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0x8f42…b88f · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0x8f42…b88f
0x8f42ae0a01c0383c7ca8bd060b86a645ee74b88f
Secondary: Conviction Holder
This wallet is categorized as an Early-Bird Forecaster because it enters early and often holds positions through resolution.
Mean entry timing is early (0.46 of market life) and 77% of resolved inventory is still held at settle.
Turnover stays low (7999.0), so the book looks like patient forecast positions rather than flow trading.
A close second label is Conviction Holder, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:14:46 UTC
Board ranks
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $549k |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $427 | $21.1k | $551k |
| Win rate | N/A | 100% | 93% | 74% |
| ROI | N/A | 76% | 19% | 12% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.473 | 0.310 | 0.130 |
| Markets | 3 | 3 | 15 | 514 |
| Best day | $60 | $362 |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | N/A | 136.49 | 3.96 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $427 | $1.51k | $558 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $427 | $401 | $96 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 10.50 | 1.43 |
| Largest win | N/A | $427 | $11.6k | $69.6k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-156 | $-18.7k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $157 | $430 | $6.9k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | N/A | 0.497 | 0.355 |
| Calmar | 24.892 | 24.892 | 24.892 | 24.892 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 137.0 | 137.0 | 137.0 | 137.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 100% | 54% | 8% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 89% | 17% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 99% | 25% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 1 | 11 | 39 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 1 | 19 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 3 | 3 | 76 | 7999 |
| Unique markets | 3 | 3 | 15 | 514 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 200% | 30% | 77% |
| Avg entry price | 0.197 | 0.197 | 0.362 | 0.617 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.568 | 0.568 | 0.275 | 0.018 |
| Maker share (notional) | 70% | 70% | 68% | 55% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 48.9 | 265.9 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 1.1 | 68.2 |
| Max concurrent | 2 | 2 | 13 | 403 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 3.44 | 0.46 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 100% | 83% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 0% | 17% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 92% | 77% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.1869 | 0.0297 | 0.0949 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.1869 | 0.0608 | 0.1217 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.893 | 0.456 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $-0 | $11 | $68 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | -0.0% | 19.9% | 14.2% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0228 | 0.0228 | 0.0228 | 0.0228 |
| Alpha ($) | $-1.42k | $-1.42k | $-1.42k | $-1.42k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -81.1% | -81.1% | -81.1% | -81.1% |
| Contrarian score | 0.153 | 0.153 | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0027 | -0.0027 | -0.0027 | -0.0027 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 48.7%
- Conviction Holder: 44.8%
- Scalper: 43.0%
- Favorite Grinder: 38.7%
- Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
| Worst day | $60 | $-158 | $-648 | $-21.5k |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 74% | 14% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | 100% | 84% | 43% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | 0.0494 | -0.0457 |
| Inventory turnover | 3.00 | 3.00 | 76.00 | 7999.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | 3.78 | 0.12 | 1.04 |
| Avg ticket | $707 | $707 | $182 | $581 |
| Median ticket | $606 | $606 | $15 | $18 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -7.10 | -8.33 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Geopolitics | $159k | 83% | 103 |
| Politics | $120k | 78% | 207 |
| Iran | $66k | 70% | 102 |
| Israel | $61.1k | 77% | 154 |
| Parent For Derivative | $48.6k | 65% | 34 |
| Middle East | $38.2k | 71% | 73 |
| Trump | $16.1k | 71% | 24 |
| Daily Strikes | $7.15k | 69% | 45 |
| Iran Offensive Strikes | $6.22k | 100% | 5 |
| Hezbollah | $5.32k | 90% | 10 |
| World | $-5.12k | 50% | 18 |
| Nuclear | $3.91k | 100% | 4 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0xd4bbf7f6… | $69.6k | $235k | 29.6% |
| 0x3488f31e… | $31.3k | $177k | 17.7% |
| 0x7c3f9482… | $-18.7k | $23.6k | -78.9% |
| 0xb3ebf217… | $16.6k | $55.5k | 29.8% |
| 0x70909f0b… | $16.5k | $70.7k | 23.3% |
| 0x6114a8a3… | $16.3k | $32.6k | 50.1% |
| 0xea828c98… | $16.3k | $22.6k | 72.2% |
| 0xd86a8160… | $15.5k | $63.2k | 24.5% |
| 0x4b7cd105… | $12.7k | $3.4k | 372.4% |
| 0x865303cc… | $11.6k | $74.8k | 15.5% |
| 0x149e2cdb… | $-10.9k | $10.9k | -100.0% |
| 0x43a0e99d… | $10.9k | $82.2k | 13.2% |
| 0x6f01b773… | $10.2k | $16k | 64.2% |
| 0xc7140ddb… | $10.1k | $33.6k | 29.9% |
| 0xdcf2b4dd… | $-9.4k | $21.1k | -44.6% |