62% |
| ROI | -1% | -82% | -23% | -2% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.055 | 0.069 | -0.024 |
| Markets | 13 | 27 | 83 | 1151 |
| Best day | $-92 | $8.79k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.96 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.94 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-23 | $-3.87k | $-1.41k | $-99 |
| Median trade PnL | $1 | $-206 | $-1 | $2 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| Largest win | $6.71k | $8.95k | $46k | $69.4k |
| Largest loss | $-7.38k | $-66.4k | $-66.4k | $-66.4k |
| Expectancy | $-23 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $5.88k | $14.6k | $16.2k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.049 | 0.065 | -0.016 |
| Calmar | -0.343 | -0.343 | -0.343 | -0.343 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 137.5 | 137.5 | 137.5 | 137.5 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 50% | 19% | 13% | 2% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 53% | 43% | 8% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 74% | 60% | 14% |
| Max win streak | 6 | 12 | 19 | 65 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 59 | 59 | 138 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 118 | 285 | 1400 | 15545 |
| Unique markets | 13 | 27 | 83 | 1151 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 77% | 59% |
| Avg entry price | 0.639 | 0.666 | 0.725 | 0.531 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.217 | 0.119 | 0.042 | 0.005 |
| Maker share (notional) | 79% | 68% | 84% | 38% |
| Two-sided share | 15% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 11.5 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Max concurrent | 8 | 15 | 25 | 757 |
| Disposition ratio | 1.00 | 2.58 | 0.18 | 0.72 |
| Add-to-winner share | 0% | 83% | 63% | 55% |
| Average-down share | 100% | 17% | 38% | 31% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.09 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 60% | 54% | 30% | 64% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.1085 | 0.3102 | 0.1853 | 0.1792 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.0541 | 0.1514 | 0.1386 | 0.1622 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.857 | 0.714 | 0.821 | 0.724 |
| Exit quality ($) | $34 | $4 | $7 | $-34 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 11.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0938 | -0.0938 | -0.0938 | -0.0938 |
| Alpha ($) | $-11 | $-11 | $-11 | $-11 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -4.3% | -4.3% | -4.3% | -4.3% |
| Contrarian score | 0.371 | 0.371 | 0.371 | 0.371 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0851 | -0.0851 | -0.0851 | -0.0851 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Post-fill observations |
Joint probability 3.21e-10; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $53.6k |
| $57.6k |
| Worst day | $-92 | $-11.4k | $-39.1k | $-106k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $-3.87k |
| $-1.41k |
| $-99 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| 17% |
| 1% |
| 0.10–0.40 | 67% | 6% | 14% | 35% | 14% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 0% | 18% | 40% | 48% | 26% |
| 0.60–0.90 | 100% | 42% | 79% | 78% | 50% |
| >0.90 | 100% | 91% | 95% | 98% | 9% |
| 7% |
| 8% |
| 5% |
| Spread capture | -0.0115 | -0.0078 | -0.0060 | 0.0334 |
| Inventory turnover | 118.00 | 285.00 | 1400.00 | 15545.00 |
| Capital velocity | 1.02 | 0.20 | 0.76 | 1.15 |
| Avg ticket | $269 | $278 | $426 | $422 |
| Median ticket | $23 | $27 | $26 | $16 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -45.20 | 11.47 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 3.92 |
| 2.44 |
| 1.20 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $-131k | 68% | 726 |
| Esports | $68.3k | 49% | 376 |
| Tennis | $-50.8k | 47% | 34 |
| Olympics | $-3.23k | 33% | 3 |
| UFC 325 | $-2.94k | 50% | 4 |
| Formula 1 | $637 | 80% | 5 |
| mvp | $518 | 100% | 1 |
| 2026 Winter Games | $193 | 100% | 36 |
| NBA | $172 | 100% | 2 |
| Bitcoin | $-124 | 0% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | $7 | 100% | 1 |
| uncategorized | $5 | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c5d3c6d… | $69.4k | $35.8k | 194.1% |
| 0x34432763… | $-66.4k | $66.4k | -100.0% |
| 0xf92cd22c… | $-62.1k | $62.1k | -100.0% |
| 0xe263512d… | $-56k | $56k | -100.0% |
| 0x6da32601… | $-55.7k | $55.7k | -100.0% |
| 0xee064081… | $55.2k | $23.6k | 233.3% |
| 0x79b9641e… | $-55k | $55k | -100.0% |
| 0x99e70457… | $-51.6k | $51.7k | -99.7% |
| 0xdace2b1f… | $46k | $13.1k | 351.5% |
| 0x06707a53… | $-45.9k | $45.9k | -100.0% |
| 0xdef09bba… | $-45.9k | $45.9k | -100.0% |
| 0xde9433a0… | $45.5k | $40.8k | 111.6% |
| 0x56a22fd1… | $-45k | $45k | -100.0% |
| 0x3ceb5b63… | $41k | $21.1k | 193.8% |
| 0x0a7fa359… | $-40k | $40k | -100.0% |
| 156 |
| 156 |
| 156 |
| 156 |