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0x9648…6825 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0x9648…6825
0x96489abcb9f583d6835c8ef95ffc923d05a86825
This wallet is categorized as a Market Maker because it mostly provides liquidity rather than taking directional bets.
Maker share of notional is 96% and two-sided activity is 60%, which is structurally different from taker-heavy styles.
Inventory turns over quickly (turnover 67962.0), consistent with quoting both sides and recycling risk.
Little of its inventory is held to resolution (2%), so PnL comes from the spread and flow rather than forecast outcomes.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:25:58 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.66k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $120k | $415k | $-3.86M |
| Win rate | N/A | 60% | 57% | 64% |
| ROI | N/A | 47% | 7% | -7% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.991 | 0.044 | -0.058 |
| Markets | 3 | 47 | 95 | 247 |
| Best day | $-2.61k | $3.6k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 3.52 | 1.55 | 0.66 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $8.02k | $4.24k | $-6.38k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $1.58k | $239 | $718 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 2.35 | 1.16 | 0.37 |
| Largest win | N/A | $90.7k | $167k | $349k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-20.9k | $-119k | $-1.6M |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $12.1k | $38.9k | $464k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.620 | 0.088 | -0.042 |
| Calmar | -0.688 | -0.688 | -0.688 | -0.688 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 142.5 | 142.5 | 142.5 | 142.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 42% | 14% | 8% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 83% | 46% | 20% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 96% | 66% | 30% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 2 | 5 | 24 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 8 | 1128 | 8936 | 67962 |
| Unique markets | 3 | 47 | 95 | 247 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 101% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | 0.859 | 0.750 | 0.636 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.486 | 0.088 | 0.025 | 0.014 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 82% | 96% | 96% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 9.1 | 5.2 | 105.8 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 3.4 | 2.1 | 22.3 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0004 | 0.0201 | 0.1148 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0004 | 0.0238 | 0.0761 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | 0.362 | 0.512 | 0.495 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-21.8k | $-3.64k | $-889 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | -48.0% | 1162.0% | 662.0% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.2267 | -0.2267 | -0.2267 | -0.2267 |
| Alpha ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alpha ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Contrarian score | -0.222 | -0.222 | -0.222 | -0.222 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0035 | -0.0035 | -0.0035 | -0.0035 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations | 9382 |
| Worst day | $-2.61k | $-28.5k | $-47.5k | $-6.24M |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 100% | 73% | 68% | 38% |
| Spread capture | N/A | -0.0111 | -0.0258 | -0.0283 |
| Inventory turnover | 8.00 | 1128.00 | 8936.00 | 67962.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | 1.60 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Avg ticket | $45 | $361 | $253 | $322 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -954.00 | -366.89 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Parent For Derivative | $-3.51M | 66% | 76 |
| Geopolitics | $-1.13M | 57% | 56 |
| Politics | $-1.02M | 58% | 131 |
| Reza Pahlavi | $358k | 75% | 8 |
| Trump-Zelenskyy | $302k | 33% | 3 |
| Iran Regime | $204k | 100% | 12 |
| Trump | $182k | 72% | 39 |
| Ukraine | $168k | 67% | 3 |
| Claude 5 | $151k | 79% | 14 |
| UK | $-147k | 23% | 13 |
| Big Tech | $109k | 88% | 8 |
| AI | $105k | 73% | 26 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x3488f31e… | $-1.6M | $1.6M | -100.0% |
| 0x4c5701bc… | $-631k | $1.1M | -57.5% |
| 0x4b02efe5… | $-589k | $593k | -99.3% |
| 0xdc4b9ecb… | $-464k | $464k | -100.0% |
| 0x15aa3c12… | $-449k | $449k | -100.0% |
| 0x70909f0b… | $-422k | $460k | -91.8% |
| 0x291f0f60… | $-409k | $409k | -100.0% |
| 0x797d586a… | $-342k | $343k | -99.6% |
| 0xe5466727… | $341k | $92.4k | 369.3% |
| 0x3fc804e4… | $-286k | $286k | -100.0% |
| 0x773abaa5… | $-273k | $525k | -52.0% |
| 0x2e94bb8d… | $-261k | $305k | -85.8% |
| 0x98c0aa27… | $-260k | $260k | -100.0% |
| 0x80059ff4… | $-245k | $512k | -47.8% |
| 0x28f1e921… | $-226k | $226k | -100.0% |