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0x9854…6bf2
0x9854aeab8b073c34ab7643f3e8aa316f3b616bf2
News SniperGrade FTilt warningarchetypes-v1
This wallet is categorized as a News Sniper because activity comes in bursts and entries arrive late in the market lifecycle.
Weekly activity shows 22 quiet weeks between spikes, and mean entry timing is 0.80 into the market life (later = closer to resolution).
Holds stay short (median 0.7 hours), matching event-driven rather than early forecasting.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A tilt warning is also attached: size or pacing after losses looks elevated even though another style won the primary label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:24:59 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$-497k
Open PnL
$-28.5k
Max drawdown
$1.05M
Underwater days
264
Equity curve
Board ranks
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $204k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $329k | $72.2k | $-68.5k | $-497k |
| Win rate | 88% | 42% | 43% | 47% |
| ROI | 242% | 5% | -1% | -4% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.011 | -0.032 | -0.041 |
| Markets | 8 | 34 | 176 | 360 |
| Best day | $0 | $329k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 169.98 | 1.09 | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Mean trade PnL | $41.2k | $2.01k | $-361 | $-1.22k |
| Median trade PnL | $34.3k | $-4.22k | $-2.77k | $-500 |
| Payoff ratio | 24.28 | 1.53 | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| Largest win | $82k | $242k | $242k | $242k |
| Largest loss | $-1.95k | $-230k | $-237k | $-237k |
| Expectancy | $41.2k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $200k | $107k | $45.3k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | 0.013 | -0.034 | -0.020 |
| Calmar | -0.476 | -0.476 | -0.476 | -0.476 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 263.5 | 263.5 | 263.5 | 263.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 25% | 15% | 4% | 3% |
| Concentration top-5 | 90% | 52% | 16% | 11% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 75% | 26% | 18% |
| Max win streak | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 231 | 1079 | 6038 | 13956 |
| Unique markets | 8 | 34 | 176 | 360 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 100% | 100% | 25% |
| Avg entry price | 0.440 | 0.366 | 0.449 | 0.463 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.166 | 0.057 | 0.020 | 0.011 |
| Maker share (notional) | 58% | 29% | 39% | 33% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Max concurrent | 7 | 22 | 110 | 229 |
| Disposition ratio | 2.94 | 0.77 | 0.99 | 0.68 |
| Add-to-winner share | 99% | 94% | 74% | 46% |
| Average-down share | 1% | 4% | 25% | 53% |
| Tilt ratio | 7.43 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 86% | 65% | 60% | 58% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.4549 | 0.2497 | 0.2253 | 0.2168 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.4281 | 0.2256 | 0.2048 | 0.1927 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.962 | 0.652 | 0.859 | 0.795 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-564 | $1.79k | $-176 | $-83 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 49.3% | 13.5% | -0.1% | -22.6% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0453 | -0.0453 | -0.0453 | -0.0453 |
| Alpha ($) | $-98 | $-98 | $-98 | $-98 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -28.0% | -28.0% | -28.0% | -28.0% |
| Contrarian score | -0.478 | -0.478 | -0.478 | -0.478 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.1033 | -0.1033 | -0.1033 | -0.1033 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- News Sniper: 86.1%
- Tilted Gambler: 70.0%
- Contrarian Fader: 64.3%
- Scalper: 63.9%
- Conviction Holder: 21.9%