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0x8f69…7df1
0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 2.27 and disposition ratio 2.19, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 55.1), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:27:56 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$283k
Open PnL
$-205k
Max drawdown
$166k
Underwater days
114
Equity curve
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $1.1k | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $-53 | $-19.4k | $-39k | $478k |
| Win rate | 70% | 54% | 64% | 73% |
| ROI | -1% | -47% | -13% | 6% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.828 | -0.120 | 0.070 |
| Markets | 12 | 42 | 122 | 388 |
| Best day | $986 | $986 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 0.98 | 0.17 | 0.61 | 1.56 |
| Mean trade PnL | $-5 | $-745 | $-291 | $151 |
| Median trade PnL | $25 | $3 | $19 | $10 |
| Payoff ratio | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| Largest win | $2.45k | $2.45k | $5.3k | $20k |
| Largest loss | $-2.7k | $-8.6k | $-12.2k | $-29.9k |
| Expectancy | $-5 |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $2.62k | $4.25k | $6.28k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.567 | -0.122 | 0.056 |
| Calmar | 1.588 | 1.588 | 1.588 | 1.588 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 85.5 | 85.5 | 85.5 | 85.5 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 48% | 31% | 10% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 98% | 80% | 29% | 5% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 97% | 46% | 8% |
| Max win streak | 4 | 4 | 19 | 65 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 6 | 9 | 31 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 66 | 634 | 1676 | 5995 |
| Unique markets | 12 | 42 | 122 | 388 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 100% | 94% |
| Avg entry price | 0.513 | 0.609 | 0.657 | 0.573 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.150 | 0.060 | 0.049 | 0.012 |
| Maker share (notional) | 77% | 86% | 88% | 88% |
| Two-sided share | 8% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 3.4 | 30.1 | 19.6 | 48.7 |
| Holding time median (h) | 3.4 | 21.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Max concurrent | 3 | 19 | 58 | 202 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 1.41 | 2.40 | 2.19 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | 14% | 25% | 38% |
| Average-down share | N/A | 82% | 72% | 59% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.94 |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 33% | 40% | 43% | 50% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.2002 | 0.3837 | 0.2268 | 0.0901 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.1548 | 0.2459 | 0.1828 | 0.1320 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.356 | 0.547 | 0.630 | 0.754 |
| Exit quality ($) | $52 | $128 | $6 | $61 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | 10.2% | 10.3% | -86.0% | 9.4% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.2325 | -0.2325 | -0.2325 | -0.2325 |
| Alpha ($) | $-297 | $-297 | $-297 | $-297 |
| Alpha ROI gap | -71.0% | -71.0% | -71.0% | -71.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.269 | 0.269 | 0.269 | 0.269 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.2248 | -0.2248 | -0.2248 | -0.2248 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 67.2%
- Favorite Grinder: 57.9%
- Scalper: 47.9%
- News Sniper: 41.8%
- Contrarian Fader: 25.9%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 2.58e-155; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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