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0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b
This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.
87% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (82%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.25).
That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.
Separately, skill grade B scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 12:11:23 UTC
Not currently ranked on a published top-50 board.
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | $12.7k | N/A | $89.9k | N/A |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $-54.1k | $151k | $92.6k |
| Win rate | N/A | 65% | 85% | 82% |
| ROI | N/A | -2% | 1% | 0% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -0.689 | 0.193 | 0.049 |
| Markets | 12 | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Best day | $3.32k | $5.61k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 0.79 | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $-677 | $610 | $136 |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $82 | $134 | $95 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.44 | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Largest win | N/A | $31.5k | $47.5k | $47.5k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-107k | $-107k | $-107k |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $19.3k | $18.8k | $20.4k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.030 | -0.454 | 0.189 | 0.030 |
| Calmar | 0.651 | 0.651 | 0.651 | 0.651 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 110.0 | 110.0 | 110.0 | 110.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 49% | 36% | 23% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 68% | 53% | 33% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 11 | 67 | 103 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 10 | 10 | 18 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 90 | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Unique markets | 12 | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 120% | 120% | 120% |
| Avg entry price | 0.868 | 0.811 | 0.811 | 0.811 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.638 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| Maker share (notional) | 97% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Max concurrent | 4 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Add-to-winner share | 0% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Average-down share | 0% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0702 | 0.0202 | 0.0291 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0862 | 0.0448 | 0.0717 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.607 | 0.888 | 0.888 | 0.888 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $50 | $-23 | $-64 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 82.2% | 41.1% | 90.9% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | 0.0750 |
| Alpha ($) | $326 | $326 | $326 | $326 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Contrarian score | -0.325 | -0.325 | -0.325 | -0.325 |
| Post-fill drift | 0.0416 | 0.0416 | 0.0416 | 0.0416 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Post-fill observations | 715 |
Joint probability 7.93e-31; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
| $58k |
| $58k |
| Worst day | $3.32k | $-52.7k | $-52.7k | $-231k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $-677 |
| $610 |
| $136 |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| 83% |
| 91% |
| 54% |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | 47% | 55% | 39% | 1% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 40% | 53% | 48% | 3% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 50% | 72% | 69% | 9% |
| >0.90 | N/A | 79% | 93% | 96% | 87% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| 1% |
| Spread capture | -0.0072 | 0.0032 | 0.0032 | 0.0032 |
| Inventory turnover | 90.00 | 2000.00 | 2000.00 | 2000.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | 1.30 | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| Avg ticket | $1.09k | $1.84k | $1.84k | $1.84k |
| Median ticket | $12 | $15 | $15 | $15 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.80 |
| 0.68 |
| 0.45 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Parent For Derivative | $-66k | 72% | 29 |
| Bitcoin | $60.2k | 96% | 120 |
| Reza Pahlavi | $58.5k | 67% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | $-57.5k | 83% | 18 |
| Sports | $47.8k | 77% | 268 |
| Politics | $-28.7k | 53% | 15 |
| Iran | $15.8k | 94% | 17 |
| Tennis | $14.9k | 80% | 40 |
| shah | $8.33k | 100% | 4 |
| Middle East | $7.31k | 100% | 3 |
| Economic Policy | $7.24k | 100% | 1 |
| World | $-6.04k | 67% | 6 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x04d9a1ea… | $-107k | $107k | -100.0% |
| 0xd4bbf7f6… | $-81.4k | $189k | -43.1% |
| 0x3488f31e… | $-39.4k | $132k | -29.9% |
| 0x9352c559… | $37.1k | $235k | 15.8% |
| 0xdbbbbd6e… | $35.6k | $12.1k | 294.4% |
| 0xda9d509d… | $-33.9k | $38.7k | -87.5% |
| 0xaa23528a… | $31.5k | $29.8k | 106.0% |
| 0xe443dab9… | $31k | $374k | 8.3% |
| 0x20fac1c9… | $-28.9k | $58.7k | -49.2% |
| 0x337e5c84… | $26k | $213k | 12.2% |
| 0x70909f0b… | $-23.4k | $352k | -6.6% |
| 0x0f5e01cf… | $-20k | $20k | -100.0% |
| 0x7b52405a… | $18.3k | $888k | 2.1% |
| 0x924a2942… | $18.1k | $59.9k | 30.2% |
| 0x291f0f60… | $-17.6k | $17.6k | -99.9% |
| 715 |
| 715 |
| 715 |